Houston Texans can pull off an upset over the Chiefs in Week 1 if these things happen

2. Turn J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus loose

The Texans can’t reasonably bet on Watt to stay healthy for a full 16-game slate, but he should be at the top of his game coming into Week 1. The franchise has certainly given him the required amount of rest during the preseason to allow him to approach the regular season with maximum energy.

Don’t discount Mercilus’ ability to be a significant pass rush threat from his linebacker spot. The key for the Texans in this game will be to get both guys going at the same time. They simply can’t afford to let Mahomes get comfortable in the pocket.

That means Houston’s defensive coaching staff will need to take some healthy risks. It won’t be enough to simply allow Watt and Mercilus to rush the passer on obvious passing downs. The Texans need to blitz their two best sack artists early and often.

Understandably, this will leave Houston’s secondary vulnerable to some big plays if they’re caught in the wrong coverage. This isn’t going to be a low scoring game. The Texans need to prioritize creating negative plays over everything else. That’s only going to happen if Watt and Mercilus create significant pressure on Mahomes right from the opening whistle. It’s an imperfect plan but it’s the only realistic play for Houston in this game.