The Whiteboard: Getting Chris Paul to the Milwaukee Bucks
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The Milwaukee Bucks need Chris Paul, and Chris Paul needs the Milwaukee Bucks.
For the Bucks, there’s a dire sense of urgency to help Giannis Antetokounmpo win a championship next season following the team’s incredibly disappointing second-round playoff exit, a failure that will only be compounded if (and probably when) the likely two-time MVP turns down a five-year supermax contract in the offseason. That would make him a free agent in 2021, and after two straight 60-win seasons resulted in premature playoff exits, the pressure is on to build a team that can actually contend in the postseason.
For Chris Paul, the best years of his career are behind him, and though he threw it back to his prime playing days in a vintage revenge tour for the Oklahoma City Thunder this year, he’s running out of time to finally break through and win a title. Despite his past failings, CP3’s postseason heroics in recent years with the Thunder, Houston Rockets and LA Clippers have set him up for quite the redemption arc. OKC’s decision to part ways with head coach Billy Donovan signals it’s time for the franchise to rebuild, and step one in doing so is trading Paul’s massive contract.
Neither the Bucks nor CP3 could ask for a better union if the goal is winning the 2021 NBA Finals, so it’s no surprise The New York Times’ Marc Stein reported rival teams expect Milwaukee to make a play for Paul if he’s made available.
The Bucks’ five-game defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat was due in part to Giannis’ ankle sprain, but that series highlighted their need for reliable ball-handlers who can create for themselves and for others — you know, someone like Malcolm Brogdon! When the Heat put up a wall of burly defenders in front of Giannis’ driving lanes, no one else was capable of making them pay for it.
Khris Middleton was nowhere near the Scottie Pippen that Giannis’ Michael Jordan needed, and Eric Bledsoe once again disappeared under the bright lights of playoff basketball … only this time without anyone in the stands to witness it firsthand. Mike Budenholzer’s offense routinely ground to a halt late in close games, and with the Greek Freak facing double-teams designed to keep him out of the paint, his lack of a perimeter/pull-up shot was exacerbated by the complete lack of shot creation from Milwaukee’s supporting cast.
Paul, an efficient 3-point shooter, mastermind floor orchestrator and one of the most lethal mid-range shooters in the game, could help with all of those problems. Not only would CP3-Giannis pick-and-rolls be unstoppable, but Paul could also set Middleton’s looks up on a silver platter, ease the pressure on Bledsoe, shift extra focus away from the Greek Freak, take over broken plays with his ability to get shots off from anywhere and present another go-to option in crunch-time.
There are several pitfalls to this potential union, however, not the least of which revolves around the financial logistics of such a trade.
The reason Paul’s trade value was practically nil until his throwback season is that he’s owed $41.4 million next season, with a $44.2 million player option for 2021-22 that he’d be insane to decline. That means this would be a two-year, $85.6 million commitment to a 35-year-old with an extensive injury history. One injury setback could be the final nudge convincing Giannis to leave the Bucks if they were to come up short again.
Even if Paul were to stay perfectly healthy — which would make the Milwaukee Bucks heavy favorites to win the title, to be fair — numerous hurdles remain in configuring a trade that would not only work financially but actually appease the Thunder’s likely demands, which will almost certainly require multiple first-round draft picks.
Playing around with the trade machine on TradeNBA.com, an offer of Bledsoe ($16.9 million salary next year), Ersan Ilyasova ($7 million, non-guaranteed), Robin Lopez ($5 million player option) and D.J. Wilson ($4.5 million) works financially, but it would require RoLo to pick up his player option first or agree to a sign-and-trade. Good luck with sign-and-trade scenarios that will ship him to a rebuild, away from his twin brother.
Another offer of Bledsoe, Ilyasova and Brook Lopez would rob Milwaukee of two starters and seems unlikely to appeal to the Thunder, given the remaining three years on the books for both Bledsoe and Lopez.
And therein lies the crux of the issue: Will two future firsts be enough to take on an extra year of Bledsoe’s deal (and possibly Lopez’s too) to shed CP3’s massive contract? Thunder general manager Sam Presti is playing the long game in accruing future draft assets, but the Bucks already owe first-rounders to the Boston Celtics (2020) and Cleveland Cavaliers (2022), which means the soonest they could offer another one is 2024.
Furthermore, would the Bucks even agree to part with two first-rounders, their starting point guard and possibly their starting center for one 35-year-old? And do any of these proposed deals offer enough value in terms of draft compensation and young talent for OKC?
Bledsoe is not as bad as his playoff reputation makes him seem, and he’s still only 30, but the Phoenix Suns can tell you all about his attitude and effort the last time he was on a rebuilding team. He’d be a great complementary guard to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the backcourt, but the Thunder may prefer to either keep Paul as a mentor for SGA or pursue offers elsewhere rather than trade for Bledsoe.
If the Thunder shut down all of these potential trade avenues, Milwaukee would have to loop in a third team, at which point the process gets even more complicated. And even a successful trade for a healthy CP3 that doesn’t involve shedding too much roster depth still wouldn’t address the Bucks’ largest issue, which is Mike Budenholzer’s infuriating shortcomings as a playoff coach.
In all honesty, running it back with a new coach — one capable of playing Giannis and Middleton more than 35 minutes in do-or-die playoff games and making honest-to-God adjustments on a game-to-game basis — might be enough to get Milwaukee over the hump next year, especially if the Greek Freak develops a refined post game or an improved perimeter shot over the offseason.
But the absence of Brogdon was glaring in this year’s conference semifinals defeat, and the clock is ticking for the Milwaukee Bucks to win a title with a soon-to-be two-time MVP. Chris Paul could be the answer to that tricky problem, just as the Bucks could be the answer to his, but it comes with a fair share of obstacles to consider first.
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