The Whiteboard: Is this the end of the Houston Rockets as we know them?

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The Houston Rockets are now staring at elimination and a 3-1 series deficit after a dispiriting 110-100 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4. James Harden finished 2-of-11 from the field with 5 turnovers (although he was 16-20 from the free-throw line). Russell Westbrook’s offense has actually been a much bigger issue across the entire series (19 assists to 18 turnovers, 7-of-24 from beyond the arc) but really it’s the defense that has given out.

The Rockets made a calculated gamble at the trade deadline — swapping Clint Capela for Robert Covington, putting four shooters around the primary ball-handlers and counting on their swarming defense to cover for whatever they were giving up in rim protection. At times during the restarted regular season, it looked like the bet was actually going to pay off. But the Lakers are averaging 113.2 points per 100 possessions in the series, a mark considerably above their regular-season average. The Lakers are averaging 10.0 offensive rebounds and 51.3 points in the paint per game. In the area where the Rockets were likely hoping to counter that — turnovers — Houston has only managed an advantage of plus-3, total, for the entire series.

The Rockets aren’t eliminated yet and comebacks from a 3-1 deficit are infamously possible. But it feels like something is coming apart at the seams. There have been rumblings all season that another discouraging playoff flameout would be the end for Mike D’Antoni. Slightly quieter rumblings have assigned the same fate to longtime GM Daryl Morey. With Rockets’ owner, Tillman Fertitta, publicly floundering and prioritizing profits big changes seem entirely probable.

What could the Houston Rockets change this offseason?

A new coach might not actually mean much, with the current roster, by design, so committed to a specific style of play. But Morey has been such a strategic innovator that any replacement for him would be pushing the Rockets toward convention, almost by default. Personnel changes would have to be done through trade, with no significant salaries or contributors coming off the books this offseason. That would be no easy task considering the size of Westbrook and Harden’s deals but a motivated tinkerer could certainly find a way.

What makes this all so confusing is that the Rockets are not the monolithic outlier they are sometimes presented as. Change has been a constant — they’ve cycled through Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Westbrook as sidekicks for Harden, each creating a different iteration on the plan. Each change has, mostly, pushed them in the same direction but the frustrating results aren’t necessarily an indictment of the plan. If Chris Paul doesn’t get hurt in 2018, they had a very good shot to break through against the Warriors. Even if they hadn’t gambled on the Covington trade, there’s no guarantee that Capela is the difference-maker in this series. Stepping off of this path and onto another one doesn’t necessarily make the Rockets better or bring them any closer to a title. It will be difference for the sake of difference.

The truth is, the Rockets could stick with this blueprint for the rest of Harden’s prime and never win a title, just as easily as they could make wholesale changes and find themselves in the same position. And a championship breakthrough could come in either case, that lightning strike of luck that every champion needs finally hitting in the right spot.

The question is whether Tillman Fertitta leans towards patience or proactivity.

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