James Paxton may have thrown his last pitch for the Yankees

The Yankees acquired James Paxton to bolster the top of their starting rotation, but injury issues may provide him an unceremonious exit from the Bronx.

James Paxton arrived in New York as a pitcher with the talent to help the Yankees succeed in the postseason. His inability to stay healthy this regular season may end New York’s interest in re-signing him in free agency this offseason.

When Paxton originally went on the Injured List with a strained forearm flexor the expectation was that he’d return to the active roster in time to be ready to contribute in the playoffs. A setback in his rehabilitation efforts now has his chances of returning this season in serious doubt. Manager Aaron Boone now believes it will be “challenging” for Paxton to return this season.

The Yankees knew Paxton was an injury risk when they first acquired him from the Mariners. The fact that he’s never thrown more than 160.1 innings in his major league career illustrates his inability to stay healthy for a full season. The veteran southpaw did manage to pitch over 150 innings in his first season in pinstripes. That gave some members in the organization hopeful that he could put his injury issues behind him.

Unfortunately, back trouble struck during the offseason and would have sidelined Paxton for the start of the regular season if not for an extended delay due to COVID-19. He only managed to throw 20.1 innings this season before going to the Injured List with his forearm injury.

The fact that he struggled mightily to the tune of a 6.64 ERA during that stretch gives the Yankees front office another red flag when it comes to re-signing Paxton in the offseason. He suffered from a noticeable dip in fastball velocity this season. It’s possible that was just related to some mechanical issues, but it’s also fair to wonder if it’s a product of age-related regression.

Add it all up and there are plenty of reasons for Brian Cashman and his front office to pass on giving Paxton a new contract this offseason. Despite his recent struggles, Paxton and his agent, Scott Boras, will push for any negotiations to start at his current salary of $12.5 million. The Yankees will not feel comfortable paying Paxton that sort of premium on any sort of long-term deal.

It’s worth noting that Paxton isn’t the only member of the current rotation who’s slotted for free agency. Masahiro Tanaka will also hit the open market in the offseason. Unlike Paxton, he’s been a reliable innings-eater for the Yankees during recent seasons. The combination of his consistency and high level of performance makes him more likely to earn a big-money deal from New York.

The organization also has two young arms ready to slot into Paxton’s spot in the rotation. Deivi Garcia’s recent work has captivated fans in the Bronx. Clarke Schmidt arguably began this season with more hype after his pre-season work. Both guys could be in line for spots in the regular-season rotation in 2021.

Paxton’s only real chances of earning a new deal with the Yankees will be to accept another short-term contract. Cashman might be willing to bring him back on a one or two-year deal at a salary close to his current level of compensation. It’s unclear whether or not Boras will be open to that kind of concession.

As it stands, it looks as if Paxton’s time in pinstripes is coming to a close. He’ll go down as an unsuccessful gamble by Cashman and his front office.