The road map to the return of college basketball

College basketball is coming back but what will its return look like?

Football fans are no doubt thrilled that the Big Ten opted to return to play next month, but college basketball fans have waited a long time for the resumption of their sport. That formality should be addressed later today when the NCAA is expected to vote on the start date for the college basketball season.

That date will be November 25, a delay of several weeks from the original early November target, but it will nevertheless allow us to have a representative college basketball season.

What will the upcoming season look like? Using some data from the committee’s meeting last week and some educated guesses here’s a potential road map to set up the 2020-21 college basketball season.

The start date

The proposed start date of Nov. 25 places college basketball inside a period that Seton Hall head coach Kevin Willard believes is a golden window to play games.

The period between the end of the first semester and the start of the second would allow teams to have what Willard is deeming a “soft bubble” on their campuses since only athletes and their coaches would be around.  Playing as many games in this window before the general student population returns to campus could reduce the need for costly bubbles to protect the safety of the athletes.

How will COVID testing be handled?

The NCAA has recommended that all athletes should have test results known within 72 hours of competition, and if basketball is being played multiple times a week those players will need to be tested at least three times per week.

The good news is the development of a cheaper rapid test, which the Big Ten has cited as the key to its return to football activities, should make testing more affordable for all programs to keep their athletes safe.

How many games will be played?

In a typical season, most schools play anywhere from 28-30 regular season games, although the number can max out at 31 if a school plays in a multi-team event (or MTE) like the Maui Invitational. In addition, schools are regularly required to play a certain minimum number of games to be eligible for postseason competition.

There is speculation that the maximum number of regular-season games will be set at 26, which can be pushed to 28 if a team chooses to participate in an MTE. The minimum threshold for postseason competition would be set at 13 as long as all 13 of the games are against Division I competition, building in a buffer in case a team has to miss some time due to positive COVID tests.

The non-conference schedule

The delay to the start of the season will severely impact the non-conference season but it is expected that there will still be a shortened non-conference schedule.

College basketball’s oversight committees are expected to issue a recommendation that at least four non-conference games be played as long as circumstances reasonably require. Most schools could fulfill this requirement by either participating in an MTE or scheduling games that don’t require a ton of travel.

The amount of non-conference games for each team could vary widely. Smaller schools could play as few as 4-6 games with a conference-heavy slate to reduce costs while the marquee programs could get more adventurous with non-conference games in order to test their teams ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

Will bubbles be employed?

There is certainly potential for bubbles for non-conference MTEs. ESPN, which has a significant stake in events like the Champions Classic, is expected to use the Orlando bubble the NBA is currently operating to hold eight MTEs in November, which college basketball reporter Jon Rothstein breaks down below.

There is also discussion about various other marquee non-conference events, such as the Big Ten-ACC Challenge and the Gavitt Games, potentially bubbling up to allow teams to play multiple games in a span of several days.

The regular season is a different story and could vary by league. Some of the power leagues can afford to set up regular season bubbles, which would maximize the chances of safety without disrupting class attendance since most institutions are offering virtual components anyway.

Smaller leagues may have to come up with a balancing act, such as the MAAC’s plan, which was provided to Jeff Goodman by commissioner Rich Ensor.

The bubble can be cost-prohibitive for some of the smaller leagues, so they could opt to play games on campus since they don’t require lengthy travel in most cases.

Major League Baseball has played its regular season in home stadiums without fans and learning from that approach could be the key to the low and mid-major seasons.

Will there be fans in attendance?

Fans truly add to the atmosphere of college basketball games but the odds of them being allowed are slim to none.

Since indoor arenas have the issue of recirculated air it would be a major virus risk to bring hundreds or thousands of fans into a building to watch a game. Expect attendance to be limited to the teams, support staff, broadcast personnel, and potentially family members of the players and/or coaches.

What will the NCAA Tournament look like?

Despite the ACC’s wild proposal to include everyone, it doesn’t feel like the NCAA will significantly expand the tournament this season. There could be motivation to add a few more teams to grab some revenue to make up for the cancellation of last March’s tournament, but logistics make it smarter to simply pick a field of 68 and go from there.

As of this moment, the NCAA Tournament is scheduled to feature a first four in Dayton, first-weekend action in eight sites (Providence, Boise, Detroit, Dallas, Wichita, Lexington, Raleigh and San Jose), regional action in four more cities (Minneapolis, Denver, Memphis, and Brooklyn) with the Final Four slated to take place in Indianapolis, which happens to be the home city of the NCAA.

Testing expenses would not be an issue since the NCAA is expected to handle that aspect of the event prep. Bubbles could come into play here as the NCAA could look to consolidate its action into fewer sites to minimize the amount of travel necessary throughout the tournament.

Fans likely wouldn’t be present unless the arrival of a vaccine would make it safer to hold some capacity of spectators, but all games would still be televised through the NCAA’s contract with CBS and Turner Sports.

What’s the bottom line?

Simply put, there will be a college basketball season and an NCAA Tournament. The NBA’s success with a bubble has shown that basketball can be safely played during a pandemic and the NCAA is highly motivated to successfully stage a tournament in order to recover revenue that was lost with last March’s cancellation.

It may not look like a traditional season, but college basketball will be back and this is something you can hang your hat on as the winter approaches.