Can the Celtics get past Bam Adebayo, and other questions for Game 2

Game 1 between the Celtics and Heat was an instant classic. With Game 2 looming tonight, what questions do each team need to answer?

The Miami Heat escaped Game 1 with a three-point overtime win, thanks to the last-second defensive heroics of Bam Adebayo. It was a crucial win but at least a dozen 50-50 plays throughout the game could have broken differently and changed the final outcome. The Boston Celtics are in the 1-0 hole looking to even things up but the margin is slim enough that both teams will be looking for tweaks and adjustments to get an edge.

Game 2 is tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN and here is what each team will be looking to figure out in this must-watch battle.

Can the Celtics get past Bam Adebayo?

Adebayo’s game-saving block was the highlight of the game, but it was just the most emphatic data-point in a terrific defensive performance. He was everywhere, switching onto Kemba Walker in the pick-and-roll, moving his feet and forcing contested jumpers; keeping Jayson Tatum out of the lane; swatting away more shots, and deterring others with nothing more than a head fake.

Adebayo’s range and versatility have been the backbone of the Heat’s defense all season long and his ability to contain in space and challenge shots at the rim was huge in Game 1. According to the NBA’s player tracking statistics, the Celtics totaled 50 drives in Game 1, a slight increase from the 44.5 they’ve averaged per game across the entire playoffs. But they made just 7-of-19 shot attempts off those drives (36.8 percent), down from 48.1 percent for the playoffs as a whole.

Boston generated some other good things with penetration — 14 free throw attempts and seven assists — but it was rarely the easiest option, the finishes at the rim that they thrived on in knocking off the Raptors and 76ers.

One of the issues for Boston is that their current roster doesn’t allow for any real wrinkles to throw at Adebayo. Daniel Theis and Robert Williams are versions of the same player archetype and using either player at center means they’re either screening and letting Adebayo switch onto a ball-handler, or they’re standing in the corner or lurking on the baseline. Neither player has any range and they just can’t threaten the defense from those spots, which gives Adebayo the ability to play free safety in the middle of the floor.

The Celtics were outscored in the minutes Grant Williams played center and while, in theory, his shooting and passing are a different look than what Theis and Williams offer, neither is really significant enough to bend the Heat defense. Going super small with Semi Ojeleye at center is an even less appealing answer to the same problem. If Gordon Hayward is healthy enough to play at some point, it might be interesting to see the Celtics go five-out with Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Hayward and Jaylen Brown, really giving Adebayo all he can handle on the perimeter. We could also see the Celtics running more small-small pick-and-rolls, with Walker or Smart screening for Tatum, trying to separate him from Jimmy Butler and creating a mismatch against a shorter defender. But there is just no obvious skeleton key for unlocking this puzzle.

Who breaks first: The Celtics’ defensive rotations or the Heat’s ball movement?

The Heat’s egalitarian ball-movement has been one of the signatures of this playoff run but it was near peak in Game 1. According to the NBA’s player tracking statistics, the Heat threw 302 passes in Game 1, 54 of which were potential assists (passes that would have led to an assist if the shot was made). They’d been averaging 48.7 potential assists per game in the playoffs to that point.

Several of the Heat’s big, momentum-changing 3-pointers came after a dozen passes, initiated by a drive and kick and then the ball flying around the perimeter, tugging the Celtics’ defenders through their rotations until an open shooter was found. That relentless ball movement was part of the reason the Heat made 16-of-36 3-pointers in the game. But only 12 of those 36 attempts were classified as wide open by the NBA’s tracking statistics (no defender within six feet of the shooter), and they hit a perhaps unsustainably high percentage of outside looks that were well defended.

This kind of execution is exhausting, for both the offense and the defense. If the Celtics’ rotations lose their sharp edges first, some of those contested looks are going to have a bit more space. If the Heat slow down their ball movement, firing shots up a pass or two quicker than they did in Game 1, they could lose that space and give the Celtics a breather. Game 1 was such an outlier performance in both directions we can assume at least one team won’t be able to execute to the same level in Game 2. The question is which team.

Can any single player control the action?

A half-dozen players traded off in Game 1, each controlling specific moments and looking like the best player on the floor. For the Heat, it was often Butler and Goran Dragic, with Adebayo rising (literally) to the challenge in the final moments. For Boston, Smart made some big plays and Tatum dominated for stretches but no one was able to consistently leverage an advantage from start to finish.

Trading momentum and possessions like we saw in Game 1 is going to lead to another close game, with the potential for randomness to sneak in and sow chaos in the final results. If the Celtics are going to put up a statement win in Game 2, they need Tatum to win far more possessions in his individual matchup with Butler, or they’ll need to Walker to really shake off his struggles. (And again, I wonder if letting those two play a two-man game with Tatum attacking Dragic or Herro on a switch might be worth a shot).

The Heat seem fine with sharing the spotlight, and letting everyone play hero for a few minutes has worked well for them to this point. But they needed an epic block, one of the most clutch defensive plays in NBA history to escape with a win. It will take three more victories to get to the Finals and what’s carried them to this point might not be enough — someone like Butler or Dragic may really need to take on more offensive primacy.