The Boston Celtics and the best-laid plans

The Boston Celtics looked poised to become the Eastern Conference’s next great dynasty. But is it possible their window is already closing?

For 180 million years, dinosaurs roamed the earth. Forget the Bill Russell Celtics or the Michael Jordan Bulls — this was the dynasty. They had size and speed, they defended tenaciously, and if Michael Crichton is to be believed, some of them could really shoot. Then one day an asteroid hit. Had it arrived a few minutes later, it would have landed in the ocean, and the dinosaurs might well still be around. Instead, it detonated near what’s now the town of Chicxulub, Mexico, and the dynasty was over. No matter how much time and care goes into building something, it’s impossible to foresee the moment it’s all rendered moot.

Tonight the Boston Celtics face elimination in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Miami Heat. Boston’s playoffs officially began five weeks ago against Philadelphia. But while the 76ers are more famously linked with talk of their “Process,” it’s the Celtics’ process, one that started seven years ago, that’s due for re-evaluation. Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens have overseen growth from 25 wins in year one of their project to their third conference finals in five years. But the build-up promised so much more than perennial close-but-no-cigars. For years Boston seemed primed to be the NBA’s next dynasty. Should they fall to the Heat, it’s fair to wonder if their time has already passed.

From 2008-2013, the Celtics won a championship, reached a second Finals and played in three conference finals. The rebuild began in 2013 when they traded Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry to the Nets for three players who’d all be gone in two years and Brooklyn’s first-round picks in 2014, 2016 and 2018, along with the right to swap firsts in 2017. Financial flexibility and draft capital are the coin of the NBA realm. Getting both for a 37-year-old and two 35-year-olds was like converting the change under your couch cushions into a billionaire’s blank check.

For the next few years, the Celtics were in the catbird seat. Pierce and Terry lasted only one year in Brooklyn, with Garnett gone a half-season after. The Nets won one playoff series, then suffered four straight losing seasons. Boston landed the third picks in the 2016 and 2017 drafts courtesy of the deal and took Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The Tatum pick came care of the 76ers, who flipped from No. 3 to No. 1 and threw in a future first to secure Markelle Fultz, who played all of 33 games over two seasons before being traded.

The one time Boston’s own pick was in the lottery, 2014, they drafted another key piece, Marcus Smart. Tatum, Brown and Smart rank first, second and third in playoff minutes this year. The Celtics clearly drafted well, which isn’t as simple as having lots of chances. Orlando’s had six lottery picks the past seven years with nothing near Boston’s haul to show for it. During Philadelphia’s 2013-2017 losing-as-performance-art, the 76ers acquired seven players taken in the lottery. Only Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons remain, as does the question of whether they can even play together.

In addition to drafting well, Boston was allegedly primed for years to land any superstar who became available in free agency or via trade. Their treasure chest of draft assets and absence of stifling contracts, along with having won more titles than any other franchise (though only one in the past 34 seasons), seemingly made the question of adding superstars a question of when and not if. And land them they did. So far, so good, right? But as the asteroid taught us, or at least the dinosaurs, “when” can be awfully meaningful.

Why do the Boston Celtics keep coming up short?

The Celtics spent over a quarter of a billion dollars to sign Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker. Hard to argue with either move. Hayward is a Swiss army knife scoring wing; Walker is a four-time All-Star who averaged over 25 points a game the year before moving to Boston. No one could argue with that haul. Just like no one could predict Hayward would break his leg just five minutes into his Celtics debut and miss the entire season. Just like no one could predict going from Isaiah Thomas to Kyrie Irving (possibly Ainge’s original sin) would be a downgrade. Following the fallout of Irving’s failed final year in Boston, Walker seemed a seamless replacement.

Sometimes less really is more, especially when it comes to drama; maybe Tatum and Brown don’t make the leaps they did this year if Kyrie’s still running the show. Still, Irving’s worst-ever year from the field would be among Walker’s best, and in the playoffs, Kemba has somehow shot worse from deep (30 percent) than Irving last year (31 percent). The dinosaurs couldn’t predict an asteroid would hit; if it had minutes later, we’re talking a whole different reality. The Celtics couldn’t predict injuries or point guard regression. If Hayward breaks his leg six months earlier or any of their expected backcourt upgrades panned out as predicted, it’s a whole different reality.

For a long time, the expectation was Boston would be frontrunners for Anthony Davis whenever New Orleans accepted they’d have to trade him. But they couldn’t, in part because of trade complications due to he and Kyrie each having signed Rose Rule extensions (teams can only trade for one such player, which Boston had already done with Irving). But there was also talk that their treatment of Thomas turned off AD’s father, as well as other players. Who knows how Davis felt seeing the way that went down?

Now Davis is hitting playoff buzzer-beaters for the Lakers while the Celtics are the only conference finalist without an All-Star center. Between their last championship in 2008 and this year, Boston reached the playoffs 10 times. In all but one of those postseasons, they were eliminated by a team led by someone who finished top-four in MVP voting that season: LeBron James (five times), Giannis Antetokounmpo, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant. The rebuild was supposed to result in the Celtics landing that guy. Hayward and Walker are nice players, but neither is of that caliber. Tatum finished 12th in MVP voting this year. Maybe someday he’s that guy. But Walker and Hayward are now 30. Even if Tatum or Brown reach the level of the truly elite, it may come too late to benefit this particular portion of the rebuild.

This is Brad Stevens’ seventh year as head coach. How long can his voice resonate? Every coach reaches a point where they no longer get through, especially when their team keeps failing to breakthrough. LeBron and Kawhi Leonard may be out west now, and maybe sooner than later Giannis joins them. But there’s no guarantee better days are ahead.

The Bucks are making noise about going into the luxury tax to strengthen their squad. Toronto never lets up and is rumored to be a potential destination should Antetokounmpo leave Milwaukee. The 76ers may be clunky, but they’re certainly not hopeless; perhaps bringing in Mike D’Antoni could invigorate them, or turning one of their two stars into a trade package that better complements the one they keep. Brooklyn debuts a healthy Kevin Durant next year along with Kyrie. And oh, yeah: Miami, on the verge of winning the East after knocking off the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds, figures to improve as their youth develops and free agents turn an eye toward the rising sun over South Beach.

The Heat are one win away from the Finals after not winning a playoff series the past three years. The Lakers are in the same position after a seven-year drought of their own. The Celtics, winners of seven series the past four years, are no longer the golden child with an indefinitely bright and limitless future. If they fall to Miami, questions will be asked. One of the toughest will be whether the Stevens era’s best days are already behind them. Years of time and care went into putting this team together. Did we take their ascent for granted? Time will tell. That’s what endangers all of us, ultimately, from the dinosaurs to the best-laid plans of NBA teams: time. How much more do these Celtics have? No one knows. In that way, time is like life: when it’s up, nobody warns you. But there’s no mistaking it.