The Whiteboard: 5 keys for Nuggets to overcome ANOTHER 3-1 deficit

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First things first: No, the Denver Nuggets aren’t just going to magically come back from a 3-1 series deficit against the Los Angeles Lakers just because they’ve done it twice already in these 2020 NBA Playoffs.

It’s not impossible; it’s just highly unlikely against a championship-caliber team lead by two top-10 superstars who are acutely aware of all the 3-1 narratives and jokes.

No team had ever overcome two 3-1 deficits in a single postseason before these Nuggets, but if they want to reach the Finals, they’ll have to triple up on that accomplishment, and they’ll have to earn every step of it against the Lakers and, let’s be honest, an unfavorable whistle.

Bad calls — like LeBron James’ two uncalled fouls against Jamal Murray down the stretch of Game 4 — can’t be helped, but the Nuggets still have a few tangible areas for improvement to focus on, especially if they want to keep the outcome out of the officials’ hands.

This series has been a lot tighter than the 3-1 count indicates. If not for one buzzer-beater and a couple of questionable whistles, it could very easily be 3-1 in Denver’s favor. Bearing that in mind, here are five keys the Nuggets can address in Game 5 and beyond:

1. Get more out of Paul Millsap and Gary Harris

As Denver Stiffs’ Ryan Blackburn pointed out, Paul Millsap and Gary Harris — two of Denver’s five starters — have combined to average 10 points per game on 28.9 percent shooting in the conference finals so far. In Game 4, they posted 8 points on 2-of 8 shooting. That’s obviously awful.

The problem is, even with Harris coming off yet another injury and Millsap’s limited mobility/jumping ability, those two are probably still Denver’s best defenders. The Nuggets need to be able to play them more than 19 and 17 minutes, respectively, like they did in Game 4. That will require them to actually hit a few more shots.

2. Take care of defensive boards

Through four games, the Nuggets have given up nearly 10 offensive rebounds and 14.3 second-chance points per game. In Game 4, with Nikola Jokic in foul trouble and Millsap’s hangtime all but negligible, those numbers jumped to 12 offensive rebounds and a whopping 25 second-chance points for the Lakers.

When Anthony Davis makes up his mind to attack the offensive glass like he did late in Game 4, Millsap stands little chance of jumping with him. But the Nuggets have to make a concerted effort to protect the defensive glass better, because this is not the first time in this series that second-chance opportunities have come back to bite them late in close games.

3. Cut down Mason Plumlee’s minutes

Also known as: Keep Nikola Jokic out of foul trouble. The Nuggets superstar has played 25, 39, 37 and 36 minutes in these four conference finals games. Game 1 was a blowout, but he’s tallied between 4-5 fouls in all four contests, which has forced Michael Malone to play Mason Plumlee just a smidge more than Denver should prefer, especially when the Joker needs to be pushing toward 40 minutes if at all possible.

Even Plumlee’s 14 minutes in Game 4 were too many. The problem is Jokic’s foul trouble opens the door to additional minutes for Plumlee, who, in addition to not being Nikola-freaking-Jokic, has not looked comfortable for most of this series.

This isn’t even about Plumlee’s defensive gaffe at the end of Game 2 that led to AD’s buzzer-beater. The Nuggets need to ever-so-slightly cut down on his minutes, which requires Jokic to stay out of foul trouble first.

4. Limit LA’s transition opportunities

The Lakers want to get out in transition, and Denver’s turnovers and missed shots have frequently led to poor transition defense, opening the door for easy LA buckets. The top seed in the West has nearly doubled the Nuggets in fast break points for the series (62-34) and has averaged 19.0 points off turnovers per game.

In a tight contest, getting easy baskets wherever you can is essential. In the fourth quarter on Thursday night, the Lakers got 5 points off turnovers, 5 fast break points and 5 second-chance points — a recipe for disaster for Denver.

In a series that’s been so evenly matched despite the 3-1 deficit, the Nuggets can’t afford to let LA — which ranked second in the league in fast break points during the regular season — generate easy offense. Transition defense has to be a bigger focus in Game 5 and beyond, especially against a team that thrives on the break.

5. Nikola Jokic playing Dwight Howard off the floor

Dwight Howard was a difference-maker as a starter in Game 4. He finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds, including 5 offensive boards, while Jokic only managed 16 points and 7 rebounds. The disparity between the Nuggets’ best player and a guy who was a bench big just a few games ago has to be much, much larger in Game 5.

Whether it’s by getting Howard in foul trouble, avoiding foul trouble himself or just plain playing D12 off the floor with a dominant showing, Jokic has to decisively win this matchup and make sure Howard isn’t an X-factor moving forward.

Playoff series often come down to punches and counterpunches, with role players unexpectedly stepping up to make an impact and shift the momentum in their team’s favor. That’s exactly what Howard provided for the Lakers in Game 4, and it cannot happen again if Denver wants pull off yet another improbable comeback.

Jamal Murray has been sensational, and will likely continue to perform at this unbelievably high level he’s soared to throughout this postseason. Now the Nuggets need Jokic to rejoin him on that plane.

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Recaps:

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