College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six projections after Week 4

There is a major shakeup with the latest College Football Playoff projections after Oklahoma and LSU were upset.

The College Football Playoff may have two different teams getting in this year and a new champion crowned.

With the SEC returning to action in Week 4, the sport is starting to feel a little more normal. Six conferences are playing games, with the remaining four planning to begin play in the next month or so. However, a pair of top-six teams lost on Saturday, as the No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners fell to the Kansas State Wildcats and the No. 6 LSU Tigers stumbled vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Here are the four projected teams to make the College Football Playoff.

Projected 2021 College Football Playoff teams through Week 4

Unless the Clemson Tigers feel like dropping a game to the Miami Hurricanes, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Pittsburgh Panthers or the Virginia Tech Hokies, Dabo Swinney‘s team should get to the ACC Championship game unscathed at 11-0 (10-0) to face Notre Dame, or maybe even Miami, in a rematch. Though they can afford one loss this season, it’s probably not happening.

Clemson will hold onto the top spot in these rankings for as long as the Tigers remain undefeated. Unlike last year, they will get a boost from playing several quality teams in conference play. A loss would knock them down to No. 3, but as long as the Tigers take care of business and beat whoever they face in Charlotte, they will make the playoff for the sixth season in a row.

It will be a tad controversial for the Ohio State Buckeyes to get the No. 2 seed, but they project as one of only two undefeated Power 5 teams this year. Maybe the Oregon Ducks can do it in the Pac-12, but we need to see a schedule first before thinking Mario Cristobal’s team can run the gauntlet. But going 9-0 with a Big Ten Championship under its belt gets Ohio State into the dance.

Ohio State will have three signature wins on the year: at the Penn State Nittany Lions on Halloween, at home to the Michigan Wolverines to close out regular-season play and a neutral-site victory over the Wisconsin Badgers for the Big 12 title. Through nine games aren’t 10, 11 or 12, a perfect Buckeyes team belongs in the College Football Playoff to compete for a championship.

Though I’m not sure when it will come, the Alabama Crimson Tide will probably drop one game this season. At this time, if any team is capable of coming out of the 10-game SEC slate unscathed, it’s Nick Saban’s team. However, it’s still too early to know if any team is capable of it. Because I’m assuming one regular-season loss, they’ll get in as the SEC Champions at No. 3.

Alabama will win the SEC West over the Auburn Tigers, thanks to a fantastic performance in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide will face the Florida Gators in the 2020 SEC Championship game in Atlanta. Though the Gators will be a better team than they are expecting, the result will be the same as it was back in 2015 and 2106 with the Crimson Tide clinching a playoff berth.

And we have arrived at the big shakeup this week. Though we’re not sure how sustainable it will be, Florida gets the last spot in as a two-loss, non-champion over two Power 5 champions and another high-quality two-loss, non-champion. It’s early, but it feels like Florida will be SEC East rival Georgia down in Jacksonville to advance to the SEC Championship game to face Alabama.

It’s hard to deny what we saw out of the Gators’ passing game with quarterback Kyle Trask and tight end Kyle Pitts. Though the defense gave up a ton of points to Matt Corral and Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss offense, Georgia may not be able to hang with them in a barn-burner. If you want proof, just go watch the first half of the Dawgs’ game vs. the Arkansas Razorbacks from Week 4.

First two teams projected out through Week 4

Picking the first two teams out isn’t as easy as picking the four teams in. The gap between Florida at No. 4 and whoever is No. 5 feels gargantuan. So since I’ve been hyping up the ACC being more than just Clemson this year, how about a team whose only two losses before Selection Sunday were to the Tigers in Notre Dame? Having that championship data point helps them here.

Because two SEC teams are projected to get in this week, Notre Dame moves up to the first team out. Since Florida didn’t lose to the same opponent twice in a calendar year, that serves them to get in over the Irish, despite having one less win on its resume. Again, the Selection Committee will agree that the SEC gauntlet was more menacing than the ACC gauntlet in their decisions.

Admittedly, I might be knocking Texas a bit, but hear me out. I’ve had them slated as the Big 12 runner-up throughout the season and now I have them winning the Big 12. Unfortunately, Texas won’t be back because they won’t have made it to the College Football Playoff. They needed overtime to beat the Texas Tech Red Raiders by a Big 12 basketball score on Saturday, so chill out.

If Texas does go undefeated in Big 12 play and wins the title bout, then yes, the Longhorns will be back and in the playoff. However, the Big 12 has looked especially week thus far with key teams like Oklahoma and the Iowa State Cyclones losing, as well as the Oklahoma State Cowboys looking largely underwhelming at 2-0. Simply put, the Big 12 doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt in 2020.

New Year’s Six Bowl projections through Week 4

• Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 4 Florida Gators*
• Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide*
• Cotton Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Texas Longhorns
• Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
• Orange Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs
• Peach Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs. UCF Knights

* = Denotes College Football Playoff national semifinal

For the College Football Playoff, No. 1 Clemson will host No. 4 Florida in the Sugar Bowl and No. 2 Ohio State will host No. 3 Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin plays Texas in the Cotton Bowl, Oregon plays Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, Notre Dame plays Georgia in the Orange Bowl and Miami plays UCF out of the Group of 5 in the Peach Bowl. All six of these matchups are great.

The only thing we know for certain is these playoff projections will change again after Week 5.

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