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The 2020 NBA Finals are finally here, and just like we all predicted, it’s the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat! Wait, what?
This championship may not deserve an asterisk, but there’s no question the four-month hiatus and bubble environment without home-court advantage have yielded some surprising upsets. Bubble basketball in Orlando has been high-quality and thrilling, but it would’ve taken some bold predictions for anyone to have projected LA and Miami meeting in the Finals back in March.
In that same vein, it’s time to buck the conventional consensus that the Lakers are the favorites to win the title, that LeBron James will win Finals MVP and that this series will be over in 5-6 games. We all know that’s most likely to happen, but what’s the fun in that? We’re going bold or we’re going home, making five predictions for the series (which I fully reserve the right to rescind at any time because they’re so brazen). Let’s dive in.
5. Danny Green is the Lakers’ third-best player in the series
This may not seem all that bold, but just ask any Lakers fan how bad Danny Green has been in the bubble and they’ll happily tell you this might be the most bat-s**t prediction on the list. In 15 playoff games, the sharpshooter formerly known as Green — who just posted .465/.455/.841 shooting splits during the Toronto Raptors’ championship run last year — has made only 35.5 percent of his shots for the Lakers.
Sure, he’s hitting a respectable 36.4 percent of his triples and taking 5.1 of them per game, but this is a guy who’s a career 40 percent sniper from deep! A guy who shot a scorching 45.5 percent from downtown last year and was seen as a quietly massive loss for the Raptors in the offseason!
Facing a Heat team chock-full of talented two-way wings, Green’s 3-point shooting and perimeter defense will be paramount. The Lakers’ third-best player has oscillated between Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard, Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope throughout this postseason run. Coming off a conference finals series in which he posted dismal .293/.320/.714 shooting splits, it’s time for Green to bounce back and surprise LA fans with a clutch Finals performance.
4. Anthony Davis dominates his matchup with Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo has arguably been the Heat’s best player during their Finals run, which is incredible for a third-year player who’s still only 23 years old. Adebayo took over down the stretch of Game 6 in the conference finals and ended the Boston Celtics’ season, becoming the only player in NBA history to post at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists per game on 60 percent shooting in a conference finals. For the playoffs, he’s averaging 18.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game on 57.1 percent shooting. It’s no surprise his showdown with Anthony Davis is being tabbed as the most critical matchup of the series.
However, there’s a big difference between facing Myles Turner, Brook Lopez and Daniel Theis vs. the Unibrow. Bam’s accomplishments to this stage shouldn’t be undersold, but Davis has arguably been LA’s best player during this postseason run, and this upcoming series is exactly what the Lakers got him for.
LeBron James has become a master of picking his spots and feeling out the momentum of the game to know when to make his presence felt, but Davis is their constant, averaging 28.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals per game on .571/.366/.810 shooting splits in the playoffs. He stepped his scoring up to 31.2 points per game in the conference finals, and as he started knocking down jump shots too, it felt like he was starting to peak at the perfect time.
AD vs. Bam is the sexiest matchup of this series (no offense to LeBron vs. Andre Iguodala for the 17th time), but as bright as Adebayo’s future is, he’s going to be thoroughly outmatched now that the Brow has his first championship in his sights.
3. Miami’s wings will hold LeBron James in check
So far in our predictions, Danny Green is due for a renaissance and AD is going to win his matchup with Bam in a one-sided affair. All the Lakers need to steamroll their way to Championship No. 17 is for LeBron to be the best or second-best player on the floor. Unfortunately, Miami has the requisite number of burly wing defenders to make him work for everything he gets.
No one is going to stop LeBron James in a Finals series, but the Heat have a decent shot of at least containing him. Between Iguodala, Jae Crowder and of course Jimmy Butler, they have strong, defensive-minded wings to throw at the King, who will be forced to continue bringing focus and effort on the defensive end as well. When LA tries to create mismatches on the pick-and-roll, even the mobile Adebayo can briefly survive on some of those switches against James.
LeBron is looking to win his fourth title in 10 Finals appearances. He’s averaged a 27-10-9 stat line in this postseason run, he’s more than comfortable on this stage and he’s looking to finish his quest for his first championship as a Laker in this bizarre bubble environment. This is his moment. But the Heat have the tools to throw a wrench in those plans and at least prevent him from going ballistic, and if that’s the case ….
2. Heat in 6
The Lakers have the two best players in this series, but the Heat may have Nos. 3-9. AD dominating his matchup with Bam makes this outcome seem farfetched, but Miami is a far more balanced team and has a legitimate shot at slowing LeBron down. If that happens, and if guys like Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro continue to hit big shots down the stretch of close games, LA could find itself in a dogfight.
That’s exactly where the Heat like to operate as an unruly blend of never-back-down attitude and stellar execution, which has become a staple of any Erik Spoelstra team. Miami is plenty familiar with James’ game, and though no one is ever going to shut him down, Spo stands the best chance of limiting him on one end and either exploiting or avoiding him on the other (though LeBron’s defensive lapses have been much fewer and further between this year).
The Heat have a plethora of two-way players, shooters, penetrators and shot creators that will make it hard for the Lakers to hone in on any one player, because anyone in a Miami jersey can be a thorn in an opponent’s side on any given night. They move the ball well, execute late, defend and get relatively consistent production across the board. That could matter if the drop-off between LeBron, AD and the rest of the Lakers supporting cast is so steep, and it’s the reason we’re going with the BOLD prediction that Miami will prevail in six games.
1. Goran Dragic wins Finals MVP
If the Heat win the series, LeBron James probably won’t win Finals MVP. If it didn’t happen in 2015 in a losing effort, it probably won’t happen this time around either. To that end, the most logical Finals MVP candidates from Miami are either Adebayo, Butler or Dragic.
In keeping with our first four predictions, Adebayo is getting convincingly outplayed by AD, so he’s out. That leaves Butler and Dragic, but since Jimmy Buckets winning Finals MVP wouldn’t be much of a bold prediction, we’re going with the Dragon, who’s actually narrowly led Miami in playoff scoring at 20.9 points per game.
Dragic had a rough conference finals against Boston, but he’s still shooting 45.3 percent from the floor, has made 36.3 percent of his 6.8 3s per game and has also chipped in 4.7 assists and 4.2 boards per game for good measure. His defense won’t ever stand out compared to Bam and Butler, but if Dragic puts up an efficient 20-5-4 stat line, explodes for a couple of games and continues to be a pain for opponents to deal with, as has been the case all postseason long?
All we’re saying is, don’t rule it out.
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