Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw for three more touchdowns and more than 300 yards in the win vs. Virginia, but dissecting every throw tells more than the box score numbers.
The biggest name in college football has continued to play well to begin his critical junior season. The Clemson Tigers have been nearly unbeatable with Trevor Lawrence under center. His high-level of play has continued through three games.
Lawrence has been under the microscope since the start of his career because of his recruiting status and immense talent. The lanky passer has proven clutch, deadly, and capable of tremendous accomplishments. Though Joe Burrow laid claim to the best season ever for a collegiate quarterback in 2019, Lawrence has the chance to be the best all-time college quarterback.
We’re going to track him closely each week and analyze his play with close scrutiny as the future top draft pick progresses. His raw stats don’t matter as much as his process, which we’ll track by counting catchable passes and situational effectiveness. I’ve tracked over 70 individuals’ seasons since 2012, and Lawrence’s data already compares to some of the best prospects we’ve seen in that timeframe.
The Tigers were able to win with a comfortable 41-23 margin despite lacking the sharpness they’ve had in prior weeks. It didn’t matter as far as winning, but Lawrence’s raw numbers were an example of how missed opportunities and a dip in effectiveness by the team hurt individual stats. Lawrence completed 25-of-38 attempts for 329 yards and three touchdowns but there’s a lot to dissect there.
Lawrence’s consistency had been improved until this game, with him moving the offense down the field more methodically with accuracy than being reliant on his playmakers to create post-catch or offensive design to spring big plays. It’s not that Lawrence hasn’t created a ton of offense on his own, but the 2019 Tigers’ offense overwhelms with the mixture of design, playmaking talent and Lawrence’s brilliance.
The 2020 offense seemed more reliant on Lawrence until this game. Travis Etienne and Amari Rodgers took over as they shredded through defenders for big plays, and then Lawrence delivered several huge knockout blows. His consistency dipped though as protection broke down and he aired a few tough passes.
Trevor Lawrence showed off his deep ball in the Clemson win vs. Virginia
Let’s flesh through some of the numbers first. Of his 38 total attempts, seven were throwaways under pressure. Another 11 were behind the line of scrimmage, already putting him at just 20 attempts of at least one yard. He almost evenly distributed those attempts, with 12 being in 0-10 range, four from 11-19 and six 20 or more yards downfield.
These attempts weren’t made evenly, though. Lawrence was an excellent five-of-six with a touchdown on third down and 10 or more. He was accurate on three-of-six deep passes. The other two touchdowns came on attempts behind the line of scrimmage.
His big plays were the ones to focus on with positives, whereas the first two weeks showed the development of the little details in his mechanics. The video above shows an example of his feel for the pocket, reading the leverage and space on a third down, and drifting towards his target to give an excellent opportunity for his receiver to get upfield quickly.
There’s a confidence that Lawrence has in himself that is a higher-level than what we’ve seen before. He grew within the offense’s hierarchy last year, becoming the playmaker of the unit and transcending the scheme. We’ve consistently seen this show in the form of little movements and not panicking under pressure.
That’s not to say he was perfect, of course. He was only two-of-six under pressure on throws he attempted to complete, and as mentioned he threw another seven away, so he wasn’t efficient with a man coming at him. His process was rushed and he missed a couple of throws that required better placement or more touch.
This isn’t the end of the world to have a game with some of these misses but it’s the first time this year he looked more like a big-play creator than a consistent drive extender. That’s Lawrence’s prototype, and perfectly acceptable. I’m hoping he’ll continue to be both though.
The big throws are easily translatable to the next-level as usual. His ability to put the ball in the exact spot his receiver needs it to finish the play strong is as good as any quarterback we’ve seen over the last few years. He’s completely unfazed when he wants to challenge tight coverage.
Even with the ball being ripped out above, Lawrence’s arc on the ball and placement to protect his receiver from a big hit is important. The defender did well to stay active and not give up to rip the ball out, but it should’ve been a catch nonetheless.
The connection that did happen for Lawrence’s first touchdown was just as good of an example of leading a receiver without putting him at risk. 27 yards out from the endzone on a 3rd-and-13, Lawrence finds Rodgers emerging late as he approaches the back line. He ripped a dart just in time to allow Rodgers to find space and be lead open.
Lawrence’s intermediate game was challenged by the length in Virginia’s secondary. His first two attempts were knocked away at the last second by corners within the hip pocket of the target, including a third-down closeout that had good but not perfect placement. I love that we get to see these opportunities from Lawrence because it’s not often that some prospects get these examples to learn from mistakes and get better (looking at Trey Lance).
Above is the type of throw that shows perfect timing and understanding of coverage types. It’s zone, which is something that defenses should stop using against Lawrence at this point. He zips the ball right into the chest of his receiver before he steps out of bounds.
There’s not a stat to measure his effectiveness in these situations but it seems as though he never misses intermediate throws against zone because of his mental processing and increased accuracy on intermediate attempts.
His touch and ability to protect his receivers are tremendous. He can float balls over coverage consistently now that his shoulder is healthy, and his ability to avoid turnover-worthy throws has grown significantly. Even the last play above is a throw that only gets better if he can keep the receiver on his feet to run more, but he also kept his man out of harm’s way by avoiding contact.
Overall, Lawrence’s game against Virginia was something I’d love to see from most prospects despite it being an average performance from the star. He’s set the bar so high that it’s now surprising to see him make mental mistakes. He’s ready for the NFL mentally and physically, whereas he was just physically ready for much of last season.
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