Browns, Buccaneers trending towards postseason contention

The Browns and the Buccaneers look primed for playoff runs.

The Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers each entered the 2020 NFL season with the talent to succeed but with their fair share of doubters who questioned whether their respective quarterbacks could make the most of strong supporting casts and guide them towards the playoffs.

Four weeks into the campaign, the Browns and Buccaneers are 3-1 and look primed to contend for the postseason.

Cleveland survived a comeback to defeat the Dallas Cowboys 49-38 in a thriller while the Buccaneers produced a fightback of their own to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31.

Plenty can change over the final three quarters of the season, but the numbers suggest both the Browns and Buccaneers have formulas to sustain their strong starts to the season and be in the mix come January.

Stefanski sets Browns up for success

It may have come against an awful Cowboys defense, but Cleveland hanging on nearly 50 points on Dallas sent an emphatic message that these are not Freddie Kitchens’ Browns.

The offense fired on all cylinders in Week 4, with the run game crucial to the dismantling of the Cowboys. Indeed, the Browns had 307 yards on the ground at 7.7 yards per carry and, even with Nick Chubb heading to injured reserve with a knee injury, the Browns have the horses in the backfield and the offensive line to continue to excel running the ball.

D’Ernest Johnson stepped up after Chubb’s absence with 95 yards on 13 carries at 7.3 yards per carry. Kareem Hunt, who had shared the load with Chubb, leads the NFL with 111 yards rushing yards over expectation, per the NFL’s NextGen Stats. Chubb (+102) is third while Johnson (+42) is 11th.

The Browns also lead the NFL in Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards, which takes running back carries and assigns responsibility to the Offensive Line. Additionally, Cleveland is number one in the league in Second Level Yards and fifth in Open Field Yards.

In other words, a revamped Browns O-Line is doing an excellent job of opening holes for its running backs, who have been superb at creating yardage for themselves.

That is a recipe for a dominant running game, which has helped take the pressure off quarterback Baker Mayfield, who ranks 14th in Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expectation composite rating (EPA + CPOE), above the likes of Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger and Dak Prescott.

If the Browns continue in this manner as the season progresses, Mayfield should have the opportunity to be more aggressive, with a ferocious pass rush providing him with magnificent support.

Garrett making strong DPOY case

The Browns, per NextGen Stats, generated 23 total team pressures against the Cowboys, with Olivier Vernon (eight pressures) and Myles Garrett (five pressures) playing key roles in Cleveland finishing the Week 4 matchup with a pressure rate of 37.7 percent.

The infamous incident with Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph behind him, Garrett is compiling a Defensive Player of the Year resume.

Against Dallas, Garrett forced two turnovers caused by pressure, taking his tally for the season to six. That is the same number with which Shaquil Barrett and Bud Dupree led the league in that category in 2019.

Garrett is just the fifth player to have two games with multiple forced turnovers caused by pressure in the NextGen Stats era and joins Barrett in being only the second to do so in consecutive games, having tallied three in the Week 3 win over the Washington Football Team.

As the shootout with Dallas showed, Cleveland’s defense is not without its vulnerabilities. However, Garrett is on pace to force turnovers at an unprecedented rate. He is consistently putting the ball in the hands of its offense, which is making use of that possession with an efficiency that has been alien to the Browns for a long time.

Brady’s deep-ball dominance

The Buccaneers have found a similar balance between a fearsome defense and productive offense, with Tom Brady beginning to answer the critics who questioned whether he could succeed in Tampa Bay in Bruce Arians’ offense.

Brady has adapted brilliantly to the aggressive downfield attack Arians runs and completed four of his seven deep passes (20 + Air Yards) for 149 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers.

Per NextGen Stats, Brady is completing 2.8 deep passes per game at an average of 102.8 yards. Those are his best figures since his 2017 season with the New England Patriots, when he averaged 1.8 deep completions for 59.4 yards per game.

So far this season, Brady is completing 50 percent of his deep passes and has a CPOE of plus 13.5 percent on such throws. Over the course of his final four seasons with the Patriots, Brady completed just 36.2 percent of his deep passes for a CPOE of plus 2.5 percent.

Brady, who is tied for the league lead with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson with 11 deep completions, has been significantly improved as a downfield thrower through his first four games with the Buccaneers, whose defense is showing no sign of regression.

Tampa’s terrific pass rush

Tampa Bay’s defense was vastly underrated in 2019 and, though the expectation was that Barrett would find it difficult to repeat a season in which he led the NFL in sacks with 19.5, Todd Bowles’ unit has still been one of the best in the NFL through the first quarter of the season.

The Buccaneers are second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA on defense, with their exceptionally talented front seven maintaining their ability to frequently pressure opposing quarterbacks. Their Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate of 10.1 percent ranks behind only Washington and the Pittsburgh Steelers (11 percent).

Ranked second in run defense DVOA, the Buccaneers are doing an exceptional job of shutting down offenses while their own is gathering significant steam.

Cleveland and Tampa Bay each entered the year with as many doubters as believers but, after four games, it is the latter who are being vindicated.