Derek Carr finds his deep ball as Drew Brees concerns remain

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is silencing his doubters. The same can’t be said for New Orleans Saints star Drew Brees.

The Las Vegas Raiders pulled off one of the surprises of the NFL season so far, beating the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday for the first time since 2012 with a victory that owed much to Derek Carr finally flourishing as a deep passer.

Las Vegas did an excellent job on defense in holding the explosive Chiefs offense to just eight second-half points in their 40-32 success, which moved the Raiders to 2-2.

However, the primary reason why the Raiders were able to emerge victorious from a compelling shootout was the play of Carr, who has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL through four weeks.

And it was the added element of an effective deep ball that put the Raiders over the top in a matchup few expected them to win.

Carr building Ruggs rapport

Carr has been much maligned in recent years for an apparent unwillingness to push the ball downfield.

He displayed no such hesitancy in Week 5, with Carr showing signs of a budding connection with first-round speedster Henry Ruggs III.

According to the NFL’s NextGen Stats, Carr completed four passes that traveled 20 yards or more in the air, which included a 59-yard strike to Nelson Agholor and a 72-yard bomb to Ruggs.

Carr delivered those deep shots with outstanding touch and accuracy and, if the Raiders can maintain a dangerous downfield attack, their offense will be extremely difficult to stop given the efficiency their quarterback has demonstrated through five games.

Raiders QB rivaling MVP candidates

The interception Carr threw in the first quarter at Arrowhead was his first and only pick of a season in which he has consistently demonstrated excellent accuracy.

Carr has completed 76.8 percent of his passes in 2020, comfortably outperforming his expected completion percentage of 69.4.

His Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage Over Expectation composite rating (EPA+CPOE), is fourth in the NFL behind three MVP contenders in Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen.

Carr’s performance in that regard combined with the deep ball promise he demonstrated in Kansas City is a recipe for a potent offense.

The Raiders were fifth in pass offense DVOA going into the Tuesday clash between the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans, though the ceiling of their aerial attack will remain limited if Carr cannot harness that downfield prowess on a regular basis.

History is against him doing so. Per NextGen Stats, Carr’s 177 yards passing on deep throws in the first half against the Chiefs were more than he had in any game over the course of the previous five seasons.

He has not been a quarterback who has frequently excelled on deep balls, yet Carr is at least showing more promise in that area than a future Hall of Famer who continues to look well past his peak.

Brees unconvincing again

The New Orleans Saints edged the Los Angeles Chargers in overtime on Monday, but the performance of quarterback Drew Brees was not one that will end doubts over seemingly quickly declining talents.

Brees did connect on a deep touchdown throw to Jared Cook, the pair linking up for a 41-yard score, however, this was another game in which the Saints’ passing attack was of a dink and dunk variety.

The game against the Chargers saw Brees average minus 1.2 Air Yards to the Sticks, a NextGen Stats metric which measures the air yards ahead of or behind the first down marker for a passer.

He completed 33 of his 47 passes but finished the game with 6.38 adjusted yards per attempt, his lowest number of the season.

While the formula of relying on Alvin Kamara and his receivers to make plays after the catch was successful on this occasion, the Saints still required a missed Chargers game-winning field goal to avoid defeat in regulation and the numbers say Brees is adding little value to their offense as a passer.

Indeed, Brees is ranked 22nd in EPA+CPOE, below Herbert and the likes of Gardner Minshew and Nick Mullens.

At 3-2, the Saints are firmly in the conversation in the NFC, but none of their rivals should fear an offense with little downfield threat led by a quarterback whose days of elevating those around him look to be over.