Is Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Teofimo Lopez the next Mayweather vs. Canelo?
Is Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Teofimo Lopez the next Mayweather vs. Canelo?
On Oct. 17, rising star Teofimo Lopez will put his lightweight belt on the line when he faces unified champion and pound for pound elite Vasyl Lomachenko. This fight will be a big jump for the young Lopez, who is attempting something no one has done since Canelo Alvarez in 2013.
Most boxing fans are in agreement that Lopez has star potential. At 23 years old, with just 15 professional fights under his belt, he has already won a world title and has the boxing world buzzing about him as a fighter to keep an eye on.
The general hype surrounding Lopez’s performances, paired with his rapid rise through the lightweight rankings has given him the opportunity to fight arguably the best fighter in the world, unified lightweight champion Lomachenko.
It is without a doubt the biggest boxing match of the year and has the sports world eagerly awaiting the opening bell.
The most interesting thing about this fight, however, may be the multiple amounts of similarities it has to a super fight that happened seven years ago: when Canelo Alvarez faced off against then pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather.
There are more similarities than you may realize, so let us examine each.
The talent of the challenger
The first similarity between these two fights is the undeniable talent of the challenger. It’s hard to imagine now since Canelo is the face of the sport, but there was a time where he was a young up-and-comer who was relatively unproven.
In the years leading up to his fight against Floyd, very few were questioning the skills of Canelo, and his performances were quickly going viral. Despite his young age, he already had amassed a record of 42-0-1 and had slowly been facing better opposition. Boxing fans had been watching highlights of him on YouTube and trying to catch his fights on Spanish TV networks; everyone wanted to see the red-headed Mexican who turned pro at just 15 years old. He was a kid defeating grown men who were professional fighters, not stuff you see every day.
The same can be said about Lopez, whose devastating knockouts and post-fight backflips have helped his popularity rise each time he steps into the ring. People see these highlights and want to catch your next fight, regardless of who your opponent is.
He seems to know how to get people talking about him, and some of his best work was wearing the jersey of Heisman trophy winners on the same night they were awarded the trophy.
Earning your first world title via devastating knockout, throwing on a Joe Burrow jersey, and then hitting the famous Heisman pose in the ring, all on the same night that the trophy was awarded to Burrow? Absolutely brilliant.
Additionally, both men were awarded the prospect of the year by ESPN, Alvarez in 2010 and Lopez in 2018.
Timing of the fight for the challenger
Despite Canelo coming into his fight with Floyd having 28 more professional fights than Teofimo has at the time of this article, where each fighter was at in their respective careers were almost identical.
Teofimo will enter his fight with Lomachneko coming off his most impressive win yet, a devastating TKO of Richard Commey to win the IBF title. I was fortunate enough to be in the arena on that night, it was such an incredible performance that everyone immediately started chatting about a matchup against Lomachenko.
No one was thinking about if he was too young or not, they just knew that he had the stuff to one day be a star and that there was no reason not to make the fight immediately, it was that impressive of a performance.
Canelo, on the other hand, was entering the Mayweather fight after defeating Austin Trout. Like Teofimo, this was by far the best win of Canelo’s career at that point.
Austin Trout was an undefeated champion, who had just come off a huge victory over future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cotto. And while it was not a highlight knockout, Canelo turned in a fantastic performance and showed that he was one of the best fighters in the division. If you are good enough to beat Austin Trout at that time or Richard Commey now, you are among the best in your division – so why not go after the number one fighter?
One last coincidence about the timing of each fight for the challenger? Canelo was 23 years old when he faced Mayweather, the same age Toefimo will be when he takes on Lomachenko.
Size difference
Another similarity is the size difference between the young challenger and the seasoned veterans in these matchups. Both Canelo and Lopez possessed natural size advantages over Mayweather and Lomachenko, respectively. Canelo, however, was not able to impose his size at all. The fight was contested at a catchweight of 152 pounds, which required Canelo to lose a few extra pounds, which is harder than it sounds when you are already cutting weight (not that it would have mattered in the grand scheme of the fight).
In the case of Lomachenko-Teofimo, however, the size difference seems more profound. Teofimo will not be at lightweight much longer, and Lomachenko is very small for the division. Lomachenko himself has noted the difference in both men’s builds, saying that Lopez’s arms seem to be three times as large as his own.
In addition, the Lomachenko-Lopez fight will be at the lightweight limit of 135 lbs, so Teofimo will not have to shave off additional weight. Maybe this will help Lopez fare better than Canelo did in terms of using his size advantages.
Odds & general consensus
The final similarity between the Mayweather-Alvarez and Lomachenko-Lopez fights are the odds, and the general consensus surrounding the outcome.
Canelo’s odds were anywhere from +240 to +270 back in 2013, whereas Teofimo Lopez opened as a +270 underdog.
While these are the odds of a noticeable underdog, it would not be mind-blowing if a +270 fighter won a fight. For perspective, Andy Ruiz’s odds were around +1000 when earned a victory over Anthony Joshua in their first fight, and that was a monumental upset.
Moving on from odds, the general consensus on these fights were also very similar during the build-up.
Although Canelo was seen as ‘next up’ in 2013, most felt he was just quite not ready to be at the top of the sport. While he was building a very solid resume and was coming off a fanatic win, there is a big jump from Austin Trout to Floyd Mayweather.
Similarly, while most feel Teofimo will soon be a household name in the sport, most are in agreement that he is not quite ready. Again, there is quite a large difference in skill between Richard Commey and Vasyl Lomachenko.
Despite most fans agreeing that Canelo was not quite ready to face the best fighter in the world, everyone was still interested in seeing him try. The fight was labeled as ‘The One’ – as many felt Canelo would be ‘the one’ to dethrone Mayweather. It generated over 2 million pay-per-view buys and was one of the highest-grossing fights in boxing history.
Flash forward to 2020, and there is a ton of buzz surrounding the Lomachenko-Lopez fight. While it is not quite the event that Mayweather-Canelo was, it is still the biggest fight of the year to this point, and there is quite a lot hype surrounding it, thanks in part to it being aired for free on ESPN. Sports fans who normally don’t watch boxing are talking about this fight, which is how you know it is a great one. People will always want to see if the next man up can dethrone the king.
Just as Canelo was in a perfect position in 2013, this is truly a win-win for Teofimo. If he is to lose, even if he loses every round, most observers will simply say he was not ready to face the most skilled fighter in the world at this stage in his career. As long as he learned from the defeat, he would still be on track to be a star and frankly could become an even better fighter. Your stock simply can not get lowered from a loss to Lomachenko, who is one of the most skilled boxers of this generation.
Flashback to 2013, when Canelo was completely outclassed by Mayweather. He lost virtually every round, but look at him now. He has grown so much inside of the ring since that fight, he took the loss as a learning experience; he was good enough at 23 years old to share a ring with the best fighter in the world, that is something to be proud of. If Lopez is to lose, he should feel similarly, it is nothing to be ashamed of losing to Lomachenko at any point in your career, let alone at 23 years old.
Obviously, the other side of the win-win scenario would be that he emerges victorious, unifying four lightweight belts, becoming the undisputed lightweight champion and dethroning the most skilled boxer currently fighting.
He would catapult into stardom and would earn a spot in the top ten pound-for-pound. His attitude and trash-talking would be backed up, which obviously would help his popularity, even more, it is no secret that fighters who are able to back up their trash talk tend to move the needle.
In the past few years, the most excited I have been for boxing matches were for Canelo-Golovkin and Wilder-Fury II. When it comes to Lomachenko-Lopez, it is right up there with those two events. It is truly a remarkable fight, and I will certainly have butterflies in my stomach as both fighters walk into the ring. Oct. 17 can not come soon enough.