Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are trending in the wrong direction

The Bills have plenty to worry about consecutive defeats.

The Buffalo Bills’ hot start to the 2020 season has cooled significantly in recent weeks, with a blowout loss to the Tennessee Titans followed by a 26-17 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs that was more one-sided than the scoreline suggested.

At 4-2, the Bills are still in command of an AFC East featuring a New England Patriots team that is under .500 through the first five games of a season for the first time since 2001.

However, they are trending in a concerning direction, with quarterback Josh Allen enduring a drop-off after a start that had him in the MVP conversation through four games and the defense appearing a long way short of the standard set by a unit that was top five in the NFL last season.

The schedule gives Buffalo the chance to get right in Week 7 as they visit the moribund New York Jets, but the numbers suggest the Bills have plenty of areas in which they need to improve if they are to be serious contenders in the AFC.

Josh Allen’s accuracy is declining, which is very bad

Allen answered a lot of his critics with his performances in the first four weeks as the Bills surged to a 4-0 start.

Though he has not reverted to back to the inconsistency and erratic decision-making that largely defined his first two years in the league, Allen has taken a step back over the last two games.

Having posted positive numbers in Completion Percentage Above Expectation in each of the opening four games, per the NFL’s NextGen Stats, Allen has since underperformed in that regard.

He had an Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP%) of 65.3 in Week 5 against Tennessee but completed 63.4 percent of his passes. In the loss to the Chiefs, Allen hit on 51.9 percent of his throws, failing to come close to meeting his xCOMP% of 58.

Allen is still enjoying the best season of his young career and is sixth among all quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per play.

But his accuracy has undoubtedly tailed off in recent weeks and the Bills defense has been unable to prevent opponents taking advantage, as offenses have had little issue dictating terms against what was a vaunted unit last season.

Buffalo Bills defense is in regression

The most jarring aspect of the loss to the Chiefs was the way Kansas City did not need to rely on the arm of Patrick Mahomes to control the game.

Indeed, a Chiefs ground game that had previously struggled to impress ran the ball at will to the tune of 245 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. That performance was not an anomaly for the Bills, who have allowed over 100 yards rushing in three games already this season.

Buffalo’s pass defense has fared no better and that is reflected by the unit’s performance in Football Outsiders DVOA. The Bills rank 24th against the run and 29th against the pass.

The struggles defending the run are not new. Buffalo was 22nd in rush defense DVOA last year but the Bills’ current standing on pass defense represents a sharp decline from 2019, when they were sixth in DVOA for that area of the game.

There has been no huge turnover in personnel on the Bills defense and yet, after six games it appears to be regressing.

With most expecting Buffalo to rout the Jets and move to 5-2, the Bills are in prime position for another postseason campaign. Yet, for the Bills to be considered legitimate Super Bowl challengers, they need Allen to rediscover his form from the opening quarter of the season and the defense to reverse the tide after a worrying couple of weeks.