College football Week 9 betting tips and picks: Trick or treat edition

College football Week 9 betting tips and picks so you can cash in with your college football betting with a special trick or treat edition for Halloween.

It’s a special Halloween edition for the college football Week 9 betting guide as Saturday will be full of tricks and treats, but hopefully, if you’re betting on any of the action, you have more treats than tricks.

The biggest game of the weekend is slightly-less-glamorous after No. 18 Penn State was upset by Indiana last week, but the Nittany Lions hosting No. 3 Ohio State is still must-see TV. Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields is a one-time Penn State commit and while there won’t be 100,000-plus fans in Happy Valley decked out in white for a “white-out” the rivalry in recent years has produced some instant classics.

Will this year do the same?

Speaking of recent rivalries, Michigan State has largely dominated the rivalry with No. 13 Michigan since former Wolverines running back Mike Hart referred to the Spartans as “little brother.” The two teams, however, appear to be heading in different directions with Michigan getting a 24-point win over Minnesota in the opener while Michigan State committed seven turnovers in a loss to Rutgers in a game they were never competitive.

Could this one get ugly for little brother?

Lastly, the Big 12 gets some attention with No. 6 Oklahoma State hosting Texas as the Cowboys look to remain undefeated and keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. It’s been a rough season for Tom Herman’s Longhorns and they already picked up an “L” this week with No. 1 recruit in the 2022 class, Quinn Ewers, de-committing on Wednesday night.

Can Texas play spoiler and pick up a win to get some momentum heading into the back-half of their season?

College football Week 9 betting tips and trends

Michigan State (+25) at Michigan: O/U: 53.5 – Noon ET – FOX

As mentioned at the top, Michigan State and Michigan are headed in opposite directions. While Michigan State has, for the most part, dominated Michigan over the last decade, with a 10-2 ATS record vs. their in-state rivals, they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Even worse, the Spartans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Big Ten games.

Conversely, Michigan is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games. When factoring in how to bet on this game, you have to forget about the past and focus on the here and now. Michigan looked great against Minnesota with first-time starting quarterback Joe Milton looking strong with a throwing and rushing touchdown. But what was most impressive about the Michigan offense was the punishing offensive line that paved the way for five rushing scores and 8.3 yards per carry on the ground.

Michigan-Michigan State betting trends

• Michigan State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.
• Michigan State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 against Michigan.
• Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six at Michigan.
• Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in their last nine against Big Ten teams.
• Michigan is 6-2 ATS in their last eight.
• The total has gone over in four of Michigan’s last six against Michigan State.
• The total has gone over in 11 of Michigan’s last 16 games.

I don’t quite think Michigan State is as bad as their seven-turnover loss to Rutgers suggests, but I also don’t think they’re much better either. This will be a rough season for first-year head coach Mel Tucker who will get a baptism by fire to this rivalry with Big Brother re-asserting their dominance.

Pick: Michigan will win, cover the spread and the total will go over.

Ohio State (-12) at Penn State: O/U: 64.5 – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC

What looked like a marquee game in the second week of the Big Ten schedule has been subdued with Penn State falling to Indiana in overtime. While it won’t be a battle of undefeated top-10 teams, it should still be a good game. At least, for the first half.

Ohio State thumped Nebraska after the Cornhuskers had the game tied at 14 in the second quarter before the talent of the Buckeyes took over and won out. Penn State is good enough to hang with Ohio State for the first half, but I don’t think they’ll have the stamina and skill players to help quarterback Sean Clifford match Fields. Penn State will be down to their third-string running back with Noah Cain lost for the year after getting hurt in the opener. He was starting in place of Journey Brown who is out indefinitely and believed to be lost for the year too.

Ohio State – Penn State betting trends

• Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against Penn State.
• Ohio State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games.
• Ohio State is 5-1 SU in their last six games at Penn State.
• Penn State is 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
• Penn State is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
• The total has gone under in four of Penn State’s last five vs. Ohio State.

Penn State is 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Ohio State but that trend dies on Saturday in Happy Valley. Recent trends are in favor of the Buckeyes with the Nittany Lions 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and Ohio State 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The tricky part of this game is the total set at 64.5. The under has hit in four of the last five games in this rivalry and with Penn State down talent at running back, Ohio State may have to do a lot of the heavy lifting to hit that over. But that’s no problem with Fields, Trey Sermon, Master Teague and Chris Olave.

Pick: Ohio State will win, cover the spread and the total will go over.

Texas at Oklahoma State (+3.5): O/U: 58.5

There is defense being played in the Big 12 with Oklahoma State going against the grain from the league’s offensive-oriented programs who have an aversion to stopping teams from scoring at will. That’s been the recipe for Mike Gundy’s squad this year but the Pokes still have Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace who can take over games and gain chunk yards and present big-play potential every time they touch the ball.

For Texas, they go as far as Sam Ehlinger takes them and even then, he hasn’t had the help he’s needed to get the Longhorns over the top. He hasn’t been perfect this season but he’s been good enough, however, he’ll need to be perfect against the Pokes to get a road upset.

Texas is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five vs. Oklahoma State and just 1-4 ATS overall in their last five road games. The trends don’t bode well for Texas who desperately needs a win. Oklahoma State, however, is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and has all the momentum on their side in this tilt.

Texas – Oklahoma State betting trends

• Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Oklahoma State.
• Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road.
• The total has gone over in four of Texas’ last five games.
• Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
• The total has gone under in seven of Oklahoma State’s last eight games.
• The total has gone over in seven of Oklahoma State’s last eight home games vs. Texas.

The tricky part of betting on Texas vs. Oklahoma State is how to approach the 58.5-point total. Recent history screams at you to take the over. In four of Texas’ last five games, the total has gone over and in seven of Oklahoma State’s last eight home games vs. Texas, the over has hit. But as I mentioned earlier with regard to trends in the Michigan State-Michigan series, you have to forget about the past and focus on the present. Oklahoma State’s defense is rock-solid and the under has hit in seven of their last eight games. That’s where I’m leaning for this game, but admittedly, it’s the lowest on my confidence meter compared to the other picks in these three games.

Pick: Oklahoma State will win, cover the spread and the total will go under.

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