NBA offseason trade targets divided by tiers

TIER: The moon shots

James Harden, Houston Rockets

Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors

We’ll wrap up with the moon shots — superstars who aren’t likely to be traded this offseason, but ones who would spark a bidding war if they do hit the market.

The entire NBA will be watching whether Giannis Antetokounmpo signs the five-year supermax extension that the Milwaukee Bucks are certain to extend as soon as they legally can. If he refuses and they don’t trade him, they’ll be running the risk of losing him for nothing as an unrestricted free agent in 2021. Are they willing to take that gamble?

The Washington Wizards have been adamant about their reluctance to trade Bradley Beal, but it’s fair to wonder how long they can maintain that stance. If Beal lacks confidence in the Wizards’ long-term direction, particularly with John Wall return from a torn Achilles, will he dangle the threat of leaving as a free agent in 2022 to entice them into trading him sooner?

The Philadelphia 76ers aren’t likely to break up Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid before new head coach Doc Rivers ever gets a chance to see them on the court. However, never rule out a drastic move from new team president Daryl Morey, who wasn’t afraid to make a big splash during his decade-plus tenure with the Houston Rockets.

The post-Morey Rockets aren’t “blowing up anything,” according to team owner Tilman Fertitta (via Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle), which means James Harden should be staying put for the time being. But if Harden expresses frustration with the team’s decision to part ways with Morey and head coach Mike D’Antoni, the threat of him leaving as a free agent in 2022 could spur the Rockets into action sooner than later.

Kyle Lowry has cemented himself as perhaps the greatest player in Toronto Raptors history, but the team could be heading into a transition period with Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol all becoming free agents this offseason. If the Raptors can’t re-sign all three, would they consider turning the page on the Lowry era and beginning to rebuild around All-Star forward Pascal Siakam?

Again: None of these players are likely to hit the trade market this offseason. But that likely won’t stop teams from trying to trade for them.