Patrick Mahomes film study: Gaudy numbers and broken records
By Ian Wharton
Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes tied one of Dan Marino’s records in his Week 8 masterpiece. We have his full, weekly report card and analysis.
The Kansas City Chiefs demolished the winless New York Jets 35-9, and the final margin could’ve been even bigger if a few scoring opportunities on deep passes had been connected. The victory already featured a historic performance as Patrick Mahomes totaled 416 passing yards and five touchdowns in a little over three quarters of play. He tied Dan Marino’s record for 400-yard and five-touchdown performances for quarterbacks at his age.
Throughout the 2020 season we’ll be tracking and grading quarterback Patrick Mahomes as we start chronicling one of the most talented passers of all time. The mesmerizing star is extremely unique with his intelligence, playmaking, flair and incredible arm talents. Even at 25 years old it’s clear we have the opportunity to see a full career of greatness.
Mahomes’ gaudy numbers were better than his overall caliber of play but that’s not to say he didn’t have moments of brilliance. Two of his touchdowns were all scheme-related, and none of his big plays were over 41 yards. He had chunk plays but not those 70-yard bombs that grab headlines.
We’re looking beyond the stat sheet to analyze Mahomes this season. I’ve been charting catchable passes for the last six years for collegiate quarterback prospects, and the results have brought solid baselines in key areas of accuracy to project NFL success.
Mahomes benefitted from this, and the project is partially why I was so high on him as a prospect. We’ll be grading him on playmaking, decision-making, accuracy, efficiency, and awareness in addition to tracking his directional and situational passing effectiveness.
Playmaking: B
The video game-esque numbers that Mahomes produced this week mainly came within structure. Mahomes was excellent within the pocket as he assaulted the Jets’ zone looks on deep curl routes and deep-ins. His timing and accuracy will be rewarded later but his playmaking was a solid grade this week.
Just five attempts of his 42 were out of the pocket, and one was an improvisation. It’s the brilliant escape below, where he rolls out of the pocket by flipping the field, and he finds an open man upfield on a toss. Though he didn’t convert the first down, this is as impressive of a display of instinct, desire to extend the play, and arm talent as almost any throw he’s had all season.
Some of his playmaking grade can also be attributed to converting six-of-seven intermediate or longer third downs, and solid downfield throwing. His three deep touchdowns are weighed more heavily elsewhere but Mahomes’ accuracy was generally strong. His version of playmaking looked different this week as he executed at an extremely high level.
Decision-Making: A+
One of the best combinations for any coach or evaluator to see is that a quarterback was able to make consistent downfield throws without making a turnover-worthy throw or taking a sack. Mahomes had occasional pressure in his face throughout the day, but often was due to RPO calls that allowed a defender to crash inside the pocket. He handled these moments brilliantly with quick passes to the open man time and time again.
A whopping eight passes were between 11-19 yards, and his 11 play-actions while inside the pocket helped keep the Jets’ pass coverage on their toes to slow the run, and on their heels to not get burned deep. The Chiefs wisely varied their attempts between the three levels to keep them off balance.
His decisions to go deep on seven tries were all justified. He missed two open throws, but all three of his accurate deep passes went for scores. The mindset was correct even if the physical act was flawed. His process this week was perfect.
Accuracy: A-
There could be a compilation of darts that Mahomes made on short and intermediate passes. He crippled the Jets with the repeated moderate gains between the numbers. Usually the Chiefs go down the middle of the field our outside the numbers, so it was refreshing and impressive they produced so well in an unfamiliar area.
Mahomes’ accuracy was generally great. He missed two scoring chances on deep balls, but only had three misses on 19 tries from 0-10 yards and one miss on eight 11-19 attempts. The other knock that kept him from a higher grade was missing both 1-4 yard third downs due to miscalculating the defender’s positioning.
But he also had dimes like the one above. He was nearly perfect when beating the coverage with great placement and understanding of leverage. His accuracy under pressure and ability to whip the ball out in a flash makes him absolutely frustrating to defend.
The Jets never had a chance.
Efficiency: A-
I would’ve liked to have seen Mahomes go beyond the markers on more than the five times on nine attempts he made on third downs. The scheme can create some yards after the catch opportunities that mitigate this concern, but Mahomes was too happy to dump the ball off several times. Worse yet, he was inaccurate on both of his third-and-short throws.
That’s really the only knock from the week. It’s fine he missed a few deep passes because those happen to everyone. He’s also been due for a bit of regression with deep passing. He’s still nailing opportunities like the one below.
Instead of falling victim to playing down to his competition, Mahomes was as efficient as he’s been all year.
Awareness: A+
The Jets needed turnovers and mistakes to have any shot of covering the 20-point line. They failed, and Mahomes walked away with an accurate pass on 7-of-12 passes under pressure. He was also 12-of-14 on play-action passes with a touchdown.
Mahomes’ ability to read defenses pre-snap continues to lead to post-snap dominance. It’s so hard to get him off his game, there’s really not a blueprint to accomplish it besides pressing his receivers. And there’s only two teams actually able to accomplish that that we’ve seen in two years.
His upcoming game against Carolina is a great chance to see how he does against a very good but young zone defense that can stifle speed. We’ll have his weekly breakdown as usual after next Sunday’s game.