J.K. Dobbins should be lead guy in Baltimore Ravens backfield

J.K Dobbins impressed in Week 8 and should be the lead back in Baltimore.

The Baltimore Ravens may have suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8, but there were plenty of positives to come out of their performance in a 28-24 defeat, among them the apparent emergence of rookie running back J.K. Dobbins.

Dobbins had been lightly used going into Week 8 but saw an uptick in carries on Sunday and made the most of them despite facing a vaunted Steelers defense.

He finished with 15 carries, his highest of his maiden season in the NFL, for 113 yards, a gaudy average of 7.53 yards per carry.

The rookie comfortably outperformed Gus Edwards, whose statline of 16 carries for 83 yards was made more impressive by his short-yardage touchdown in the second quarter.

With Mark Ingram dealing with an ankle injury that sidelined him against the Steelers, Dobbins made a tremendous case for being the lead guy in the Baltimore backfield, and the advanced metrics support his argument.

Dobbins doing more than expected

The difference between what Dobbins did on the ground compared to Edwards is contextualized by their respective performances in Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE), an NFL NextGen Stats metric that measures the difference between actual rushing yards and the yards a running play was expected to gain.

In Week 8, Dobbins was sixth among running backs in RYOE per attempt with an average of 1.39 yards. Edwards also performed well in this regard but his RYOE per carry was just 0.78 by comparison.

It is a similar story in the season-long numbers. Dobbins is fourth in the NFL with 1.75 RYOE per attempt in 2020, with the gap to Edwards a significant one as he sits on 0.69 RYOE per rush.

To put it another way, while Edwards has 305 yards to Dobbins’ 267 this season, it is the former Ohio State star who is doing a consistently better job of finding additional unanticipated yardage.

The sample size is smaller, Dobbins has 40 carries to Edwards’ 64, but the rookie’s more efficient production is borne out by his performance in Football Outsiders metrics.

More efficient than Edwards

Edwards is 10th among qualifying running backs in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, which measures total running back value by comparing performance to that of a replacement-level player.

His DYAR of 78 puts him above the likes of Aaron Jones (69) and Alvin Kamara (51). However, had Dobbins recorded the 64 rushes needed to qualify for a ranking, he would be fifth in the NFL with 99 DYAR.

It is an even more stark contrast in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures value per play over an average running back in the same game situations.

Edwards is an impressive third among qualifying running backs with a DVOA of 20.3% but Dobbins’ DVOA on his 40 carries is a massive 50.6%. If he had enough attempts to qualify for a ranking, he would lead all running backs in that metric.

Ingram may hope to gain the lion’s share of the workload when he returns from injury but his DYAR of 24 and DVOA of 2.8% from 50 carries in 2020 indicate he would not be as efficient as Dobbins has been running the ball.

Against the Steelers, the Ravens’ diverse running game – led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, Dobbins and Edwards – looked like its 2019 vintage.

The Ravens invested a premium draft choice in Dobbins, taking him in the second round, and Sunday’s evidence suggests they were right to do so. For Baltimore’s ground game to perform to its devastating best, both the raw numbers and the advanced metrics say Dobbins should get the bulk of the carries as the Ravens look to avenge their postseason heartache of last season.