Zach Wilson film study: BYU quarterback emerges into elite 2021 NFL Draft prospect

BYU quarterback Zach Wilson has emerged as a star and top prospect for the 2021 NFL Draft. 

The BYU Cougars have been one of the most shocking storylines of the 2020 college football season. The No. 8 team in the nation has destroyed all but one team they’ve played this season, and earned the respect of the national audience this week. Their 51-17 beatdown of No. 21 Boise State was the perfect showing on primetime television to prove their legitimacy.

At the heart of that blowout was their emerging star quarterback, Zach Wilson. The junior gunslinger looks to be this season’s Joe Burrow. A formerly mediocre but uninspiring passer who suddenly elevates to a new level before becoming a high draft pick in the NFL. Wilson’s number went from 62.4 percent completion rate, 2,382 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine picks in 2019 to 75 percent completion rate, 21 touchdowns and two picks in 2020.

Wilson completed 21-of-27 passes for 359 yards and two scores against the Broncos. His raw stats don’t matter as much as his process, which I track by counting catchable passes and situational effectiveness. So we’re going to go inside his accuracy numbers and breakdown the plays that show his talent.

BYU’s Zach Wilson offers playmaking passing and improvisation ability

Wilson can best be described as a playmaking passer who excels at extending plays and creating chunk gains. This archetype has been emerging over the last decade but few have become NFL stars unless they have excellent physical traits as well. Johnny Manziel was the most notable bust because of his hype, but there were many factors that predicted his on-field failure.

Even in one game where Wilson was very good but not perfect against Boise State, his arm talent stood out as a strength he can build his game around. It’s not as good as Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, who easily overcome poor footwork and still throw high-velocity passes, but Wilson’s motion creates a lot of torque for being so lean, and he’s able to hit downfield windows effectively.

The accuracy number reflect consistency among his deeper passes as well. Granted, he wasn’t perfect as far as leading his receivers downfield or hitting them in stride, but deep passes often times are more about giving a realistic chance than being perfect. Hitting a receiver in stride to maximize yards after the catch is rare and not the standard that any quarterback can be held to realistically.

Wilson was accurate on four-of-five passes beyond 20 yards. Two of them were perfectly place, like the one above. Two were underthrown and reliant on the receiver to finish the play strongly, like the one below. Notice how a ball thrown out further could’ve been a touchdown.

Here’s where his arm strength can’t be overvalued, and a few examples of this were throughout this game. The ball can hang a little in the air on far-sideline throws and that’s dangerous at the next level. Burrow has overcome it through movement around the pocket and anticipation, and Wilson does this in his own way often too. Wilson also has room to improve mechanically by driving into his throws with his hips more than he sometimes does.

We can see the positives of creating torque happening on a majority of his intermediate throws. He was accurate on all but one of his 10 attempts between 11-19 yards. He’s highly competent at reading the leverage of defenders at that depth and did well to trust his man in one-on-one situations.

The throw above is an example of what to expect out of a top-five pick. He has to be able to consistently beat close coverage with his placement. This wasn’t a game where that was on display much, so these flashes and glimpses are important. Wilson avoided interceptable passes despite several attempts into close quarters.

He’s very good when his desired read works out. Not that he’s a player who seems destined to be great within the scheme because he wants to break out of the play design fairly often, but seeing this type of throw down the seam when a defender is near is pertinent for his development. This is an NFL throw with the velocity and placement shown.

He was accurate on all but four of his total attempts after we take out throwaways. He missed two short throws due to the ball dying off a bit at the catch point, a sign that he has to step into throws better, and then one at each intermediate and deeper depth. Overall that’s an excellent performance.

If there’s an overarching concern for his game, it’s his mental processing. This will decide his NFL fate more than anything physical since his mechanics can be tightened and fixed. All three sacks he took were on him for holding onto the ball, and he continually stared down his targets while plays were available around him. He missed an open deep and underneath man on the top of the screen on this play because he couldn’t look away from the bottom two targets.

Even at the start of the game there was nearly an interceptable ball had the defense been lurking in zone. Wilson didn’t recognize the linebacker dropping back into coverage. This is a common mistake for young guys, and often is the biggest reason pick-sixes happen.

He avoided that reality but it’s a learning opportunity. These RPOs and quick-throw play-actions are good for stat boosting and easy yards but present the occasional danger as defenses key into it. BYU’s offense is thankfully not completely reliant on them, and we’ve shown some examples from this week where Wilson’s creating on his own to transcend the system.

Overall this game encapsulated Wilson’s game well. He’s physically talented, confident, playmaking, and has the tools to be a good NFL player. It’s tough to fully judge him due to the level of competition he’s played on a weekly basis and he doesn’t have the physical tools of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields or Trey Lance. But he’s a natural player moreso than Lance.

Watch for him to continue climbing the draft boards if the rest of his 2020 mirrors what we’ve seen thus far. He’s a must-watch player every week and has legitimate Heisman hopes.

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