As legit Heisman Trophy contenders dwindle, path unfolds for Florida’s Kyle Trask

Gators quarterback has reached the top tier of candidates and a collision course with Mac Jones, No. 1 Alabama could defining his case.

The Kyle Trask story has already been improbable, but this would just be ridiculous.

We’ve heard it ad nauseam at this point, but it bears repeating if only for emphasis: a two-star recruit, who arrived at Florida having not started since his freshman year of high school, and in his senior year in Gainesville, he’d finally get his chance. Now, back for a fifth season, he’s among the most prolific quarterbacks in the nation.

It’s a fantastical bit of perseverance … but if that story ended with a Heisman Trophy, especially in this season? It would help to define improbable in an era for the award where the unexpected has become, well, expected, as Trask has catapulted into the top tier of candidates and has a matchup looming that could help him make a serious case for the award.

Kyle Trask is putting up Joe Burrow-like numbers for Florida

Let’s start with those numbers, which are most certainly the stuff of a Heisman campaign, no matter this season’s length.

Trask, who just torched then-No. 5 Georgia for 474 yards – the most ever by a Gators pass in the matchup – and four touchdowns is averaging 363 passing yards per game, just three behind Alabama’s Mac Jones for the most of any Power 5 player who has played more than one game. Nobody has thrown for more scores than Trask’s 22, he’s fifth in points responsible for (132) and 14th in yards (1,815), he joins 1996 Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel and 2001 runner-up, Rex Grossman, as the only Gators with multiple 400-yard games in a season and is the first SEC quarterback with five straight games of at least four scoring strikes.

At this point in the season, Trask’s 1,815 yards are just below what last year’s winner, Joe Burrow, had through five games (1,864) and they’ve thrown the same number of touchdowns.

With Florida closing out the regular season against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU, those stats figure to get gaudier. The Wildcats are 20th in total defense, but Ole Miss’ Matt Corral burned them for 320 yards and four scores; the Razorbacks (58th in total D) allowed three touchdown passes to Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond and Jones torched the Volunteers’ 62nd-ranked defense for 387 yards.

Add in facing two of the conference’s worst defenses in the Commodores (82nd) – a unit that allowed LSU’s Myles Brennan to go wild with 337 yards and four touchdowns — and Tigers (110) – who yielded 623 yards and five scores to Mississippi State’s K.J. Costello and 406 and four touchdowns vs. Missouri’s Connor Bazelak — and Trask is on pace to go into the SEC Championship Game with 3,630 yards and 44 touchdowns. That’s more than the last decade worth of Heisman-winning passers averaged (3,503 yards and 32 scores).

SEC Championship Game is where Trask will need to have his Heisman moment

But the biggest piece of the puzzle for Trask, who already owned the spotlight in the Gators’ romp of rival Georgia, is what that SEC title game could represent. It’s close to a sure thing given their schedules, as Florida would need to lose twice to give up the East lead, and a date against Jones and top-ranked Alabama in Atlanta is a nugget no other top contender can match.

Granted, Ohio State’s Justin Fields still has No. 10 Indiana, and there are two ranked Big Ten teams – No. 13 Wisconsin and No. 23 Northwestern – in contention in the West, while Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is likely to get that crack at No. 2 Notre Dame (and dark horse challenger Ian Book) that contracting COVID-19 robbed him of, giving them moments key down the stretch – but not something that can equal what the SEC could offer.

Think about that for a minute: for all the talk of Fields vs. Lawrence, the two Georgia-bred passers, who were ranked No. 1 (Lawrence) and No. 2 (Fields) in Rivals’ top 100 for the Class of 2018, a duo that seemed destined to turn 2020 into a two-man Heisman race, a game featuring two players that a season ago opened as backups could go a long way to deciding this season’s winner.

That’s what the SEC is tracking toward having on the docket in Jones vs. Trask when Alabama faces Florida, the only potential championship weekend meeting of the short list of players who could actually win the trophy.

Fields — whose 222.38 efficiency rating is in line to take down the FBS-record of 201.96 that Burrow set last season — isn’t going anywhere and as detailed last week, history tells us Lawrence’s chances are over after missing two games. While BYU’s Zach Wilson is exciting, if a non-Power 5 player is ever going to win the Heisman again, it’s unlikely to come in a season where those programs outside the major conferences lost out on those season-defining games. A case can be made for Book, but the numbers just aren’t strong enough for the Fighting Irish quarterback, who has thrown just eight passes.

That has, barring the cataclysmic, as the most likely winners coming down to Fields, Jones or Trask, and the SEC figures to have two of them dueling in the final game before ballots have to be submitted.

Long shots are nothing new for the Heisman of late, with four of the past five winners opening the season at +2000 odds, and Trask would certainly fit that mold at +2500 before a game had been played (equal to Jones in that regard). Burrow is the standard there, with his +4000 odds ahead of the 2019 season the longest any eventual winner has faced since at least 2009, but Trask would also amount to new territory and a new standard for surprises.

A three-star recruit when he committed to Ohio State in 2015, Burrow is one of six three-stars to win the award, along with Baker Mayfield (2017), Lamar Jackson (2016), Marcus Mariota (2014), Johnny Manziel (2012), Sam Bradford (2008) and Jason White (2003). There has yet to be a two-star winner, which is what Trask was coming out of Manvel, Texas in the Class of 2016. He didn’t generate an offer from any other Power 5 programs as he was wooed by the likes of Fresno State and Tulsa.

He didn’t exactly come out of nowhere as the coaches’ pick for SEC first-team quarterback, but it’s a long-shots resume, nonetheless.

Trask made serious headway this past weekend, going from a distant fourth at +3300 to +600. He’s still behind Lawrence +450, with Fields out in front at +125, with Jones second per Action Network, but his case only figures to get stronger driving the nation’s fifth-ranked passing offense (369 yards per game) through a manageable part of the schedule.

The list of legitimate challengers has dwindled, and Trask has made certain he’s going to have a say in how this Heisman race plays out.

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