3 players the Cubs should sell high on this offseason

The Chicago Cubs seem set to shake things up and trim payroll this offseason, and these 3 players stand out as overpaid

Despite the struggles of notable names up and down the lineup, the Chicago Cubs made the playoffs this past season. The Miami Marlins dispatched them quickly, with a sweep in a Wild Card Series, but the postseason is the postseason.

With much of the 2016 core that won the World Series at or near the end of their contracts, the Cubs seem ready for an active offseason. Signs they’d be looking to trim payroll pre-dated a shortened 2020 campaign and the financial ramifications attached to COVID-19, and now this offseason looks like the time of reckoning.

According to Spotrac, with arbitration figures projected in, the Cubs are projected to have the third-highest payroll in baseball for 2021 ($150.485 million). Non-tendering some of those arbitration eligible players, headlined by Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber, would reduce that payroll. Trading Bryant and/or Schwarber is legitimately on the table.

Beyond those tender decisions and trade rumors, here are three overpaid players the Cubs should break up with this offseason.

The Cubs signed Darvish to a six-year, $126 million deal, then watched him pitch to a 4.95 ERA over 40 injury-truncated innings in 2018. The start of the 2019 campaign wasn’t any better, with a 4.88 ERA and a 6.0 BB/9 through his first 13 starts.

From there, Darvish found something. Over his next 12 starts (June 10-Aug. 15), he had a 3.59 ERA with an 11.2 K/9 and a 0.9 BB/9. Over his final 18 starts of 2019, he posted a 3.45 ERA with a 12.1 K/9 and a 0.96 BB/9. A different split in his pitch usage, and not being willing to put it somewhere near the plate, made the difference.

Darvish had a nice 2020 campaign, with a 2.01 ERA, an 11.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 over 12 starts (76 innings). The pitcher the Cubs paid big for seems to exist.

Darvish, 34, has three years left on his contract with salaries of $22 million, $19 million and $18 million. He also has a full no-trade clause, but maybe he can be persuaded to waive it. It’s not so much that Darvish can’t sustain what he’s done lately or won’t justify his salary, but as age becomes a factor the downside grows. In 2018, the Cubs saw that injury risk and downside first-hand.

Perhaps a team that is willing to spend would make a deal for Darvish. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has suggested the Mets as just such a team that might do so, as new owner Steve Cohen wants to compete immediately. The trade market for Darvish will be naturally narrow, but the Cubs should probably entertain the idea if payroll concerns are king.