Braves: 3 overpaid players we need to immediately break up with

Smith missed Summer Camp after testing positive for COVID-19, then he posted a 4.50 ERA in 18 regular-season appearances. The long ball was an issue, with seven of the 11 hits he allowed leaving the ballpark and eight of the 13 hits he allowed when including the postseason being home runs. In what could be a fluke of bad luck, 33 percent of the fly balls he allowed during the regular season turned into home runs.

Smith allowed just six home runs over 93.1 innings from 2016-2018 with the San Francisco Giants (6.5 percent home run/fly ball rate in 2018). That jumped to 10 home runs allowed over 65.1 innings in 2019 (20.4 home run/fly ball rate, via FanGraphs). His velocity and pitch usage has not changed much over that full stretch of time, but the home run surge this past season can’t just be written off as a short-season mirage.

Smith is entering the second year of his three-year, $40 million deal, with a $13 million option ($1 million buyout) for 2023. The Braves bullpen is in a bit of flux right now, with Mark Melancon and Shane Greene free agents and the decision to decline Darren O’Day’s option.

But when it comes down to it, as valuable as he has been as a late-inning reliever, Smith has one full season as an unquestioned closer (34 saves for the Giants in 2019). He cashed in on it, but it’ll be hard for the Braves to leave him as the clear guy to lock down a final inning lead. Maybe another team will see 2020 as a blip, and not a continuation of a propensity to allow the long ball. A trade has to be a possibility for the Braves, and Smith’s remaining money is not a major barrier to a deal.