AFC better than NFC, NFL power rankings, Bears’ issues and more

After 10 weeks, it’s impossible to think the eventual Super Bowl winner won’t come from the AFC, which is loaded with contenders.

The last time we could confidently proclaim the AFC better than the NFC? The halcyon days of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady.

In other words, about 12 years ago.

Clearly, the balance of power once again resides in the AFC. Need proof? According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2020 AFC is the first conference to have at least nine teams with six wins through Week 10. It’s the first such instance since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970.

As for the lead contenders, the Kansas City Chiefs are, by eye test and point margin, the best in football. The defending champs are favorites in Vegas (+333) and until further notice, should be with Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, a hoard of weaponry and a top-10 defense.

How great have the Chiefs been? Dating back to last year, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 games, covering in 15 instances. This season, Mahomes has thrown for 25 touchdowns against one interception. It’s a video game with the settings turned to rookie mode.

However, the AFC is more than one juggernaut.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the league’s only unbeaten team. At 9-0, the defense leads in every category regarding pass rush, and Roethlisberger is on pace for more touchdowns and fewer interceptions than he’s ever had in a full season.

The Steelers also have the league’s best front in T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Stephon Tuitt and Cam Heyward. The secondary is also loaded with veteran corners Joe Haden and Steven Nelson, and do-it-all safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh can blitz and cover man-to-man, or drop and get immediate pressure with four. It’s a deadly combo.

In Baltimore, the Ravens are scuffling at 6-3. They aren’t sexy this morning, but while Lamar Jackson and the offense have regressed, the defense is elite and the coaching staff is phenomenal. Yes, losing to the New England Patriots all but ensures the AFC North for Pittsburgh, but It’s not hard to see Baltimore making a deep, deep run in January spearheaded by a ball-hawking defense and Jackson’s legs. The talent is there.

One note on Baltimore, though: potentially losing tight end Nick Boyle is a crushing blow. Boyle signed a three-year, $18 million deal in March 2019 despite having never caught a touchdown pass. People in NFL circles routinely call him the best blocking tight end in football. Without him and left tackle Ronnie Stanley — out for the year with an ankle injury — the Ravens will find running tougher.

Now, onto the NFC.

In the NFC West, Seattle has a point-a-minute offense, but the defense is hellbent on matching in the worst way. Over the past four weeks, Russell Wilson has committed 10 turnovers, and Seattle is 1-3 over said stretch.

The Los Angeles Rams — more on them below — have a terrific defense but which Jared Goff shows up? Then there are the Arizona Cardinals, a magic show with Kyler Murray, albeit harboring a questionable unit on the other side.

In the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers’ last two home dates have been a bad loss to the Minnesota Vikings and a near-loss to the one-win Jacksonville Jaguars. The defense is also bottom-half of the league in almost every meaningful category.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints blow out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but struggle to do so with anybody else. The Saints handled the San Francisco 49ers, but have wins over the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears by a combined 15 points. Additionally, the defense is vulnerable to the pass, and Drew Brees is both injured (more below) and has been generally less effective.

As for Tampa Bay, it might be the most complete NFC team, but at 7-3, the Bucs could be looking at three road games in January. Tom Brady also turns into a pumpkin under pressure, having the worst numbers of any qualified quarterback in such situations.

The Buccaneers have the most upside because like Pittsburgh, the front seven is loaded and the corners are usually good enough to hold up in man coverage when called upon. However, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has been playing more off-coverage in recent weeks, and the result has been easy completions galore against.

All told, it’s hard to say any of the three best AFC teams are worse than the top contenders NFC squads heading towards Week 11.

Kansas City (+103), Pittsburgh (+100) and Baltimore (+79) have the league’s three best point differentials. They rank among the top of myriad statistical categories, both offensive and defensive.

With seven weeks left, there’s a chance it changes. Maybe the Seahawks somehow tighten defensively or the Packers improve on rankings 24th defensively in yards per play (going into Sunday). Perhaps the Buccaneers mesh and win the South, making them a major threat.

All those possibilities remain. What is known now, though, is the AFC is leading the way towards the Lombardi Trophy, and it isn’t close.

Power rankings

Worst division-winning teams of all time

1. 2010 Seattle Seahawks (7-9, -97 point diff.; lost in Div. round)
2. 2014 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1, -35 point diff.; lost in Div. round)
3. 2011 Denver Broncos (8-8, -81 point diff.; lost in Div. round)
4. 2013 Green Bay Packers (8-7-1; -13 point diff.; lost in WC round)
5. 1985 Cleveland Browns (8-8, -7 point diff.; lost in Div round)
6. 1978 Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1, -12 point diff.; lost in Div. round)
7. 1988 Seattle Seahawks (9-7, +10 point. diff.; lost in Div. round)
8. 2008 San Diego Chargers (8-8, +92 point diff.; lost in Div round)
9. 1970 Cincinnati Bengals (8-6; +57 point diff.; lost in Div. round)
10. 1983 Detroit Lions (9-7, +61 point diff.; lost in Div. round)

Quotable

– Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn after a 29-21 loss to the Miami Dolphins

Anthony Lynn is a great man, but it’s clear he’s not the answer in Los Angeles.

The Chargers are 2-7, they can’t execute situational football, and with Justin Herbert emerging as a star quarterback, the franchise can’t waste time with a coach who has exactly one playoff win in his four-year tenure.

Podcast

Random stat

Stephen Gostkowski has now missed a league-worst eight field goals. If the Tennessee Titans don’t get their kicking game fixed, it may cost them the AFC South and potentially a playoff spot.

As it stands, the Indianapolis Colts beat the Titans in Nashville — with Gostkowski missing a key attempt in the third quarter — and have taken over first place in the division, with a rematch in Indy two weeks away.

Info learned this week

1. Rams earn season-altering win over Seahawks, but there’s a concern

The Los Angeles Rams have entered the chat.

After beating Seattle 23-16 on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles, the Rams have moved into a third-way tie for first place in the NFC West. The Seahawks have dropped two straight and three-of-four, with Wilson and Co. regressing and the defense failing to step up.

As for the Rams, they rank top-five in a legion of defensive categories including points, passing yards, total yards against and yards per play against. And yet, all is not well.

Left tackle Andrew Whitworth was forced to leave in the second quarter with a knee injury and was quickly declared out. With the veteran expected to miss at least a month, the Rams will struggle to keep Jared Goff clean, and when Goff is pressured, he’s a completely different quarterback.

For now, a few truths are evident.

The Rams are a legit threat to win the NFC West. The Seahawks must find some semblance of a defense, or Wilson has to be letter-perfect.

2. Saints win, but what to make of Drew Brees’ injury?

New Orleans is 7-2 after dispatching the injury-ravaged San Francisco 49ers. Now, the Saints have an injury concern of their own.

At halftime, Saints quarterback Drew Brees sat down for the contest’s remainder with a rib injury. It’s unclear whether Brees will miss time, but if he does, Jameis Winston will be getting action after signing a one-year deal in the Big Easy this offseason.

Unquestionably, Brees will retain his starting job once healthy. The Saints are in the Super Bowl mix and while the 41-year-old isn’t the player he was a decade ago, he remains accurate and intelligent both pre and post-snap.

If New Orleans is going to realize its title dreams, it needs Brees healthy and peaking down the stretch. Hopefully for the Saints, he’s back quickly.

3. Bills loss opens the door in AFC East for Dolphins to sneak in

The ultimate gut-punch was landed on the Buffalo Bills. DeAndre Hopkins was happy to deliver.

An improbable Hail Mary from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins gave the Cardinals a last-second 32-30 win over Buffalo, and the ripples from the result will be seen for quite some time.

While Arizona pulls even in the NFC West, Buffalo stands to potentially feel the biggest impact.

The Bills were two seconds from 8-2. Instead, they’re now 7-3 and only a half-game ahead of the streaking Miami Dolphins, who beat the Chargers to make it five consecutive victories. Buffalo does have an increasingly important Week 2 win over Miami on the road, but the rematch — set for Week 17 — is looming larger by the hour.

Buffalo’s schedule is relatively easy. Of its next five opponents, only the Steelers have a winning record. Conversely, the Dolphins must welcome in the Chiefs, visit the Raiders and then head to western New York for the regular-season finale.

The Bills remain in control, but their grip loosened the second DeAndre Hopkins’ grip took hold.

4. Giants starting to make move for horrific NFC East

The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles are tied for the NFC East-high in wins after 10 weeks. They each have three.

New York handled Carson Wentz and Co. off their bye week, winning 27-17 behind a quality defensive effort and quarterback Daniel Jones going 21-of-28 for 244 yards while adding 64 rushing yards and a touchdown. At 3-7, the Giants are now within a game of the 3-5-1 Eagles, having split the season series.

Philadelphia has a two-game advantage in the loss column, but New York is becoming a problem. The Giants have won three of their last five games and only lost the other two contests by one point apiece. In a division where six wins might legitimately take down a postseason home game, New York has an opportunity. It’ll enjoy a bye week before visiting the Bengals.

This division may well come down to Wentz vs. Jones. In that case, give me the latter.

5. AFC wild-card race continues to tighten

The division races are mediocre in the AFC, but the wild card race is fantastic.

If the season ended today, the Las Vegas Raiders (6-3), Miami Dolphins (6-3) and Ravens (6-3) would be the wild card seeds from Nos. 5-7, respectively. The Browns (6-3) and Titans (6-3) follow, losing out via tiebreakers.

Of course, it can all change instantly. The Raiders still play the Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts — both in Vegas. Indy is also 6-3, holding the tiebreaker on Tennessee atop the AFC South. Speaking of, those teams have a rematch, this time at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Week 12. Heck, the Titans visit the Ravens this weekend in a game rife with importance.

The Browns also have a fairly favorable schedule. Cleveland still faces the Jets, Jaguars, Giants and Eagles. Cleveland also has two massive tilts with the Ravens (home) and Titans (away).

As we head towards Thanksgiving, absolutely nothing is settled in the AFC playoff picture.

Gambler’s game

The Chiefs are seven-point favorites on Sunday Night Football, visiting the Raiders. Andy Reid off a bye is well-known as a cheat code, but this pick is about much more. It’s about respect.

Kansas City’s only loss this season came to the Raiders. Afterwards, Las Vegas took a victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium, honking horns. The Chiefs won’t forget that. Look for Kansas City to pull out a multitude of doozies we haven’t seen yet.

The Raiders got their upset win. Now the Chiefs get their revenge on national television.

Two cents

We’re a long way from the offseason, but the quarterback carousel will be bonkers — much like a year ago.

Barring a miracle, we know Trevor Lawrence to the New York Jets is incredibly likely. We also know Justin Fields is probably going No. 2 overall, with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football Team or Giants looking good for said slot.

However, the veteran movement could be even more fascinating. If the San Francisco 49ers are done with Jimmy Garoppolo, keep an eye on the New England Patriots. It’s tough seeing Cam Newton return, and when Garoppolo was dealt years ago, head coach Bill Belichick wasn’t happy about it. Garoppolo coming home makes sense beyond the narrative level.

Meanwhile, do the Lions move off Matthew Stafford? If so, the 49ers make sense if they send Garoppolo packing. Stafford is only 32 years old (turns 33 in February) but it seems his time in Detroit is ending. He’d be an immediate upgrade on a contender.

Finally, what of the aging stars? Is this it for Brees with the Saints. If so, is it Winston’s or Taysom Hill’s job? Probably. Newton and Philip Rivers seem destined to either retire or play as backups, as both have largely flopped with the Patriots and Colts, respectively.

None of this even touches on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, who are their own sideshow.

There are months to go before we get into this talk for real, and plenty can and will change. Still, something to keep in mind.

Inside the league

James Robinson is having a historic rookie season, and unless you play fantasy football, there’s a good chance you’ve never heard of him.

Robinson was an undrafted rookie out of Illinois State, despite being invited to the East-West Shrine Game and NFL Scouting Combine. Jacksonville, despite having a mid-round grade on Robinson, let him slide down the draft boards with bigger needs to satisfy.

Luckily for the Jaguars, they nabbed him in the immediate aftermath. Thus far, Robinson has amassed 917 yards from scrimmage, the most in NFL history for an undrafted rookie through nine games.

Per league conversations, Robinson has been impressive in his vision and balance through contact, along with his ability to block, keeping him on the field for third downs. For a first-year kid, the latter is the most impressive, showcasing mental acumen.

Per another source, Robinson has been consistent in his approach, staying emotionally even-keeled. The numbers bear this out, as the Rockford, IL product has notched 90+ total yards in seven contests.

It’s been a long season in Jacksonville, but the Jaguars have a young star in Robinson.

History lesson

Larry Ball holds a special place in NFL history.

The seven-year linebacker out of Louisville enjoyed a perfect rookie season with the 1972 Dolphins. Four years later, he went through the agony of a winless campaign as a member of the 1976 Buccaneers.

Ball remains the only NFL player to ever play for a perfect and winless outfit.

Parting shot

It’s time for the Chicago Bears to put up or shut up.

After beginning the campaign 5-1 including a few miracle wins over Detroit and the Atlanta Falcons, the Bears have crashed back into reality with three consecutive defeats. On Monday, they host the Vikings at Soldier Field, with their bye to follow.

If Chicago loses, it’s tough to see a road to the postseason. The Bears still have the Packers twice on their schedule, along with a rematch with the Vikings in Minnesota. In the NFC, anything less than 10 wins probably means curtains.

Should the Bears falter once more, head coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace should be squarely on the hot seat. This is Pace’s sixth year with the club while Nagy is in his third. The former deserves more blame for failing to secure a quality quarterback along with weaponry sans Allen Robinson, but Nagy has done little to alter his scheme to fit the players.

With Nagy having relinquished his play-calling duties on Friday to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, he’s announcing two things. One, Nagy is recognizing he can’t fix the offense and its problems. Two, for the betterment of the team, he’s taking a back seat.

While the latter is admirable, Nagy has to realize he has put in future in a tenuous position. Should Lazor step in and handle the role splendidly, that’s one hell of an indictment of Nagy’s ability to run the offense, which was the main reason for his hiring.

It’s uncertain whether the famously patient McCaskey family will move on from Nagy and Pace if this season plummets, but if the Bears go from 5-1 to out of playoff contention by Christmas?

There really shouldn’t be a debate.