NBA Free Agency: 5 players who are going to be overpaid

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 12: Fred VanVleet #23 of the Toronto Raptors in action against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on February 12, 2020 in New York City.Brooklyn Nets defeated the Toronto Raptors 101-91. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

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LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 06: Jae Crowder #99 of the Miami Heat reacts during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers in Game Four of the 2020 NBA Finals at AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on October 6, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

3. Jae Crowder

Crowder is another player that is set to really benefit from the Heat’s run to the NBA finals. His physicality, leadership, and tough defense gave Miami an edge they desperately needed. It’s easy to envision a team falling in love with him in free agency as a result of those exploits in the Bubble.

Those playoff exploits largely obscure the reality that the Grizzlies almost gave Crowder away in a midseason deal to Miami. He was a drain on the Memphis offense largely because of his inability to make shots from the perimeter. To that end, he shot just over 29 percent from 3 for the Grizzlies compared to over 44 percent after making the move to the Heat.

His career mark of 34 percent behind the arc is closer to what any team offering him a deal via free agency should expect. That drastically depresses his value for most teams looking for a potential starter on the wing. It’s not as if Crowder has the ability to do anything off the dribble that might overshadow those perimeter shooting concerns.

A contender will try to squeeze value out of Crowder even if they’re required to give him the full mid-level exception. It’s not a gamble that is likely to pay off. Instead, expect Crowder to quickly turn into a negative contract. That’s going to look like a pretty big mistake for the team that “wins” the race to sign him.

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