1. Orlando Magic
On the surface, this trade seems extremely one-sided. The Orlando Magic are giving up three capable NBA players and are getting … maybe one, if Wall can actually stay healthy? It’s quite unfair in terms of on-court impact for the upcoming 2020-21 campaign.
But the Magic need to take a broader view than “Will we get bounced from the first round of the playoffs in four games this year, or will it be five games?” Nikola Vucevic is on the books through 2023, but he might be more valuable as a trade chip than a franchise cornerstone; we’ve already seen the ceiling of any team with him as its best player.
The Magic have tried to include Aaron Gordon in pretty much every deal they’ve discussed over the last two years, so it’s clear they’re fine with cutting ties and turning things over to a recovering Jonathan Isaac at the 4-spot. Al Farouq-Aminu tore his meniscus and was limited to 18 games in his first season with the Magic, so the remaining two years and $19.9 million on his contract feel pretty expendable unless the goal is to push next year’s first-round defeat to six games.
Terrence Ross is a lovable bench piece, but his extension also runs through 2023, and Orlando desperately needs to change its course before then. This build-through-the-middle approach with middling playoff pieces and middling first-round draft picks won’t cut it, and it’s time to dive in.
The John Wall trade does that, while also attempting to release the Magic from the Point Guard Purgatory they’ve been trapped in since the days of Jameer Nelson. Maybe Markelle Fultz can be that guy eventually, but can anyone confidently say he is that guy? D.J. Augustin was fine, but he was usually outmatched on a nightly basis and he’ll be leaving in free agency. Wall can help, whether it’s as an injured mentor for Fultz or a healthy starter trying to revive his career.
At the price of three rotation-caliber players, the Magic would be compensated with two future first-rounders, including Washington’s 2021 pick in a draft class that’s supposed to be loaded.
While giving up two firsts would be a tough pill to swallow for the Wizards, they might honestly be getting off easy here; one first dumps Wall’s contract and one lands Gordon, which leaves us with two more quality bench pieces joining the fold in D.C. for the mere cost of Jerome Robinson, a youngster who hasn’t proved much early in his career. A third first-rounder might be necessary to facilitate here.
But whether it’s three firsts or two, there’s no question the Wizards would be in business. Aminu was a well-respected two-way veteran before his injury, we all know what Ross can do off the bench, and Gordon is a legitimately good stretch-4 with a blossoming offensive game and great defensive instincts. Put them next to Beal, Davis Bertans and this high-powered offense, and suddenly the Wizards are back in the playoff field. Even better, there’s an actual foundation to build on between Beal and the 25-year-old Gordon.
The Magic can probably do better in an Aaron Gordon trade than this, and maybe they’re still hesitant to start making big moves blowing up chunks of the roster if they don’t advance their goal of staying in the playoff hunt. But an offer of two or three first-rounders should at least catch the attention of a franchise that really needs to commit to a definitive direction one way or the other.