NCAA Women’s basketball season preview: Burning questions, bold predictions, best players, Final Four picks

The NCAA Women’s basketball season begins on Wednesday, Nov. 25 and we’re answering all your burning questions ahead of the college basketball season getting underway.

I still remember the last college basketball game I watched. It was the morning after Rudy Gobert’s positive coronavirus diagnosis that began the quick halt to sports. Fairfield and Siena were facing off in the MAAC quarterfinals. It was a game I’d probably not have been watching under normal circumstances if the Conference USA or Southland tournaments hadn’t been canceled, but it was feeling more and more like that game was the final chance to see basketball for a long time.

And that’s what happened. The NCAA Tournament was canceled soon after and the 19-20 college basketball season was done.

Now, it’s November, and it’s time to try this college basketball thing again. It won’t be smooth. There are justifiable reasons to think it shouldn’t happen at all. But everything is on pace to tip-off on Nov. 25, with a packed day of basketball games.

There’s a lot of questions to address for this upcoming season. Let’s try to tackle some of them now?

NCAA Women’s basketball season preview

Can anyone challenge Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks?

The 2021 NCAA title seems destined to go through South Carolina. Whether that means the Gamecocks and head coach Dawn Staley winning it or it means the eventual champion knocking them off in the Final Four remains to be seen.

South Carolina would have entered the 2020 tournament as favorites had it happened. And even with the graduation of key players Tyasha Harris and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan, SC opens 2020 as the No. 1 team in the rankings thanks to their tremendous depth. Sophomore Aliyah Boston — last year’s National Freshman of the Year and the leading returning player in the country by win shares — is the highlight here. Already a great rebounder and scorer already, Boston will look to take another step forward on both ends of the floor. She’ll be surrounded by a ton of talented players like Brea Beal, Destanni Henderson, and Destiny Littleton at guard and Victaria Saxton on the inside.

Stanford might present the biggest threat to the Gamecocks. The only other team to earn a first-place vote in the preseason AP poll, the Cardinal might be the deepest team in the country. They return all three players who averaged double-digit points last season in Kiana Williams, Lexie Hull, and Haley Jones and sophomore Fran Belibi will look to take a step forward. They also added the No. 3 player in ESPN’s recruiting rankings, Cameron Brink.

Who is the best player in the country?

I don’t like to make statements like “the best player in the country is X,” but I will say the best player in the country is probably Kentucky’s Rhyne Howard.

The junior wing was second in the country in scoring last season at 23.4 points per game, and on the defensive end, she added 2.3 steals and 1.1 blocks per contest. Howard’s an elite player on both ends of the floor, someone capable of scoring all over the floor. This might sound like hyperbole, but there’s really not a lot that Howard can’t do. She can run the offense. She can play off the ball. If there’s one player you watch this year, make it Howard.

Which teams will be pleasant surprises?

I’ve officially jumped onto the Arkansas bandwagon.

Picked fourth in the conference’s preseason poll, the Razorbacks added graduate transfer Destiny Slocum to a team that already features All-SEC Second Team selection, Chelsea Dungee. Head coach Mike Neighbors is a great offensive mind who should have his best Arkansas squad yet behind this strong backcourt. Arkansas also will have WNBA star Kelsey Plum on the bench as a graduate assistant to help this team as well.

Iowa State could be a surprise as well. The Big 12 is seen by many as a two-school conference with Baylor and Texas, but the Cyclones — led by forward Ashley Joens, whose 20.5 points and 10.9 rebounds per game last year ranked 11th and 19th in the nation respectively — have a chance to break through and claim that second spot if Texas and their freshman-heavy team is unable to gel.

Who fills the shoes of Sabrina Ionescu, Lauren Cox and Chennedy Carter?

It’ll be interesting to watch how Oregon navigates this season. Gone are three key players who helped the Duck find success over the past few years: Sabrina Ionescu, Satou Sabally, and Ruthy Hebard.

Replacing that much production — they accounted for 59.3 percent of Oregon’s points per game last season — is going to be tough. Erin Boley is the notable returner. She averaged 9.2 points per game last year. But for Oregon to avoid a down year and stay atop the Pac 12, they’ll need transfer Sedona Prince — a former top 10 recruit for Texas — and the nation’s No. 1 ranked 2020 recruiting class to make an immediate impact. It’ll be a tough ask, but players like Te-Hina Paopao and Sydney Parrish will look to acclimate quickly.

Baylor has to replace plenty of lost production as well. Lauren Cox, Te’a Cooper, and Juicy Landrum are gone. DiDi Richards suffered a spinal injury in the offseason and her status for the start of the season is fuzzy. That means the Lady Bears will have a lot of production to replace. That task begins with junior post NaLyssa Smith, the team’s leading scorer last year. Center Queen Egbo will also look to continue Baylor’s recent tradition of strong post play.

Another Baylor tradition: transfer guards playing key roles. This time, it’s DiJonai Carrington, who comes to Baylor from Stanford. Carrington played just five games last year due to a knee injury, but during the 18-19 season, she averaged 14 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. She ranked in the top 200 nationally in rebounding out of 3,234 college players — not bad at all for a 5-foot-11 guard.

In a different part of Central Texas, the Texas A&M Aggies will try to move on after guard Chennedy Carter left College Station a year early for the NBA. A senior-heavy team that features an impressive frontcourt duo of Ciera Johnson and N’dea Jones, the Aggies entered 2020 with essentially the same team as last year minus Carter. That was a huge minus, but they were granted a significant addition when the NCAA granted Minnesota transfer Destiny Pitts immediate eligibility. Pitts isn’t Chennedy Carter, but she did average 16.3 points in 15 games last season, and her 45.9 percent from 3-point range adds a dimension that A&M didn’t get with their former star. The Aggies should be in good shape to compete in the SEC.

Top freshmen to watch

There’s Paige Bueckers, one of the most hyped high school basketball players in recent memory, at UConn. Bueckers has already been named to the Nancy Lieberman Award watch list for best college point guard before ever playing a game. It’s unclear how much run she’ll get as a first-year player for head coach Geno Auriemma, but if she proves to be ready to handle the step up in competition, Geno will get her on the court.

In fact, point guard, in general, is a deep position when it comes to Freshmen this season. Caitlin Clark (Iowa), Diamond Johnson (Rutgers), Hailey Van Lith (Louisville), and Sarah Andrews (Baylor) should all see plenty of minutes at the one.

Beyond those names, keep an eye on North Carolina guard Deja Kelly. Fresh off leading her high school team to the Texas 6A championship in 2020 — the last sporting event I attended before COVID-19 — Kelly will operate as a combo guard for a UNC school that’s been recruiting really well lately and might be just a couple of years away from breaking through to the next echelon of the college game.

Projected WNBA Draft lottery picks

This is complicated.

See, under normal circumstances we could list some top seniors here and move on, but with the NCAA allowing players an additional year of eligibility this year, there’s a good chance we don’t know who all will even be in this draft class until the week of the draft. That will make draft scouting much more difficult than it would be in most seasons.

Still, here’s a handy list of seniors who theoretically have shots at being lottery picks in April:

• Aari McDonald – Guard – Arizona
• Natasha Mack – Forward – Oklahoma State
• Arella Guirantes – Guard – Rutgers
• Rennia Davis – Forward – Tennessee
• Michaela Onyenwere – Forward – UCLA

In addition, juniors Charli Collier (forward, Texas) and Evina Westbrook (guard, UConn) meet the WNBA’s age requirement for early entry and could be in play.

Coaches on the hot seat

One of the biggest potential hot seat candidates has already been replaced, as the University of Texas moved on from Karen Aston and brought in Vic Schaefer before this season. This season isn’t going to feel normal. I think that’s going to contribute to some relative stability in the coaching ranks. Maybe a school like Michigan with Kim Barnes Arico or Washington with Jody Wynn could look to make a change if they have disappointing seasons.

Final Four predictions

This projects to be a strange season, but if I had to wager a guess this early on about the Final Four, I’d go with South Carolina, Stanford, and UConn as my locks to be in it, with Baylor and Louisville fighting for the other spot. Both teams have some key questions to answer that the other three don’t, and whichever is able to figure out how to replace last year’s production the best will be the favorite for that fourth spot. If I had to guess right now, I’d go Baylor. Kim Mulkey knows how to quickly get new players acclimated to her system down in Waco.

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