Surging Colts should shift away from run-heavy approach

The Colts should change their approach to become legitimate contenders.

The Indianapolis Colts are in an excellent position in the AFC South after a morale-boosting overtime win over the Green Bay Packers moved them to 7-3. Their success has been built on the foundation of one of the NFL’s best defenses but, if they are to be considered legitimate contenders, improvement or change needs to come on the offensive side of the ball.

Unsurprisingly, the numbers love the Colts defense. Indianapolis is fifth in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, ranking sixth against the pass and fifth against the run. The Colts fare even better on defense in terms of Expected Points Added, which is a measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game.

The Colts defense, per data collated by Ben Baldwin of The Athletic, is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play, with Matt Eberflus’ unit fifth in dropback EPA, and seventh in rush EPA.

But the analytics are considerably more lukewarm on the Colts offense, which is 16th in DVOA. The passing attack (18th) fares marginally better than the run game (19th), though EPA and other metrics make it clear where the main problem lies for Frank Reich’s offense.

Here’s why the Indianapolis Colts need to move away from the run

Ground game running cold

The Colts are 20th in EPA per play on offense, the numbers indicating a sub-par running game is dragging down an attack that has performed well in adding value through the air.

Indeed, the Colts are 11th in dropback EPA and dropback success rate, the latter measuring the percentage of plays that contributed positive EPA.

On the ground, however, the Colts are 27th in EPA per play and 23rd in rush success rate, and their struggles running the ball efficiently cannot be solely attributed to either the running backs or the offensive line.

Backs and line both to blame

Per Football Outsiders, the Colts are 25th in Adjusted Line Yards, which takes running back carries and attributes value to the offensive line.

At the same time, they are 27th in Running Back yards, 22nd in Second Level Yards and 26th in Open Field Yards.

In other words, the offensive line is doing a poor job of opening holes for the running backs and the backs have been unsuccessful at creating yardage for themselves, a point hammered home by the performance of the Colts runners in rush yards over expected (RYOE).

RYOE is an NFL NextGen Stats metric that assesses the difference between actual rushing yards and the rushing yards a play or series of plays was expected to gain.

Jordan Wilkins leads the Colts with 0.37 RYOE per attempt while rookie Jonathan Taylor, who was anticipated by many to excel as their lead back in 2020, averages minus 0.33 RYOE per attempt.

To further contextualize the struggles of Wilkins and Taylor to craft extra yardage, the former has faced eight men in the box on 26.39 percent of carries, per NextGen Stats, and the former Wisconsin star has met loaded fronts on 23.7 percent of his attempts.

Nick Chubb, who leads the league with 2.14 RYOE per attempt, has faced at least eight men in the box on 33.33 percent of his carries.

Yet the Colts have stuck ardently to the ground game, and it is that desire to maintain a run-heavy attack that could be their undoing in a potential postseason campaign.

Time for a change

Per Sharp Football Stats, the Colts have run the ball on 44 percent of their offensive snaps, tied for the 10th highest rate in the NFL. Their successful run rate is 46 percent and they are averaging 3.8 yards per rush.

By contrast, their successful pass rate is 51 percent and they average 7.6 yards per attempt. Yet only 10 teams have thrown the ball fewer times than the Colts in 2020.

If there is to be no sudden improvement in the production of the Indianapolis run game, then the Colts need to transition to a more pass-heavy approach if they are to keep pace with the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers come the postseason.

They may be wary of putting the ball in the hands of an aging Philip Rivers too often. However, the Colts have done an impressive job of keeping him upright, their O-Line ranking sixth in the league in Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate.

With the protection they have afforded him, the Colts should be willing to put more of the burden on Rivers to increase the potency of their offense. Beyond keeping Patrick Mahomes in check — as the San Francisco 49ers did for three and a half quarters in Super Bowl LIV — the best route to dethroning the Chiefs is to match their offensive output.

As they are currently programmed, the Colts do not have the capacity to do that. They are talented and well-balanced, but a shift away from the running game is likely needed if the Colts are to challenge for the Super Bowl this season.