NFL Week 13 preview: 45 stats which predict the games

Week 13 of the NFL season is packed with intriguing matchups. Want to know who is going to win? Check out these three stats for each tilt.

Best mismatch for Bengals: Long downs. The Dolphins are dead last in yards per carry (3.6) and T-28th defensively (4.8) — albeit with Cincinnati. Zac Taylor’s club has to win on the ground.

Best mismatch for Dolphins: Get off the field. Miami’s third-down defense is tops in the NFL (32.8%) while Cincinnati’s offense is 29th (36.2%) and with a backup quarterback at the helm.

Stat to know: The Dolphins blitz 41.5 percent of the time, third-most in the NFL. However, their pressure rate (23.0%) is 16th.

Best mismatch for Browns: Keep marching. Tennessee allows a third-down conversion rate of 52.6 percent, worst in the NFL. Baker Mayfield and the running backs have to make the Titans pay.

Best mismatch for Titans: Nothing easy. Cleveland ranks 29th in completion rate (61.2%). Tennessee must make Baker Mayfield throw into tight windows.

Stat to know: The Browns and Titans rank 30th and 31st, respectively, in pressure rate at 18.5 and 17.9 percent.

Best mismatch for Lions: Being on defense. Chicago ranks 28th or worse in third down rate (31.7%), red zone percentage (51.6%) and score per drive rate (32.0%).

Best mismatch for Bears: Buying time. Detroit checks in 31st in quarterback hits (45) and 27th in sack percentage (4.0%).

Stat to know: Chicago averages 4.7 yards per play, only better than the Jets.

Best mismatch for Colts: Stop right there. Indianapolis has missed a league-low 45 tackles. With Will Fuller out and Kenny Still released, there’s very little shake in Houston’s lineup to make defenders miss.

Best mismatch for Texans: Deshaun Watson. Houston doesn’t have many matchup advantages. Indy can’t run, but nobody is worse stopping it than the Texans. If the home team wins, it’s because Watson beats the Colts with his arm and legs.

Stat to know: Houston averages 12.8 yards per completion, best in the sport. It might be tougher, though, without Fuller for the season’s balance.

Best mismatch for Jaguars: Break one. Jacksonville averages 13.5 yards per punt return, second in the NFL. Minnesota’s punt coverage is 25th (11.0 yards/punt).

Best mismatch for Vikings: Big plays incoming. Jacksonville has permitted a league-most 1,575 yards after catch. Against Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, that may spell disaster.

Stat to know: Minnesota averages 8.7 yards per attempt, second only to Houston. Meanwhile, Jacksonville defense is tied with New England for last defensively in the category (8.3)

Best mismatch for Raiders: Get right game. The Jets are dead last in almost every meaningful offensive category. After allowing 43 points in Altanta, the Las Vegas defense has a chance to get well.

Best mismatch for Jets: Buy some time. The Raiders have 12 sacks, only more than Jacksonville (11). Sam Darnold should have a chance to make some plays against a poor secondary.

Stat to know: New York paces the NFL with 104 missed tackles. The Jets are the only team with more than the Raiders, who have 95.

Best mismatch for Saints: No running in here. New Orleans leads the NFL with 3.3 yards per rush against, while Atlanta’s offense is 31st in yards per carry (3.7).

Best mismatch for Falcons: Force mistakes. New Orleans is tied for the league-lead with 21 fumbles while Atlanta has recovered eight, fifth-best in football.

Stat to know: New Orleans allows a 72.4 percent rate in the red zone. Only Kansas City is worse.

Best mismatch for Cardinals: Run to daylight. Arizona averages a league-best 5.0 yards per carry, largely because of quarterback Kyler Murray’s legs. Los Angeles will have to spy him, opening up more passing lanes as well.

Best mismatch for Rams: Thanks for the gift. Arizona leads the league with 85 penalties against, while Los Angeles has committed the second-fewest with 45.

Stat to know: Arizona ranks second in yards per drive (37.9) while Los Angeles is first defensively (26.1).

Best mismatch for Giants: Go deep. Whether it’s Daniel Jones or Colt McCoy, the Giants have to dial up some shots. Seattle has allowed a league-worst 2,167 air yards.

Best mismatch for Seahawks: Don’t take advantage. Seattle’s pass defense is awful, but New York can’t throw. The Giants rank 29th in yards per attempt (6.4) and 30th in yards per completion (10.1).

Stat to know: Seattle surrenders 39.6 yards per drive, worst in football.

Best mismatch for Patriots: Stop the run. Los Angeles checks in T-28th in yards per carry (3.8), while New England is a solid T-12th against (4.3).

Best mismatch for Chargers: Pressure with four. The Chargers blitz less than any other team (16.5%), yet rank 10th in hurry rate (10.3%). Being able to pressure Cam Newton while dropping seven will be a huge advantage.

Stat to know: The Chargers have run 821 offensive plays this year, most in football.

Best mismatch for Eagles: An actual chance? Green Bay is 29th in both hurry (7.1%) and pressure (18.7%) rates, meaning Carson Wentz, who has suffered a league-worst 46 sacks, might have a chance.

Best mismatch for Packers: Make Wentz pay. Philadelphia’s offense ranks 30th in interception rate (3.5%) and yards per attempt (6.1). Green Bay’s secondary has to make plays.

Stat to know: Only the Eagles (29.4%) and Jets (25.6%) score on less than 30 percent of their possessions.

Best mismatch for Broncos: Get home. Denver has the NFL’s second-best pressure rate (26.8%). Against Patrick Mahomes, that needs to be the storyline come Monday for a Denver win.

Best mismatch for Chiefs: Keep moving. Kansas City averages 6.5 yards per play, best in the NFL. Denver will need to limit Mahomes without Bryce Callahan and Von Miller, among others.

Stat to know: Denver turns the ball over on 19.5 percent of its drives, worst in the league.

Best mismatch for Football Team: Stop them short. Pittsburgh averages 9.9 yards per completion, 31st in football. Defensively, Washington ranks T-10th in the metric (10.8).

Best mismatch for Steelers: Hit Alex Smith. Pittsburgh ranks first in pressure rate (34.3%), sacks (38) and hurry rate (14.5%). Washington allows the second-worst sack rate (8.3%) in football.

Stat to know: Pittsburgh has allowed a league-low 177 first downs. In second place? Washington, at 200.

Best mismatch for Bills: Crank the heat. The Bills are ninth in sacks (30) while San Francisco is 22nd in sack rate allowed (6.6%). Under pressure, backup Nick Mullens can be forced into mistakes.

Best mismatch for 49ers: No ground gained. The Bills rank T-20th in yards per carry (4.1) while San Francisco’s defense checks in eighth against (4.0).

Stat to know: Buffalo ranks second offensively on third down (49.6%) while San Francisco’s defense is eighth (37.6%).

Best mismatch for Cowboys: Open airways. Despite great corners, Baltimore doesn’t get to the ball. The Ravens rank 28th in interception rate (1.4%) and T-28th in passes defensed (34).

Best mismatch for Ravens: Pound the rock. Dallas surrenders 4.9 YPC, worst in football. Baltimore averages 4.9 yards per rush, tied for fifth-best in the league.

Stat to know: Baltimore leads the NFL in blitz percentage (44.8%).