Explosive offense has Vikings back in the playoff hunt

The Vikings are explosive and back in the playoff mix.

Back in Week 6, the Minnesota Vikings looked dead in the water after a blowout home loss to the Atlanta Falcons that dropped them to 1-5. However, after a run of four wins in their last five games since the bye week, the Vikings are firmly back in the playoff hunt with their much-maligned quarterback performing at a level to rival the best in the NFL.

The Vikings improved to 5-6, just one game out of the last Wild Card spot, in Week 12 by overturning an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Carolina Panthers 28-27.

Though the manner of the victory against a team still building for the future is unlikely to fuel much excitement around the Vikings as playoff contenders, the play of quarterback Kirk Cousins should serve as a reason for intrigue.

Cousins threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns and zero interceptions, marking his second successive game in which he did not throw a pick. Since throwing three interceptions in the loss to Atlanta, Cousins has been picked just once — in the Week 10 win over the Chicago Bears – the former Washington signal-caller producing efficient play that has been crucial in helping the Vikings offense perform at a level that suggests Minnesota can make a late run at the postseason.

Kirk Cousins has been efficient and accurate

Week 12 saw Cousins do an extremely impressive job of delivering the ball accurately and making low percentage throws.

Indeed, Cousins completed 75.6 percent of his passes against the Panthers when, according to the NFL’s NextGen Stats, he was only anticipated to connect on 64 percent. His completion percentage above expectation of 11.6 was second only to Patrick Mahomes (12.1) in Week 12.

Russell Wilson (6) is the only quarterback outperforming Cousins (5.9) in completion percentage above expectation for the season.

That ability to make throws few others would has undoubtedly been a contributor to Cousins’ performance in Expected Points Added.

According to data collated by Ben Baldwin of The Athletic, Cousins ranks ninth among all qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play.

Cousins is also performing very well in Football Outsiders‘ efficiency metric Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). He is seventh among all quarterbacks in DVOA, though he does not come out quite as well in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), in which he is 12th.

His accuracy and the efficient manner of Cousins’ play has allowed the Vikings to field one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

Vikings are getting big plays on early downs

The Vikings, per Sharp Football Stats, rank first in the NFL with an explosive play rate of 13 percent.

Minnesota is second in terms of explosive pass plays, which are categorized as plays that result in gains of 15 yards or more. The Vikings’ success in this metric is just not influenced by Cousins, though, with Minnesota third in the NFL in explosive run plays, which are runs that net gains of at least 10 yards.

What is extremely encouraging is that the Vikings have produced explosive plays on early downs. They rank second in explosive plays – first in passing and third in rushing – on first and second down. As a result, they have the lowest number of third-down attempts in the NFL (117), per ESPN.

Third down is mistakenly seen as the most important down in the NFL, but the Vikings are doing a superb job of evading it all together and have avoided putting themselves under the unnecessary strain of consistently needing to make plays on third down.

And they have done this despite utilizing a run-heavy attack. The Vikings’ run rate of 48 percent is the fifth highest in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Stats.

Passing is still more efficient for the Vikings, who are averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt compared to 5.0 yards per rush. Yet the explosiveness they have yielded from both their passing attack and their ground game indicates there does not necessarily need to be a massive shift towards the former despite Cousins’ recent performances.

This is a balanced offense that has the personnel gash defenses with the run and the pass. With a schedule that includes the Jacksonville Jaguars, the rapidly fading Chicago Bears and the coach-less Detroit Lions in the final five games, that could be a recipe for the Vikings to sneak into the postseason as a Wild Card with the firepower to hang with the best teams in the NFC.