The Whiteboard: Best- and worst-case scenario for Rockets after John Wall trade

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The Houston Rockets traded Russell Westbrook to the Washington Wizards for John Wall on Wednesday night, in a classic case of “hateable on the surface but actually makes sense when you think about it.”

For the Wizards, they’re getting the better, healthier player. For the Rockets, they’re getting rid of a guy who didn’t want to be in Houston, who didn’t fit well alongside James Harden and who couldn’t accept a secondary role.

As has been the case with most of general manager Rafael Stone’s offseason, however, this move raises questions about what the future holds for Harden and his team. We already know the Beard wants a trade to the Brooklyn Nets. We already know the Rockets have no incentive to move him unless this season implodes and they receive a blockbuster offer. And we already know, despite Houston’s understandable desire to keep a perennial MVP candidate, its chances of keeping him happy by winning a title with this group are slim.

Bearing all that in mind, and with the John Wall trade capping off a risk-heavy, last-ditch-effort kind of offseason, we might as well take a realistic look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Rockets now.

Best-case scenario

Apologies to Rockets fans, but that “realistic” part matters — even in this best-case scenario, Houston isn’t winning the 2021 title, and that alone casts further doubt on how much longer Harden will remain in Clutch City.

However, the best-case scenario isn’t all bad, as Wall not only stays healthy but fits alongside Harden in the backcourt better than Russ ever did. Not only does he make Harden’s life easier as a facilitator, living up to his career average of 9.2 assists per game, but he also makes defenses pay for leaving him open off the ball, matching his career-high 37.1 percent 3-point shooting that he set back in 2017-18 (on 4.1 attempts per game, no less!).

Wall and Harden prove to be terrific pick-and-roll complements to another new arrival, Christian Wood, who wins Most Improved Player honors as he expands on the 22.8 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.0 blocks per game he averaged with the Detroit Pistons following the Andre Drummond trade. He also matches the efficiency he posted in that stretch (56.2 percent shooting from the floor and 40 percent shooting from deep), making him a legitimate stretch-4 and/or small-ball 5.

Like Wall, DeMarcus Cousins stays healthy, and though he doesn’t recapture his former All-NBA status, he’s still an offensive force like he was two seasons ago with the Golden State Warriors, when he averaged 16.3 points, 8.2 boards and 3.6 assists per game. Even better, his 3-point stroke returns, as he bumps up the 27.4 percent shooting he posted that year by a full 10 percentage points.

P.J. Tucker continues to be a defensive force and corner 3-point sniper, Eric Gordon bounces back with a fully healthy season and the Rockets secure the 4-seed in the West. They handily win their first-round series before getting bounced by one of the LA teams in a competitive second-round series. Despite coming up short yet again, Harden is satisfied with a surprisingly successful season and his new GM’s commitment to getting him over the hump. The Nets never look like a legit contender in the East, which makes it easier for Harden to remain a Rocket for the rest of his prime.

Worst-case scenario

John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins can’t stay healthy, and that is the beginning of the end for Houston.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise. Wall has missed 163 out of a possible 236 games (69 percent) for the Wizards over the last three seasons, while Boogie has missed 86 of a possible 164 games (52 percent) over his last two healthy seasons … and that’s without including last year, where he would’ve missed all 71 games for the Los Angeles Lakers if they hadn’t waived him in February.

If that happens, with his starting point guard being a shell of his former self and one of Houston’s only capable centers being constantly banged up, James Harden will want out by the trade deadline. Simple as that.

Again, the Rockets don’t need to move their best player and franchise cornerstone, but with the Beard clearly unhappy, the team floundering in the competitive West and Houston needing to capitalize on his value before he gets another year older, the front office ultimately settles for a very good but not superb package from the Nets. The Philadelphia 76ers try to strike a deal too but are unwilling to surrender Ben Simmons, which torpedoes those trade talks right away.

Just like that, the James Harden era is over, without a ring to its name. In Tillman Fertitta’s brief tenure as owner, he’ll have pushed Harden, Westbrook, Chris Paul, Mike D’Antoni, Daryl Morey and Houston’s fading hopes of winning a title out the door for the next half-decade (at least). Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen and draft picks is a decent package to build around, but it’s hardly a contender. In fact, it may not even be a playoff team, and despite getting a fair bit of draft compensation for the Beard, Houston’s rebuild will struggle because of all the picks the Rockets shelled out in recent years.

Cousins fades into the 2021 free agency background as yet another remarkable NBA career ruined by injury (and the Sacramento Kings). Wall remains on the books for the next two years, eating up a whopping $44.3 million and $47.4 million in salary over that stretch. Tucker jets in 2021 as a free agent, Wood puts up big numbers but doesn’t really impact winning on a bad Rockets squad, and Eric Gordon continues to struggle with injuries while making $16.9 million, $18.2 million and $19.6 million over the next three years.

Getting their hands on a rising two-way star like LeVert is a win for the Rockets, but their hopes for contending in the future rely on drafting another superstar and perennial MVP candidate like Harden — no easy feat. And in that respect, the deteriorating health of Wall and Cousins is just the insurance nail in the coffin of a once-promising era for the Rockets, leading to Harden’s departure and a new, far more depressing chapter in the franchise’s history.

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