Inside the Clubhouse: Kyle Schwarber and the non-tender bloodbath

With an enormous number of non-tenders, the MLB free agency market has swelled to an absurd size.

The fear across the industry had been that there would be a record-breaking number of non-tenders, perhaps into the triple digits. One prominent agent predicted that it would be a “bloodbath.” The possibilities teams had for non-tendering players, one National League general manager said in November, was “way more broad than ever.”

The final number of non-tenders (59) equaled the number of pre-tender deals. Only 13 of those deals were guaranteed, according to sources, with agents scrambling to secure deals for players amid concerns that an increasingly saturated free-agent market could lead to below-market deals.

“I’m hearing that the pitchers will get taken care of on this market,” one agent said, “but there are questions surrounding the hitters and what they will get paid.”

The market for free-agent pitchers has been strong. Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman both accepted the $18.9 million qualifying offers. Robbie Ray signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Mike Minor signed a two-year, $18 million deal with the Kansas City Royals. The Atlanta Braves signed Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11 million deal and Charlie Morton to a one-year, $15 million deal.

To date, the only hitter to sign a major-league deal is Michael Taylor (Royals), and the expectation is the offensive market will remain at a standstill. There are few elite offensive players available and a plethora of mid-tier options available. Teams are hesitant to commit to free agents until there is clarity on whether the designated hitter will remain in the National League in 2021 and beyond.

There are teams such as the Mets, Blue Jays and Braves, among others, that may continue to jump the market. But some clubs might choose to remain patient the next couple of months, waiting for additional clarity on payroll and whether fans will be in the stands, before pouncing on a free agent class that now features more than 230 players.

“This is a nightmare for the players’ association,” former pitcher Ron Darling said on MLB Network. “The one thing [former union chief] Marvin Miller never wanted was a glut of players out on the free-agent market.”

What’s the market for Marcus Semien?

Free-agent shortstop Marcus Semien is drawing interest from several teams and a few have asked about his ability to play second or third bases.

Semien, 30, has logged 79 games in his eight-year career at both positions, with his most recent third-base experience coming with the Chicago White Sox in 2014. But he works out at both positions during the season and could play either position should the right opportunity present itself.

Other teams, however, have reached out to Semien and said they would move their current shortstop to accommodate him.

Semien is among the top free agents available, and despite hitting .223/.305/.374 with seven home runs and 23 RBI, his agent Joel Wolfe told the San Francisco Chronicle that “we’ve always viewed Marcus as a $100-million plus player.”

“The season we just had was just too short, you know? So it’s probably tough for teams to evaluate players,” Semien recently told NBC Sports. “I try not to make it a Doomsday type of situation. I think there are some good players out there that deserve what they’re worth.”

But what could impact Semien the most is the upcoming 2021 free-agent shortstop class which features Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez. There are a number of teams looking for a shortstop, but it is possible some hesitate to commit to a multi-year deal this year with the hope of landing one of the stars in next winter’s class.

It remains likely that Semien lands a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency, with the Athletics among the interested teams. It has been considered a longshot that he would return to Oakland, but after a down season and a historic free-agent shortstop class looming, perhaps a return isn’t as unlikely as once thought.

A last-minute Corey Knebel trade

10 minutes before the non-tender deadline, a Brewers executive with direct knowledge of the situation said that it was “looking like Corey Knebel won’t get (a deal) done” and that a non-tender appeared imminent.

Five minutes before the deadline, the Brewers reached an agreement to send Knebel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

The deal came at the eleventh hour and sent one of the Brewers’ best relievers to the defending World Series champions. Had Knebel been non-tendered, his market in free agency would have been strong, with one high-ranking National League official saying his team was “salivating” when reports surfaced that he would reach free agency.

Instead, Knebel heads to a Dodgers team that is uniquely positioned to take on his $5 million salary. When healthy, he has established himself as one of baseball’s best relievers. But he is 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery and put up a 6.08 ERA in 15 appearances with his fastball velocity dropping from 96.9 mph in 2018 to 94.3 in 2020.

Knebel, however, showed glimpses of his pre-injury form late in the season, highlighted by a six-strikeout performance against the Cardinals on Sept. 15. The Dodgers have had recent success adding pitchers coming off injury, such as Brandon Morrow and Blake Treinen, and are hoping for similar results for Knebel.

“He has a chance to be really productive again,” one Brewers executive said. “Once he gets far enough removed from surgery, watch out. His stuff was there in flashes.”

Said one teammate of Knebel’s in Milwaukee: “He’s not done by any stretch.”

Kyle Schwarber and other intriguing non-tenders

Hanser Alberto: The Orioles’ decision to non-tender Alberto primarily came down to financial reasons. While he was one of Baltimore’s best hitters, especially against left-handed pitching, the team ultimately believed he was not worth the $2-4 million he was projected to earn in 2021. General manager Mike Elias has not ruled out a return, but it is possible that the interest in Alberto throughout the league prices them out of the market.

Kyle Schwarber: After a down season in which he hit .188/.308/.393 with 11 home runs and 24 RBI, Schwarber appears likely to accept a one-year deal to rebuild his value. The Yankees have been mentioned by rival executives as a potential fit for Schwarber, citing their need for a left-handed bat and how his power would play at Yankee Stadium. But with Giancarlo Stanton entrenched at designated hitter, there may not be a clear spot for Schwarber on the roster.

Eddie Rosario: Rosario was shopped by the Twins and placed on outright waivers before being non-tendered. Now a free agent, he is expected to draw considerable interest. He has slashed .277/.310/.478 in 2,830 plate appearances and hit at least 24 home runs three times in his career, most recently hitting 32 in 2019. But with Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach close to the majors, and with MLB Trade Rumors projecting Rosario to earn $8.6-12.9 million in arbitration, the Twins believed now was the right time to part ways.

Chasen Shreve: Shreve, 30, was a surprising non-tender by the New York Mets. He had success against both right and left-handed hitters in a multi-inning relief role and ranked sixth among all left-handed relievers in strikeout percentage (minimum of 20 innings) out of 30 qualifiers. It is unlikely Shreve would have commanded more than $1 million in arbitration and was likely let go because of a crowded bullpen after the Trevor May signing. Shreve is said to be drawing immediate interest.

Around the Horn:

• The Mets are in serious talks with free-agent catcher James McCann, according to league sources, and there is an increasing belief that he will command a four-year deal.
• Jean Segura is drawing trade interest, and one team that has expressed interest is the Blue Jays, sources said. It is unknown how far along talks have progressed, but general manager Ross Atkins told reporters that the team has “clear frameworks” in place for potential moves.
• The Rule 5 Draft is on Dec. 12, and one name drawing buzz is New York Yankees right-handed pitcher Kaleb Ort. He has a 3.14 ERA in three minor-league seasons and has allowed only three home runs against 566 batters faced with the Yankees.
• Cleveland Indians reliever James Karinchak is now represented by Eric Izen of Vayner Sports. Karinchak finished sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting.