Here’s how the Steelers can still win the No. 1 seed

The Pittsburgh Steelers finally lost their first game, but the No. 1 seed is still within reach.

Playing their second game in five days, the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ undefeated streak finally came to an end against a well-rested Washington Football team. Monday’s 23-17 loss at home dropped the Steelers to 11-1, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the NFL.

Because of the recent changes to the league’s playoff structure, only the 1-seed in each conference gets a first-round bye, as opposed to the top two seeds like before. This means finishing atop the AFC is a big priority for the Steelers if they want to avoid a first-round matchup.

Pittsburgh’s banged up defense is currently running on fumes and the offense continues to sputter, but there is still a path for one of the AFC’s elite teams to wind up with the No. 1 seed.

Here’s what has to happen for the Steelers to win the 1-seed in the AFC

Obviously, the easiest path for the Steelers to secure the 1-seed is winning out and finishing 15-1, while the Chiefs lose one of their remaining four games. That’s going to be tough; thanks to the NFL’s scheduling woes with the COVID-19 pandemic, Pittsburgh will be playing its third game in 12 days when it plays the Buffalo Bills on the road this Sunday. After that, the Steelers still have contests against the dreadful Cincinnati Bengals, the 8-4 Indianapolis Colts and the 9-3 Cleveland Browns left. Only the Colts game is at home.

Fortunately, the Chiefs don’t have a cakewalk schedule either. Their remaining four games are against the 8-4 Miami Dolphins, the 10-2 New Orleans Saints, the improved Atlanta Falcons and the struggling Los Angeles Chargers. However, given how great KC has looked since its only loss back in Week 5, Patrick Mahomes and company could very easily close out the season 4-0.

If the Steelers and Chiefs both finish 15-1, the next tiebreaker comes down to conference record, since the normal tiebreaker (head-to-head) doesn’t apply to two teams who won’t play each other this season. If that’s the case, the Steelers will secure the 1-seed as long as they remain undefeated against the AFC. The Chiefs have already lost a game to an AFC rival thanks to the Las Vegas Raiders, so as long as Pittsburgh takes care of business against its AFC opponents, a tied record with Kansas City would grant Steel City the 1-seed.

If the Steelers lose down the stretch to an AFC team but the Chiefs drop another game to an opponent outside their conference, the next tiebreaker is win-loss percentage in common games, followed by win-loss percentage in conference games. And if they’re still somehow tied, it will come down to strength of victory.