Fansided

Fantasy Football: Where projections go astray – Players I was wrong about

By Ben Grivas

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 08: Levi Wallace #39 of the Buffalo Bills tackles DK Metcalf #14 of the Seattle Seahawks during the first half at Bills Stadium on November 08, 2020 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 08: Levi Wallace #39 of the Buffalo Bills tackles DK Metcalf #14 of the Seattle Seahawks during the first half at Bills Stadium on November 08, 2020 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images) /
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The player wasn’t utilized as expected

Sometimes, a player’s role in the offense changes, which can severly alter their fantasy value. Kenyan Drake was a very glaring example of a role change for the negative this year, unfortunate for me, as I ranked him as my RB7. Drake’s touchdown rate decreased, as Kyler Murray became the goal line back, and his targets per game fell off a cliff, from 4.86 to 2.09. Drake’s value was primarily volume rushing for the majority of the year, and has only gone up lately due to an increase in goal line carries instigated by Kyler Murray’s shoulder injury. My mistake here was extrapolating 8 games of boom-bust production as a “reliable” RB1. That’s way too small of a sample size to trust in.

I made a similar mistake with Tyler Higbee, though I do defend my advice to draft him. He put up 21.4 PPG in his five games as the starter in 2019. While Gerald Everett was injured, and Sean McVay is notorious for changing up his offense at any point in the season, this upside was too good to pass up in the 7th round. You shoot for upside later in the draft, and while Higbee certainly did not hit (aside from Week 2), I’ll draft a player like him again in the 7th round any day of the week.

Another player I got wrong was D.J. Moore. New coach, new quarterback, new wide receiver eating away targets. Robby Anderson came in and stole Moore’s underneath receiving work, creating a deficit of targets that I did not predict. I’ve actually developed a grudge against Teddy Bridgewater while watching the Panthers this season, as he just ignores a wide-open D.J. Moore all game while seeking other options. When he does target him, he’s not that accurate. The video below is nothing short of tragic.

My biggest mistake in these calls was trusting that a small sample size of production would hold up. Why would I trust Moore, with one good season as a WR2 and with a new coach and QB, over someone like Adam Thielen, who had years of production in the same role in the offense. Granted Thielen was my WR9, but in most drafts I’m choosing my WR8 (Moore) if they are both available, which was undoubtedly a mistake.

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