Patrick Mahomes overcomes early mistakes to beat feisty Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes overcame early mistakes to beat the Miami Dolphins. We have his report card and analysis.

The Kansas City Chiefs moved to 12-1 and are the favorite to land the league’s top seed after beating the Miami Dolphins and seeing the Pittsburgh Steelers fall again in Week 14.

The Chiefs’ 33-27 win was a wild ride. Up 30-10 at the end of the third quarter, this game was almost a blowout thanks to an offensive explosion to start the second-half. But Miami ended up with the chance to win it late in the fourth as the Chiefs broke down.

We’ve been focusing on Patrick Mahomes’ historic MVP-push in 2020 each week, breaking down every throw and decision. His 24-of-34 for 393 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions was likely his worst game of the year. But he still did a lot of good to overcome the bad plays.

We’re looking beyond the stat sheet to analyze Mahomes this season. I’ve been charting catchable passes for the last six years for collegiate quarterback prospects, and the results have brought solid baselines in key areas of accuracy to project NFL success.

Mahomes benefitted from this, and the project is partially why I was so high on him as a prospect. We’ll be grading him on playmaking, decision-making, accuracy, efficiency, and awareness in addition to tracking his directional and situational passing effectiveness.

Playmaking: B-

This game was the epitome of the importance to balance the fine line between accountability but understanding of intent. Patrick Mahomes had some brilliant moments that pushed the Chiefs to their win against a feisty Miami Dolphins defense. He also pushed too much at times, and nearly gave the Dolphins a real window to win.

The good outweighed the bad just enough, and some of the bad plays were incidental. Mahomes had two interceptions, a muffed snap and an NFL-record 30-yard sack all in the first quarter. He tried to do too much and it all backfired at once.

We haven’t seen things snowball like that for Mahomes yet in his career. Miami was swarming, opportunistic, and a little lucky. Their defensive speed was able to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs in many ways. Unfortunately they weren’t perfect, and there were enough mismatches and windows for Mahomes to create outside of structure to grab the game.

Mahomes was again excellent outside of the pocket, including some absurd angle manipulation and accuracy to moving targets. He missed just one of his seven throws outside of the tackle box, and two went for touchdowns. He also converted a first down on four of the completions.

Maybe it can be argued that two of his interceptions came from trying to be a playmaker but I wouldn’t say that. Those were accuracy issues and we’ll show that later. When Mahomes had to create and make plays, he did so outside of the sack.

Decision-Making: C+

Virtually anytime a player has three interceptions on their stat line, it’s fair to guess their decision-making was off at some point. It’s one thing to miss an open receiver because a quarterback was stuck on an earlier target or there’s a situational gaffe, but creating turnovers and big sacks are even more damaging. Over the course of 34 passing attempts, Mahomes had two extremely costly decisions and that brings down an otherwise solid grade.

The first interception came early on a slip screen pass. The Dolphins defended it extraordinarily well, and Mahomes was not expecting the grounded defender to pop upwards to tip the pass into the air. He forced it, and the top went right into the hands of Eric Rowe.

Things got better after that interception besides the sack where Mahomes rolled into a faster defender. His first touchdown pass was an excellent display of playmaking, accuracy and decision-making. He found Travis Kelce on a crossbody throw after Mahomes cleared out the space with his legs and eyes.

It’s an intentional move we see every week and it always works. Otherwise, Mahomes showed good judgment and understanding of Miami’s scheme as the game progressed. This wasn’t a good game compared to his high bar but there was plenty of redeeming moments to keep an acceptable grade.

Accuracy: C

There’s a lot to love about Mahomes’ accuracy profile outside of the two interceptions that I’d attribute to his ball placement. He delivered two devastating downfield passes that sealed the win, and was five-of-six on intermediate throws. Overall just five of his 23 attempts beyond the line of scrimmage were uncatchable.

Two went for interceptions, though. The second was the worst of the bunch because there was nothing the defense had to do. This was solely on Mahomes’ inaccuracy on the move.

This is a throw we’ve seen Mahomes hit, at a higher difficulty, multiple times each week this year. The ball is thrown too high and hard, ricocheting off the receiver’s hands and into the air. Some of these fall harmlessly to the ground but he didn’t have that luck this week.

The redeeming moment came quickly in the second-quarter as the offense started to find its groove. Mahomes stuck in the pocket despite incoming pressure, and hit a window that barely existed, allowing Travis Kelce to continue upfield. The angle here required a fantastic blend of timing, velocity and placement.

Negative plays weight heavily here and I counted Howard’s interception as an accuracy issue because the ball could’ve been placed over Tyreek Hill’s shoulder. A middling C is still not bad considering the negatives, but it took Mahomes’ extreme skill set to overcome them.

Efficiency: B-

We saw a rollercoaster performance from Mahomes this week, making his grading extremely difficult. Most of the Chiefs’ drives ended with a score or turnover. And after the first quarter, Mahomes had just one blunder.

Overvaluing that mistake, which was an insanely good play by Xavien Howard, wouldn’t be fair. Three quarters of the right decisions and great accuracy helped dig the Chiefs out of their early deficit. Miami couldn’t overcome their own offensive mistakes and keep up with this unit as soon as Kansas City stopped giving the ball away.

The shocking fact from this game is that Mahomes had just two red zone passes, and they came at the end of the first half. His first red zone pass came with 46 seconds remaining in the second quarter, and they never attempted another pass there again. The big plays helped avoid the restricted field.

He was also vey good under pressure. He had one touchdown and one interception, with eight catchable passes on 11 attempts. He must be among the best in the league with his consistency while rushed considering his weekly numbers are so good.

Awareness: C

He was solid on third downs, including the decision to throw deep to Kelce in a one-on-one situation. The awareness to revert to the strong-side throw with single coverage as the defense caved in on him was fantastic. These plays separate the elite from everyone else.

The deep Hill touchdown and the Kelce touchdown were other great examples of overcoming adverse situations or seeing the right advantages. This was a game of extremes, and those positives won the game. But the first 15 minutes of the game dragged his grade down significantly.

We’ve only seen Mahomes have three interceptions in one other game throughout his career. This was shocking but also the result of some bad luck. He’s still in the far lead for the MVP award, with Aaron Rodgers looking like the only real competitor for the 25-year-old.