Heisman forecast for top 6 contenders entering championship weekend

Consider this the 2020 election where early voting should be avoided, at any and all costs.

Heisman Trophy ballots hit voters’ inboxes Monday and these final days before votes are due couldn’t be twinged with much more drama. Well, take that back. A stumble in the fog in Gainesville would have taken it up another notch with the three leaders all suiting up in the SEC Championship Game and the award seemingly up for grabs. But we at least head into conference title weekend with at plenty yet to be decided in the trophy chase, and plenty of reason for voters to hold onto their ballots until after Saturday’s games have been played as six of the leading candidates will take the field.

Let’s dive into where each contender stands, their chances of making the ceremony and leaving with the trophy. Each player is listed based on the latest odds via FanDuel.

One caveat in this exercise is that we don’t know how many players will be invited in any year (it’s based on the natural break in point totals) and with the first totally virtual ceremony it seems a bigger unknown. But the expectation here is we don’t see the field expanded beyond the six finalists that were included in 1994 and 2013.

Mac Jones, Alabama

He heads to Atlanta with the Heisman all but his to lose. That may have already the case before last weekend, but Kyle Trask’s missteps in Florida’s loss to LSU only strengthened the Crimson Tide quarterback’s standing. The junior’s odds sit at a leading minus-250, and he’s primed to do major damage against a Gators defense that’s 78th vs. the pass and allowed three touchdown passes against LSU freshman Max Johnson, who was making his first career start.

It’s difficult seeing Florida slowing down Jones, whose less-than-spectacular outing vs. Arkansas may have been sans a touchdown pass, but still included an 82.8 completion percentage for the nation’s most efficient passer (203.9 rating). At this point, he’d have to be abysmal and Trask delivers an all-time kind of performance to deny Jones.

Heisman Forecast: In a year that has been high on the unlikely don’t give the word to engrave the nameplate just yet, but Jones is the most logical choice on the team that has dominated the season. Seven first-year starting quarterbacks have won the Heisman, but two of those players were transfers (Kyle Murray in 2018 and Cam Newton in 2010) and two were redshirt freshmen (Johnny Manziel in 2012 and Jameis Winston in 2013). Jones is in line to join John Huarte (1964) and Tim Tebow (2007), the only recipients whose wins came after their first year of play on the team they broke into college with.