NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 15 Sunday Slates
NFL DFS Bargain Bin: Week 15 Sunday Slates Running Backs
J.K. Dobbins, BAL vs. JAX ($5,900-DK/$5,900-FD)
The value running back market is a bit challenging to decipher this week, and ideally, Dobbins’ salary on DK would be just a tad smaller, given his timeshare role. However, he still has a solid chance of delivering a strong return against a Jags defense that appeared to be trending up against the run at one point before beginning another downward slide that continued in drastic fashion against Derrick Henry in Week 14. Dobbins also profiles as the de facto lead back in Baltimore’s backfield at the moment in terms of workload, and although he’s been quiet on the pass-catching front in the last two games, he already demonstrated an ability to put together solid numbers as an outlet receiver earlier in the season.
After getting gashed by Henry to the tune of 215 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday, the Jaguars have now allowed the third-most rushing yards to running backs overall (1,534) and are tied with the Browns for fourth-most rushing TDs (12) surrendered to the position as well. Jacksonville is also giving up the eighth-highest RB yards per carry (4.54) and checks in as the third-most generous defense in terms of open-field yards per tote yielded (1.00). Meanwhile, Dobbins is averaging an impressive 5.3 yards per rush, boasts an elite broken-tackle rate of 18.8 percent and has notched a rushing TD in three consecutive games. He also sports 18 total red-zone touches despite his part-time role and has 17 receptions on 22 targets, giving him an abundance of positive fantasy traits in a game Baltimore should eventually take control of in the second half.
Jeff Wilson, Jr., SF at DAL ($5,100-DK/$5,800-FD)
Somewhat similar to Dobbins, Wilson is also splitting work in his backfield, with Raheem Mostert the player who’s actually outpacing Wilson slightly at the moment. However, Wilson does have double-digit carries in three of his past four games — twice with Mostert active alongside him — and he also enjoys a significant red-zone role that’s seen him log 20 touches in that area of the field across nine games. Moreover, Wilson has a modest but existent pass-catching profile, having logged 15 targets over nine contests. Granted, given it’s the Cowboys defense serving as the Niners’ opponent this week, Mostert would theoretically also be a very appealing play.
However, Wilson is $700 cheaper than his teammate on DK and $1,100 less on FD, plus Mostert is also dealing with a new ankle issue after having just recently come off a stint on injured reserve due to a bad sprain. That means Wilson could see a particularly robust workload at a discount against a Dallas unit that’s allowing the most rushing yards per game (162.7), along with the most adjusted line yards (4.88 ) and second-highest RB yards per carry (5.0). Then, consider the Cowboys are also ranked in the bottom half of the league with a 65.22 percent red-zone touchdown success rate allowed at home, which dovetails well for fantasy purposes with Wilson’s aforementioned expanded role near the goal line (15 carries inside the 10-yard line).