The 2020 NFL season has boiled down to four teams and three games, with the first two taking place on Championship Sunday.
Best mismatch for Buccaneers: No running. The Buccaneers ranked first during the regular season in yards allowed per carry (3.6). Now, they could be getting run-stuffing specialist Vita Vea back this week. The Packers’ three-headed monster of Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon and Jamaal Williams helped the team rank T-5th in the same metric (4.8).
However, if Tampa Bay can hold strong against the Green Bay front, it forces Aaron Rodgers to throw in long downs and distances. This means Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles can blitz, something he loves to do. Only the Arizona Cardinals had a tiger blitz percentage this season than Tampa Bay among NFC teams.
Best mismatch for Packers: Go deep. Aaron Rodgers will be looking long against the Buccaneers, who rank 29th in air yardage allowed (2,656). Rodgers was swarmed under by Tampa Bay four times in their Week 6 matchup — a 38-10 loss — not giving him the chance to test the Bucs’ secondary.
If the Packers’ offensive line can hold up better this time, Rodgers should have opportunities one-on-one against the blitz to hit Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and Marques Valdez-Scantling for big plays.
Stat to know: Green Bay’s offense is the NFL’s best in the red zone (80.0%).
Best mismatch for Bills: Make it count. The Bills aren’t fantastic offensively in the red zone, ranking 13th (61.8%) in the red zone — one spot above the Chiefs. However, Kansas City is a disaster defensively in this area. Steve Spagnuolo’s group is dead last, allowing touchdowns on a whopping 76.6 percent of trips.
If Buffalo is going to pull the upset at Arrowhead Stadium, it likely includes Josh Allen and Co. slamming into the end zone when they visit the red zone. If these trips end in field goals, Buffalo’s season also ends on Sunday.
Best mismatch for Chiefs: Give Patrick Mahomes time. The Chiefs don’t have a stellar offensive line after losing former All-Pro guard Kelechi Osemele and All-Pro tackle Mitchell Schwartz in consecutive October games. However, Mahomes has enjoyed the third-lowest sack rate (3.7%).
Meanwhile, the Bills blitz often — something Mahomes torches. Buffalo ranks eighth in blitz percentage (35.8%) but only checks in T-22nd in pressure rate (21.0%). The Bills are also without a single player who has more than five sacks.
If Mahomes has all day to throw, it’s going to be a long night for the Bills.
Stat to know: The Chiefs are the first AFC team in league history to host the AFC Championship Game in three consecutive years. This after never previously hosting it in franchise history.