Rennia Davis has the two-way versatility to be a WNBA star

Rennia Davis has the size and skill to fill multiple roles at both ends of the floor. That versatility should keep her near the top of the WNBA Draft.

Tennessee forward Rennia Davis is arguably the top wing prospect in the 2021 WNBA Draft and, if things break the right way in terms of early-entry candidates, is a potential option for the New York Liberty with the top overall pick. Could the Lady Vols senior see her name called first by WNBA commissioner Cathy Engelbert?

The keyword when it comes to Davis is versatility. The 6-foot-2 forward is the kind of multi-positional option that should give coaches and general managers at the top of this draft plenty to think about. She has the potential to play either the 3 or 4 on a full-time basis, with the ball-handling skills needed to spend some time as a secondary playmaker and the rebounding and size to spend some time as a small-ball 5 in a pinch, especially in a system like the five-out offense that New York employs. And while there are serious questions about her ability to create her own shot and shoot the ball from deep, her defensive tenacity is a huge benefit to Davis’ draft stock.

What makes Rennia Davis such a compelling prospect?

Let’s start with Davis’ defense because there are fewer question marks on that side of the ball when it comes to fitting her into a WNBA team.

At 6-foot-2, Davis is really the only big wing among the top-tier players in this class. Texas’ Charli Collier and Finland’s Awak Kuier are 5s. Arella Guirantes from Rutgers is 5-foot-11. Michaela Onyenwere is 6-foot and extremely athletic, but might not be able to play full-time at the 4 like Davis. This puts Davis in a unique position: she fits the archetype that teams want better than almost anyone in this draft.

Davis ranks in the 69th percentile this season among Division I players in block rate and is a ferocious rebounder, but maybe the more important thing when projecting with her is that she’s able to defend at multiple levels.

This play is a great example of what Davis can do on the defensive end. The Lady Vols double the ball-handler here, which leads to the pass out to the shooter on the perimeter. That could end up as an open look based on how the defense was arranged pre-pass, but Davis uses her speed to quickly get out there and cover to prevent the catch-and-shoot look. But she also has the awareness to not close-out too much here, forcing the drive but also keeping herself in a great position to play the drive. She quickly becomes an on-ball defender on the drive, sticks with the offensive player, and then uses her vertical skills to go up and block the eventual shot attempt.

It’s just a masterful display what makes Davis a terrifying player to face when she’s defending you and showcases the versatility that should lead to her being effective on that end in the WNBA.
The only real question mark with Davis on defense is what happens if she’s forced to play some straight-up post defense. While their defensive tracking can be unreliable, Synergy has Davis logged as having defended zero post-up possessions this year. Her ability to stick with her defender and get vertical should mean she’d be serviceable there, but Davis having to defend a Brittney Griner post-up is something that could go poorly. While that shouldn’t end up happening much, it’s something to take note of.

Can Rennia Davis fill multiple roles on offense?

But while Davis projects well defensively, her offense is where serious questions emerge, especially when it comes to her shooting.

Her 3-point shooting is down this year — she’s connecting on just 27.3 percent of her shots from deep, a far cry from the 37 percent mark she posted back in the 2018-19 season. But most of that is because she’s really struggled on above-the-break 3s, hitting just 19.2 percent of those attempts. She’s been better when shooting from the corner, so while you might worry about her ability to pull up from deep if you’re using her as a ball-handling 3, getting her off the ball and putting her in the corner as a stretch 4 can be a great way of maximizing her positives while getting away from the things she struggles at. A team like the Dallas Wings would be well-equipped to do just that, as they could play Davis beside Satou Sabally, who would take on more of that playmaking forward role.

I also think we have to note that Davis has been a good shooter in the past. When she was a lower-usage player in 2018-19, she was really good when it came to sinking these shots. That year, she ranked in the 95th percentile in points per possession on catch-and-shoot looks at 1.277 PPP. She also rated well when shooting off the dribble.

We’ve seen in the past that a dip in 3-point shooting as a player’s role grows isn’t some irreversible trend. Texas A&M guard Chennedy Carter saw her shooting percentages dwindle over her time in College Station, prompting plenty of concerns about her shooting in the pre-draft process. But Carter shot 37.5 percent from 3 for the Atlanta Dream as a rookie, and that came despite a sky-high usage rate. Davis settling into a role as a third or fourth option in the WNBA should take pressure off of her and help her get back to some of her earlier success from deep. There’s no guarantee that will happen and we should definitely factor her issues as a jump shooter into our evaluation of her, but I think it’s too early to say Davis is a lost cause when it comes to that part of her game.

And while 3-point shooting is a valid concern when we’re talking about wing prospects, we can’t ignore that Davis has also been a really effective scorer in the paint. Per CBB Analytics, Davis is shooting 75 percent at the rim and 53.4 percent in the non-rim part of the paint. Both of those numbers rank in the 86th percentile nationally.

Here are a couple of examples of Davis doing one of the things she does best: cutting. (Credit to Ben Dull for originally compiling clips from this game.)

Neither of these plays is difficult for Davis, as there’s not really any defensive pressure at the rim. But she’s able to make some really nice cuts to get to the basket, taking advantage of the fact that there was a clear mismatch here with Arkansas’s lack of size. That allowed Davis to explode to the hoop and kept there from being much pressure.

If Davis is going to be more of an off-ball wing in the W, she’ll need to continue finishing well at the rim on these backdoor cuts. Her size advantage won’t be so pronounced against professional bigs, but when you factor in that she’s finishing at 15.9 percentage points above average at the rim, I think we can project that she’ll be pretty good at doing that even against higher-level competition.

Overall, Davis feels like a great example of a certain kind of forward that teams really, really want. The problem is that her shooting woes mean that she isn’t a slam dunk prospect like Satou Sabally was last year. Realistically, I’d expect Davis to be drafted somewhere between No. 3 and No. 6, with a lot coming down to team needs. Atlanta at No. 3 just added some key backcourt pieces last season, so they could be a team that looks to go with a forward this year. The Wings have two top-five picks, so Davis winding up there is a distinct possibility, and that’s a place where she wouldn’t need to be a first or second scoring option.

While there are plenty of questions with Davis, one thing is clear: Davis is the top wing defender in this draft and the best pick for a team looking for a hybrid 3/4.