Cubs: Is Joc Pederson the right replacement for Kyle Schwarber?

It’s easy to pigeonhole Joc Pederson as a parallel replacement for Kyle Schwarber, but did the Cubs actually upgrade their lineup?

While they willingly parted with Kyle Schwarber, and he won that breakup, the Chicago Cubs have landed Joc Pederson as their replacement on a solid deal.

At first glance, Pederson and Schwarber invite the use of the dual Spiderman GIF. Both are left-handed hitters who hit right-handers far better and don’t add a lot of value defensively. But is there more than meets that eye?

Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago has made a case that Pederson is not just a Schwarber clone.

Here are the pertinent numbers that drive the comparison.

• Pederson career (2,517 plate appearances): .230/.336/.470, 130 home runs, 12.1 BB percentage, 24.2 K percentage
• Schwarber career (2,108 plate appearances): .230/.336/.480, 121 home runs, 13.0 BB percentage, 28.0 K percentage
• Pederson vs. LHP (385 PAs): .191/.266/.310, 9 home runs, 9.4 BB percentage, 28.8 K percentage
• Schwarber vs LHP (435 PAs): .197/.301/.348, 14 home runs, 12.0 BB percentage, 33.8 K percentage

Joc Pederson offers a bit more versatility than Schwarber

Pederson has made more starts (249) as a leadoff man than in any other lineup spot, with a .829 OPS over more than 1,000 plate appearances (1,089). His struggles against lefties will probably mandate a drop in the lineup on those days, and he has made 104 starts with a .881 OPS in the No. 8 spot. He has also been fine in the fifth (.751 OPS), sixth (.821 OPS) and seventh (.773 OPS) spots during his career.

Schwarber batted up and down the lineup for the Cubs, with only one spot where he made more than 100 starts (fourth) and two more with more than 90 starts (leadoff and fifth). Ultimately, Pederson has been more successful as a leadoff man and gives manager David Ross another (much-needed?) viable option there.

Pederson is lined up to be the Cubs’ starting left fielder, but he has also played center field a lot in his career. He’s not exactly a Gold Glover, but he has registered positive Defensive Runs Saved every season since 2015 while Schwarber has routinely posted negative DRS.

From 2015-2020, Pederson has delivered 10.6 bWAR with four seasons more than 2.0 bWAR. Schwarber, over the same span of seasons to easily keep the comparison going, has accounted for 5.4 bWAR with one season north of 2.0 and another that was 1.8.

The Cubs aren’t necessarily getting twice the player by swapping Schwarber for Pederson. But they are getting a better player, if you mine some margins that can make a difference.