NCAA Tournament bubble watch: UNC safe, Penn State in danger in latest bracketology

Stanford is rising while Drake is slipping in this week’s bubble watch.

There are few places in the world that are more stressful in mid-February than the NCAA Tournament bubble. Being right on the cut line this week is an invitation for a trying month where wins can mean everything and losses can be completely devastating.

Let’s dive into the latest bubble watch and look at the 16 teams closest to the cut line, beginning with the last four teams to avoid the First Four games.

Bubble Watch – Last Four Byes

North Carolina, LSU, Boise State, Stanford

The Tar Heels are on a temporary pause after two of their players broke COVID protocols following a win over Duke that didn’t really do much for the team’s resume. North Carolina really needs to pick up quality wins over teams like Virginia, Virginia Tech or Florida State to add to a resume without much substance.

LSU lost a chance to pick up a quality win last weekend when their game with the Gators was postponed due to COVID issues within Florida’s program but a loss to Alabama won’t hurt them too much. Carnage around them on the bubble allowed the Tigers to gain some ground ahead of this week’s games with Mississippi State and a critical home shot at Tennessee.

A new entrant to this list is Boise State, which got swept by Nevada to fall out of first place in the Mountain West. The Broncos have a good win over BYU in non-conference play but can’t afford to blow too many more league games to stay on the right side of the bubble.

It feels like Stanford will be a perpetual entrant on this list and they bounced back from a loss to USC by sweeping a pair from Cal over the weekend. A win over Colorado on Thursday would be a good victory to help move the Cardinal up the seed line.

Bubble Watch – Last Four In

Drake, UConn, Oregon, Colorado State

A perfect start to the season ended over the weekend for Drake, which lost to a 7-12 Valpo team by 17 points. There are no good wins on the Bulldogs’ schedule and they need to at least split this weekend’s huge series with Loyola-Chicago to stay on the right side of the bubble.

UConn had a bad week, losing a chance to play Villanova after taking the floor with a ref that had COVID-19 before losing to fellow bubbler Seton Hall over the weekend. This week has a pair of games that the Huskies really need to get on a trip to Providence and Xavier.

The good news for Oregon is that they finally played this week, but the bad news is that they split a pair of games with the Washington schools to hurt their resume. Sweeping the Arizona schools in a road trip this week is a necessity for the Ducks, who need wins at this point.

The last team in is currently Colorado State, which passes the eye test out of the rugged Mountain West and took care of business against Wyoming last week. The problem is that their remaining schedule offers no quality win opportunities with plenty of chances for devastating losses, making the rest of the regular season a minefield for the Rams to walk through.

Bubble Watch – First Four Out

Saint Louis, VCU, St. John’s, Penn State

The A-10 has two teams in the first four out as Saint Louis and VCU come up just short. The Billikens are a tournament-caliber team but simply need to pick up more good wins like Saturday’s victory over St. Bonaventure to make up for a lengthy COVID pause while the Rams need to find a way to top the Bonnies this week to get back on the right side of the cut line.

The newest team in this part of the bubble watch is St. John’s, which has surged into the mix thanks to a six-game winning streak highlighted by an upset of Villanova last Wednesday. The Red Storm play once this week, taking on Butler in a road game they should really find a way to get.

Penn State is the first Big Ten team out of the field after a loss at Wisconsin combined with a win over Maryland basically kept them in a holding pattern. Dates with Michigan State and Nebraska this week are games that the Nittany Lions have to win in order to avoid picking up some bad losses for their shaky resume.

Bubble Watch – Next Four Out

Richmond, Maryland, Western Kentucky, Syracuse

A lengthy COVID pause has really hurt Richmond, which is losing opportunities to improve their resume while getting passed by teams taking the court. The Spiders are off this whole week and expected to return to action on Feb. 17.

Maryland took a big step backward this week by dropping a pair of games to Penn State and Ohio State. A date against Minnesota on Sunday is a must-win for the Terrapins, who can’t afford a tenth Big Ten loss at this point.

Western Kentucky has an outside chance to be the second team out of Conference USA but the Hilltoppers can’t afford to slip up often in a league with few quality win opportunities outside of UAB. This week offers up a home series with Rice, which is .500 in league play and 12-8 overall.

The last team clinging to the page is Syracuse, which missed a chance to play Louisville after the Cardinals went on a COVID pause and got drilled by Clemson on Saturday. The Orange have to sweep this week against NC State and Boston College to avoid falling off the bubble watch entirely.

For more NCAA basketball news, analysis, opinion and features, check out more from the FanSided college basketball section to stay on top of the latest action.