Atlanta Braves fans are livid over PECOTA’s win projections

Atlanta Braves fans were not too fond of the team’s PECOTA win projections for the 2021 season.

A few months ago, the Atlanta Braves were one win away from reaching the World Series, but could not hold back the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. This offseason, the Braves added Charlie Morton to their starting rotation and re-signed Marcell Ozuna to a four-year, $65 million contract. But will it be enough for the Braves to win the NL East title for the fourth consecutive season? Not according to PECOTA.

Prior to the start of every campaign, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections are released. In this, the site projects the stats of players on every team and simulates the entire season. PECOTA projections are an annual debate that takes place, where the most vocal are fans of teams that underperform in the simulations.

For Braves fans, they had to be livid to see that they are projected to finish in fourth-place in the NL East (82.4-79.6).

Quite the projected drop-off for the Braves

In PECOTA’s projections, the New York Mets are viewed as the favorites to win the division (95 wins). While that’s respectable, given New York’s active offseason that saw them land star shortstop Francisco Lindor and catcher James McCann, the Braves did not even finish in second. Ahead of the Braves are the Washington Nationals (85 wins) and the Philadelphia Phillies (83 wins). That is a huge 10-game gap between the Mets and the rest of the pack.

As mentioned earlier, the Braves were so close to reaching the World Series for the first-time since 1999, as they held a 3-1 series lead over the Dodgers. Yet, Los Angeles’ bats were just too much for Atlanta’s pitching rotation.

Even with the disappointing conclusion to the season, the Braves’ roster is still stacked entering the 2021 season. The team has one of the better batting orders in the league and a promising starting rotation that will see the return of Mike Soroka and the additions of Morton and Drew Smyly.

As is the case every year, fans will look back on PECOTA’s projections at the conclusion of the regular-season and roast them if they are wrong. But seriously, a fourth-place for the Braves? That is a bit absurd.