Chicago Cubs PECOTA projections are more generous than fans would think
The Cubs are still projected to fight for the National League Central pennant in 2021.
2021 is easily one of the most important seasons in Chicago Cubs franchise history. It is the year where they either decide to keep core talent from the 2016 squad or instead opt for a rebuild.
The early reports point to the team at least looking to extend both Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez. Kris Bryant’s fate remains up in the air.
All the questions surrounding the roster could easily lead to a bad season. However, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have the Cubs finishing 85-77 and in a fight for the National League Central crown.
Cubs projected to have a competitive season
PECOTA has the Cubs finishing four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers with the real surprise being Chicago coming in four games up on the St. Louis Cardinals. So much for Nolan Arenado leading the Cardinals to glory.
Of course, these are projections and will change if or when blockbuster moves are made. But retaining the likes of Rizzo and Baez should only boost the projected win total. Bryant’s status has been the same all offseason and should not have affected the projection too much.
The club won the Central in the shortened 2020 season with a 34-26 record. Before that, they struggled to an 84-78 record in 2019 that ended a run of four consecutive postseason appearances.
Yu Darvish, Jon Lester and Kyle Schwarber are all out while Joc Pederson is now with the Cubs. That net outcome isn’t ideal, but keeping the core in place is going to avoid a major decline.
Optimistic Cubs fans have to be excited about this projection. It validates their faith that the team isn’t on a path toward consistent losing, which sums up most of the franchise’s history.
Next. Here’s how PECOTA projects the 2021 MLB standings. dark
The attention now turns toward seeing what the front office decides with the likes of Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant. Trading Bryant as soon as possible maximizes his value if there is no intention of extending him beyond 2021. While fans may just want one more run, MLB front offices usually don’t think like that and rarely let a player walk for nothing.