Is Trevor Lawrence the best quarterback prospect since Luck? Manning? Elway? Ever?

Is Trevor Lawrence the best quarterback prospect ever?

Generational prospect. Freak athlete. Those were terms that quarterback Trevor Lawrence has heard about himself since his days at Cartersville High School. Lawrence has carried the weight of being the next game-changing quarterback since winning two consecutive state titles and 41 straight games in high school.

Lawrence was the top-rated high school prospect in the country in 2018 and took the college football world as the first freshman to lead his team to a national championship since Jamelle Holloway of Oklahoma in 1985. The Tigers did not lose a game until the National Championship Game last season. Lawrence would lead Clemson to the College Football Playoff three consecutive seasons.

The statistics do not tell the entire story. Sure, Lawrence threw for over 10,000 yards and 90 touchdowns in three seasons at Clemson, but the evolution of his game is what’s most impressive. As a freshman, Lawrence was a statuesque pocket passer with a cannon arm and elongated delivery. The extended delivery was typical for any quarterback his height.

In three years, Lawrence shortened his delivery and became a legitimate threat in the run game. As a junior, Lawrence ran for over 500 yards and nine touchdowns. No run more iconic than the touchdown run against Ohio State to clinch a place in the National Title game. This improvement, his physical gifts and the leadership factor make the Cartersville native the preemptive number one pick in this year’s draft.

Lawrence lived up to the billing elevating the Tigers to one of the elite programs in the country. Now, Lawrence is off to the NFL and is the prohibitive favorite to be the number one overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Though drafting is a 50/50 venture (even more so with quarterbacks), Lawrence is seen as close to “can’t miss”  by scouts and pundits alike. Exactly how can’t miss is Lawrence?

There have been three quarterbacks with the “can’t miss” label; John Elway, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Let’s examine how Lawrence stacks up with these three former number one picks.

Lawrence has no peers in the 2021 NFL Draft

All four quarterbacks were tethered to another quarterback prospect in their respective drafts. Elway was linked to Dan Marino in the 1983 draft, Manning was linked to Ryan Leaf in the 1998 draft and Luck was linked to Robert Griffin III in the 2012 draft. In this season’s draft, Lawrence will be linked to Justin Fields. Unlike the other three, Lawrence and Fields are linked because their teams met in the playoffs the last two years with the two splitting the contests.

Marino’s slide in the draft is legendary, but both were the favorites to be the first pick in the draft going into the 1983 draft. Marino did not have a great senior season, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Griffin won the 2012 Heisman Trophy behind his athleticism and a big right arm that saw him shoot up draft boards. Both Manning and Leaf had record-setting seasons at their respective schools leading the programs to New Year’s Day bowls.

Much like Luck and Elway, Lawrence was the top quarterback going into their final seasons. Still, the quarterbacks they’d be tied to had a case to be the first pick in the draft, much like Lawrence’s rival, Fields. Though Fields has had issues with injuries and inconsistent play, the ceiling for Kennesaw, Georgia native, is very high.

How Lawrence compares to Elway

Both Lawrence and Elway were the top recruits in the country coming out of high school. Lawrence received every major accolade a high school player could receive. Along with being the 247Sports top-ranked overall recruit, Lawrence was the USA Today National Player of the Year and 247Sports Composite Player of the Year. Lawrence got offers from virtually every major school in the country. That’s in addition to the 40-plus game-winning streak and two state titles to end his career.

Though recruiting was much different in 1979 than it is now, Elway was the most recruited player coming out of high school in the country, receiving over 60 scholarship offers. John Elway, Sr. moved the family to suburban Los Angeles so John, Jr. could play at Grenada Hills High School. The elder Elway’s gambit paid off. Elway threw for over 5,700 yards and 49 touchdowns in his high school career.

Though Elway did not have a spectacular college career from a record perspective, he graduated from Stanford with nearly every passing and total offense record in both the Pac-10 and Stanford. Elway led the nation in touchdown passes as a senior would also win conference player of the year twice (1980 and 1983).

Lawrence does not leave Clemson with as many records as Elway left Stanford, but Elway cannot claim the field accomplishments that Lawrence can claim. Clemson played in the College Football Playoff all three years. Lawrence was the starting quarterback, playing for two national titles, winning one. Lawrence was ACC layer of the Year in 2020 and Freshman of the Year in 2018.

Both as pro prospects

Lawrence and Elway are similar in many ways as professional prospects.  Scouts raved about their generational athleticism. Few quarterbacks had the physical tools Elway had in 1983 coming out of Stanford. Both men had unbelievable traits coming out of college. Lawrence and Elway have generational arm talent coming out of school into the NFL Draft.

Lawrence has a slight edge over Elway as a plug-and-play starter simply because Lawrence plays in an era where the professional game uses many philosophies used by the college game. When Elway played, quarterbacks had to adjust and learn the pro game, as evidenced by Elway’s struggles those first two seasons.

How Lawrence compares to Peyton Manning

Manning was a top recruit just like Lawrence coming out of high school. As a senior, Manning the Gatorade Player of the Year and the Columbus Touchdown Club Player of the Year. Manning receives nearly 60 offers en route to being the top player in the country in 1993.

Like Lawrence, Manning would elevate Tennessee from a middling SEC program to a national title contender. When the Volunteers won the SEC Championship in 1997, it was their first conference title in seven years. Manning would leave Tennessee their all-time leading passer and one of the all-time leading passers in conference history.

Both as pro prospects

Physically, there is no comparison between the two. Lawrence’s physical traits are far better than Manning’s. The Clemson standout is a better runner with superior arm strength. Manning had a tendency to throw interceptions in college as well. Peyton threw 23 interceptions his last two years at Tennessee while Lawrence had 17 interceptions his entire career. Lawrence and Manning each have the intangible leadership qualities that make their teammates want to follow them.

The expectation was for Manning and Washington State quarterback Leaf to be linked together for their entire career; Leaf did not pan out. Many scouts felt Leaf had better physical traits than Manning and it was fairly close between the two. The same could be said of Lawrence and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. The difference is both Lawrence and Fields possess generational physical traits and Lawrence has pulled away from Fields.

As far as Manning, Lawrence has the advantage because of the physical tools. Manning did not have the mobility or arm talent Lawrence does coming out of college. Also, Lawrence does not have issues with interceptions.

How Lawrence compares to Andrew Luck

Luck was the least touted of the quarterbacks as a recruit. Evaluated much like Lawrence, Luck was the number three rated pro-style quarterback and 42nd highest-rated recruit by 247sports in 2008. Luck threw for 7,139 yards and 53 touchdowns while at Strafford High School in Texas. While at Stanford, Luck developed into one of the best pro prospects since Elway. Luck would draw comparisons to both Elway and Peyton Manning with the “can’t miss” label attached to him.

While at Stanford, Luck would throw for 9,430 yards and 82 touchdowns while at Stanford, winning Pac-12 Offensive Player of the year twice, something only done by Elway. Luck broke school records for career touchdown passes and total offense held by Elway and Steve Stenstrom respectively.

Both as pro prospects

Despite not having the high school accolades Lawrence had before college, Luck was every bit the prospect Lawrence is. Luck had every trait coming out of Stanford that Lawrence has coming out of Clemson. Both Luck and Lawrence have generational arm talent and are mobile. In fact, Lawrence was the fourth fastest quarterback in the 2012 combine. If Luck was can’t miss coming out of Stanford then Lawrence is the closest.

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