Trade markets for Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold in bizarre NFL offseason
The Philadelphia Eagles have been trying to trade Carson Wentz since before the Super Bowl, but they’ve failed. We dig into what the problem is.
The Deshaun Watson saga continues in Houston, as all eyes across the league are trained on where the 25-year-old franchise quarterback will be throwing passes in 2021.
But, the market for a pair of consolation prizes for teams in the market for an upgrade at the most important position in sports deserves monitoring.
There is only one Watson, but in the aftermath of the Detroit Lions-Los Angeles Rams swap of Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold could be the next quarterback dominoes to fall … Even if they don’t tip anytime soon.
It seems the longer Carson Wentz remains a Philadelphia Eagle, the more leverage general manager Howie Roseman loses. As multiple reports have surfaced that the Eagles have yet to receive a proposal that includes a first-round pick, despite asking for two in return for the maligned 28-year-old quarterback, that doesn’t mean a deal won’t happen. Just that a trade might not be imminent.
“The one thing you know for sure,” an NFC personnel executive tells FanSided. “Is Carson Wentz is not going to be in Philly. If Philly’s not getting what they want now, they’re fine waiting. They’re the ones with the commodity that people want.”
Some league sources believe this saga could play out well past the NFL Draft when teams who miss out on their top quarterback target might eye Wentz as a fallback option in late spring, and the Eagles might stand a better chance to have their asking price met at that time than they do today.
“If I’m Howie Roseman, if they won’t want to give me what I want, if they’re low-balling me, we’ll pay [Wentz’s] bonus,” the executive says. “We’ll keep him for now. Then, we’ll get that money back some way or somehow.
“But, someone is going to want Wentz. If this drags past free agency, past the draft, some team is going to look around and say ‘Oh Shit, everybody in our division got better but us, and we need a quarterback … give them whatever draft picks they want.'”
For teams unable to win the Watson Sweepstakes, and unwilling to meet the Eagles’ lofty demands, Darnold might just change their fortunes this offseason.
“I evaluated Sam when he came out and I was a fan, but not a big fan of his,” a former general manager and veteran talent evaluator tells FanSided, on the condition of anonymity to speak freely on Darnold. “If he were in this year’s class … There’s talent there. You hope his best football is two or three years out, you like his physical toughness, you like that he’s been through adversity, but he’s in no way a finished product.
“I’d slide Darnold behind Trevor Lawrence, behind Zach Wilson, because Wilson is a unique guy, he reminds me of Patrick Mahomes with his throwing angles, his ability to make plays, and he’s very unique. There’s a pretty big drop off between Wilson and Justin Fields, but Sam Darnold would be just in front of Fields in this year’s class.”
Darnold is entering the final year of his rookie contract, which also carries a fifth-year option a team can choose to exercise for 2022. Any team that trades for Darnold would carry $4.77 million on their salary cap in 2021, which would be the third-lowest cap hit of any starting quarterback in the league.
Opinions on Darnold, though, seem split throughout the league.
“Sam Darnold has far more upside than Carson Wentz,” an AFC scouting director, not in the market for a quarterback tells FanSided. “He also has less money on his contract. Plus, Wentz’s injury history is a major concern, and in that regard, Darnold has far less risk involved.”
While Darnold missed three games in 2019 after being diagnosed with Mononucleosis, Wentz suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 13 of the 2017 season, missed the final five games in 2018 due to a back injury, and suffered a severe concussion in the Eagles’ 2019 NFC Wild Card loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Wentz is a career 62.7 percent passer with 113 touchdowns and 50 interceptions and a .500 record in games he’s started. Meanwhile, Darnold has yet to win more than seven games in a single season and is coming off a 2-10 campaign.
Any team interested in trading for Darnold must decide if they believe they can fix his nagging propensity for turning the ball over, which has dogged him since his time at USC (39 career interceptions and 11 fumbles in 38 games) and weigh how much of the No. 3 overall pick in 2018’s inconsistency is attributed to poor coaching from the Jets and ousted head coach Adam Gase.
“Some team might look at Sam as a ‘buy low’ option and think they can fix him,” an NFC coach tells FanSided. “But the reality is, Sam played very poorly last year. We haven’t evaluated the rookies completely yet, but I’d be inclined to look to the draft rather than to trade for Darnold.”
Meanwhile, Wentz’s contract is as big an albatross as the questions surrounding his temperament, competitiveness, and injury history after missing eight games due to injury since 2017 and being benched in Week 15 in favor of second-round rookie Jalen Hurts.
Wentz is due over $40 million in fully-guaranteed money over the remaining four years of his contract and a trade would cost the already cap-strapped Eagles $33.8 million in dead money. Still, there is a chance the Eagles will need to include another asset — a draft pick or a player, such as tight end Zach Ertz — to net anywhere close to the two first-round picks Roseman is seeking.
What would stop the Bears or Colts, the purported front-runners to pry Wentz away from the Eagles, from instead trading a second-round pick for Darnold?
Such a move would save upwards of $35 million in cap space to be big players in the markets of marquee wide receivers such as Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin in free agency, or linebackers Shaq Barrett or Lavonte David for that matter, to set Darnold up for immediate success?
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, so too are the evaluations of Wentz and Darnold who offer vastly different ceilings for vastly different contract obligations and trade capital.
“If you want a young guy that hasn’t proven it and hasn’t had the talent around him,” the NFC evaluator says. “Darnold is your guy. But, if you’re looking for a proven commodity that hasn’t proven it the last two years, then go and get Wentz.”
An offseason unlike any other
With the NFL’s COVID season in the rearview mirror (we hope), the page now turns to an offseason that promises to be unlike any that came before.
Typically, all 32 NFL teams would be preparing to board flights to Indianapolis next week, complete front office, coaching, and scouting staffs in tow to scout and meet with the top NFL Draft prospects during the annual scouting combine.
Even more importantly, though, are the conversations at Prime 47 Steakhouse, the J.W. Marriott sports bar and in hidden alcoves of the Indianapolis convention center between teams and the representatives of the top impending free agents where the parameters of contracts are hammered out.
It wouldn’t be a strange sight to walk past agents on downtown crosswalks, blue tooth in ear, negotiating APY or signing bonus structures less than three weeks before the league year officially begins and when the NFL legally permits teams to tamper.
None of that will happen this year, because the scouting combine isn’t taking place this year.
But, that’s not the only reason this offseason will be unprecedented.
“Everything is on hold,” one league source tells FanSided. “Until we get the salary cap number locked down.”
Thanks to the economic impact of COVID-19 on the loss of gate revenue, the price of daily testing for every league employee and added travel costs necessitated by social distancing, the salary cap has yet to be determined and could drop to as low as somewhere in the $175-$180 million range.
The difference between a salary cap in the range this year’s is expected to fall, and a normal year’s incremental increase based on prior year’s revenue is immense. Had 2020 not been so disrupted by the global pandemic, one source believes the cap could have come in at approximately $202 million, a nearly $4 million increase from 2020’s $198.2 million salary cap.
This year’s uncertainty combined with tighter restrictions presents unprecedented challenges for the 16 teams that find themselves with less than $10 million in cap space under the current projection.
“There’s a general idea of where the cap will settle for this year, but that doesn’t mean this hasn’t been a real challenge,” a current general manager tells FanSided. “The biggest hurdle being trying to determine how flooded the market will be and at which positions as teams start to set their priorities with the cap drop.”
The GM and multiple executives agree there is a lot of waiting around for the league and NFLPA to come to terms on a cap number that has essentially triggered a pause on the usual backroom deal-making that typically leads up to free agency beginning.
“We would usually be knee-deep in negotiations by now,” one agent tells FanSided. “But, this time around, the only conversations that we’ve had with our bigger-named clients is setting up Zoom meetings with teams in the days prior to the new league-year beginning”
One life preserver for teams and agents alike this offseason could be the NFL agreeing to a new decade-long television rights deal, which NBC Sports’ Peter King reported this week could be done “within the next month.”
If the NFL is flush with upwards of $100 billion or more over the next decade in revenue from broadcast partners buttressed by a possible streaming deal inked with Amazon or Apple, perhaps the league staves off this offseason’s cap crises by raising the cap somewhere closer to normal levels.
Front offices across the league are in a holding pattern, under immense pressure over determining whether they must start trimming their roster of high-priced players or make a mad dash to restructure contracts to maneuver guaranteed money into future years. A new television deal would release much of the pressure teams are facing.
“You can always increase your spending as a team,” a former GM tells FanSided. “That’s easy. It’s when you have to decrease payroll where you really get screwed. That’s where the teams that have drafted well will really start kicking ass the next couple years, because those guys are still on rookie contracts. That’s when a Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow really proves their value to teams.”
Regardless of where the cap ultimately settles, it seems apparent that next month will be a sprint to get superstars top-tier contracts, while so called “second-tier” players might be face entirely new challenges.
Some players who would typically sign in free agency’s second wave might be more inclined to settle for one-year “prove-it” deals, incentive-laden contracts, or pacts with minimal money earmarked for 2021 but back-loaded with guaranteed money as all sides agree significant cap rises could be on the horizon for the next several years.
But, until this situations reaches some sort of conclusion, the league waits.
“They have to get the cap out,” the former GM says. “Because it’s going to be ugly.”
Free agent spotlight
Jordan Evans has the chance to really bolster a team’s linebacker corps this offseason.
Evans, 26, is set to become an unrestricted free agent next month after proving to be a special teams standout and a player worthy of quality snaps on defense for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Last season, Evans appeared in 75.3 percent of the Bengals’ special teams snaps, 62 snaps on defense, and produced 11 tackles and two sacks while holding opposing quarterbacks to a 77.1 passer rating when targeting him.
Based on his production and tape, Evans could be a hot commodity in free agency’s second wave.
Quotable
"“He probably won’t remember this, but I worked him out when I was with the Patriots. He pushed me around for two hours.”"
– Tennessee Titans GM Jon Robinson on the possibility of signing J.J. Watt
The Titans signing Watt would be the ultimate shot across the AFC South bow, pilfering the face of the Houston Texans franchise — who remains a productive player — and offering the future Hall of Famer to exact revenge on the organization twice a year.
Watt finished last season with 45 total pressures and five sacks while producing an 85.5 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. Clearly not the same player that he was even three seasons ago, but still potentially dominant, nevertheless.
Adding Watt to the Titans’ defensive end rotation would be a major boost, but moving him inside to nose tackle could potentially create significantly disruptive a-gap pressure and plug in a high-end run-stopper (Watt had an 81 run-stopping grade in 2020) for a defense that allowed 236 rushing yards in a playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
There will be a strong market for Watt, who is understandably eyeing situations where he can compete for a Super Bowl at age 32, but the Titans just might be a Hollywood script worthy landing spot in a division that is there for the taking.
Final thought
If the past month has taught me anything, it is that miracles do happen.
Thanks to the wonders of modern medicine, and the power of prayer, five-year-old Ariel Young awoke from a coma Tuesday. Ariel’s mother’s car was allegedly struck by a pickup truck driven by Britt Reid 11 days earlier.
Young suffered severe brain injuries, after Reid admitted to have been drinking and taking prescription Adderall prior to the accident.
While Young’s aunt had initially launched a GoFundMe page to raise money to pay for her medical expenses and keep Ariel’s mother, Felicia Miller, afloat as she kept bedside vigil, the Chiefs last week offered the family resources and allowed Reid’s contract to expire.
“Our focus remains on Ariel Young and her family,” The Chiefs said last week in a statement. “We have reached out to the family to offer our support and resources to them during this difficult time, and we will continue to pray for her recovery.”
Both were the right moves. Even if because offering to pay medical expenses cannot be admissible in any civil proceedings, a strong argument can be made that the extending of goodwill to Young’s family and distancing from Reid should have happened before the Chiefs even boarded a flight to Tampa Bay for last weekend’s Super Bowl.
Reid, who missed Super Bowl LV as he underwent surgery for his injuries suffered in the accident, is no longer a member of the Chiefs organization. The hope here is he’s prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, if found to have been culpable.
To watch the Kansas City community and well-wishers across the country raise over $505,600 as of Tuesday evening is inspiring. Ariel has a long fight ahead of her, but to see her take such a monumental step, awakening from her coma, is reason for joy and hope.
Closer to home, 14 days after my father suffered a stroke that left him temporarily paralyzed on the left side of his body, he walked out of Lehigh Valley Hospital on Sunday. His doctors and therapists anticipate him making a full and complete recovery.
Both five-year-old Ariel Young’s plight and that of my 57-year-old father once again show that our front-line healthcare workers, nurses, and doctors are the true definition of heroes. Likewise, the power of prayer and positive thinking can make a tangible impact on a patient’s recovery.
May they both go on to live long, fulfilling, and healthy lives.
Matt Lombardo is the site expert for GMenHQ, and writes Between The Hash Marks each Wednesday for FanSided. Follow Matt on Twitter: @MattLombardoNFL.