Bracketology winners and losers: Illinois clinches top seed; FSU, Villanova vulnerable
Illinois basketball clinches a No. 1 seed while Florida State and Villanova are big losers in this week’s NCAA Tournament bracketology update.
Championship Week is here and there is surprisingly little drama to be had on the top line of projected March Madness brackets. Illinois put together a tremendous final week of the regular season, topping both Michigan and Ohio State on the road to all but lock up the final No. 1 seed on the board in advance of Selection Sunday.
There could still be plenty of jockeying for positioning in the remainder of the Top 16, which has shuffled a bit after some upsets in the final week of the regular season. Let’s begin this week’s bracketology report with another look at the top line.
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Bracketology – No. 1 seeds
Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois
Last week was a quiet one for Gonzaga, which got a bye all the way to the WCC semifinals after wrapping an undefeated regular season. The Bulldogs are back in action tonight against Saint Mary’s and are two wins away from carrying a perfect record into the NCAA Tournament, although a loss wouldn’t keep them from the top overall seed.
Concerns about Baylor’s demise were greatly exaggerated after the Bears put together an emphatic 3-0 week with a gritty road win at West Virginia along with home victories against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.
A pair of losses have dropped Michigan back behind Baylor on the S-curve but they have done enough in the regular season to remain on the top line even if they don’t win the Big Ten Tournament. The bigger concern for the Wolverines is the health of starting guard Eli Brooks, who left Sunday’s loss to Michigan State with an ankle injury that left him in a walking boot.
Illinois is firmly on the top line now and leads the NCAA with nine Quadrant 1 victories, a total they can still add to at the Big Ten Tournament this week. There is a greater chance that the Illini pass Michigan for the third overall seed than of them falling off the top line by Selection Sunday.
Bracketology – No. 2 seeds
Alabama, Houston, Ohio State, Iowa
The Crimson Tide are the top team on this line but they have looked a bit off going down the stretch. Barring a disaster at the SEC Tournament it looks like Alabama should remain a No. 2 seed heading into Selection Sunday.
Tramon Mark’s dramatic buzzer-beating three probably sunk Memphis’ late at-large dreams but was key to helping Houston finish the regular season strong. The Cougars have some tricky matchups ahead in the AAC Tournament, including a potential rematch with the Tigers in the semifinals, but winning in Fort Worth could see them end up as high as the fifth overall seed in the field.
Ohio State is clearly trending in the wrong direction but it is hard to blame the Buckeyes for dropping three games to teams on the top two seed lines along with another to red-hot Michigan State. The issue is that those four losses have seen Ohio State slide down the seed list and an early exit in Indianapolis could lead the Buckeyes in jeopardy of falling to the three line.
The Hawkeyes are nipping at the Buckeyes’ heels after finishing the regular season with two more wins. The bracket in the Big Ten Tournament could be a challenge for Iowa, however, with a rematch of the regular-season finale with Wisconsin looming in the quarterfinals ahead of a potential semifinal matchup against Illinois.
Bracketology – No. 3 seeds
Arkansas, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State
The late-season rise continues for the Razorbacks, who have ripped off 11 straight SEC wins to finish in second place in the conference. The SEC Tournament bracket is also favorable to Arkansas, which has only slumping Missouri and LSU as potential tournament teams on its half of the draw ahead of a potential matchup with Alabama in the final.
West Virginia had a pair of tough losses this week but that is the price of doing business in the Big 12. Neither defeat should sink the Mountaineers in the long haul, who get a rematch with Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament with the winner set for another shot at Baylor.
One of the big risers in the final week of the regular season was Texas, which went 3-0 to build some positive momentum headed into the Big 12 Tournament. The Longhorns had a tough draw in the quarterfinal with Texas Tech, which swept the regular-season series, so finding a way to win the third meeting would be a help.
Oklahoma State’s late-season surge has continued to push them up the bracket, with Saturday’s win over West Virginia without Cade Cunningham an impressive result to back up the sweep of Bedlam. The Cowboys will look to beat the Mountaineers again in the quarterfinals before getting another crack at Baylor in the semifinals.
Bracketology – No. 4 seeds
Kansas, Villanova, Purdue, Virginia
The Jayhawks played with fire by scheduling a non-conference game against UTEP that they had to fight tooth and nail to win, leaving them on the four-line headed into the Big 12 Tournament. The good news for Kansas is that they are the No. 2 seed in Kansas City, meaning a likely quarterfinal draw against slumping Oklahoma before facing the winner of the Texas-Texas Tech game, with a win there guaranteeing a bump to the three-line by Selection Sunday.
Villanova clinched the Big East regular-season crown with a win over Creighton but lost star guard Collin Gillespie in the process to a season-ending knee injury. A loss to Butler without him raised concerns about what the Wildcats will look like without Gillespie and there is a good shot Jay Wright’s team could be an upset victim in New York this week.
The Boilermakers are the Big Ten team no one talks about and put together another good 2-0 week, topping Wisconsin by four before dealing a crushing blow to Indiana’s NCAA Tournament hopes. A No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament means that Purdue has a really tough draw in Indianapolis with a potential Ohio State-Michigan-Illinois path to the title.
The last spot here goes to Virginia by default after they won the ACC’s regular-season title thanks in part to Florida State getting upset by Notre Dame. The Cavaliers have a manageable path to the final with the winner of the Syracuse-NC State game coming in the quarterfinals and either Georgia Tech or Clemson in the semis, so anything less than an appearance in the title game on Saturday night would be a disappointment that could push them down to a No. 5 seed.
Next. 20 biggest upsets in the history of March Madness. dark
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