NCAA Tournament bubble watch: Michigan State sneaks in, Duke’s bubble bursts
Michigan State basketball will likely keep their NCAA Tournament streak alive but Duke basketball is in need of a miracle to make March Madness.
Championship Week has arrived and it is the most frantic time of the year for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The conference tournaments offer one last chance for teams in need of a resume boost to pick up quality wins while also scaring the living daylights out of them with the possibility that a bid thief could emerge to steal their ticket to March Madness.
This week also sees us bid a fond farewell from the Bubble Watch page to Duke, which dropped its final three regular-season games to fall to 11-11, leaving only the ACC Tournament’s automatic bid as a way to make the NCAA Tournament for a 25th straight time.
Let’s take a look at who is on the bubble by breaking down the 16 teams closest to the bubble, beginning with the last four teams who will avoid playing in the First Four.
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Bubble Watch – Last 4 byes
Maryland, Michigan State, Georgia Tech, VCU
The Terrapins were in great shape to end up in an 8-9 game before a bad last week to the season saw Maryland lose to Northwestern and Penn State, which completed a season sweep of the Terrapins by winning by five on Sunday night. The losses knocked Maryland into the 8-9 game of the Big Ten Tournament against red-hot Michigan State, who the Terrapins did beat handily on Feb. 28, but a loss here could mean a drop into the First Four on Selection Sunday.
The biggest winners of the week were the Spartans, who toppled Michigan to score their third top-five win of the season, a key separator for their resume when no one else in the country has more than one. Drawing Maryland in the 8-9 game is a good scenario for the Spartans, who should be in regardless of how they play but a win in that game likely gets them out of First Four territory for good.
Georgia Tech followed up its big win over Duke by taking care of business against Wake Forest, helping the Yellow Jackets earn a critical double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Assuming seeds hold and Clemson earns the spot opposite Georgia Tech in the quarterfinals, Josh Pastner’s crew should breathe easy since the opportunity to add another quality win would present itself instead of merely avoiding a bad loss like their pair of Quadrant 3 defeats to Mercer and Georgia State.
The last team in this tier is VCU, which is off for a week as they await their A-10 final appearance against St. Bonaventure. The bubble will take shape around the Rams as the week unfolds and they should be safe regardless but at this point, it would be better to just take the guesswork out of the equation and win the automatic bid on Sunday.
Bubble Watch – Last 4 in
Colorado State, Drake, Xavier, Boise State
The Mountain West’s second-best team, the Rams were asked to play four games in seven days and went 3-1, with the lone defeat being a three-point loss to a quality Nevada team that is better than its record would indicate. Colorado State is the No. 3 seed in the Mountain West Conference Tournament and should be able to lock up a bid by getting to the final.
Drake did everything they could to stay on the bubble by getting to the MVC final, where they lost to a very good Loyola-Chicago team. A 24-4 record should be enough to get the Bulldogs in with a weak bubble, especially when they can point to the fact that star guard Tank Hemphill should be back for the NCAA Tournament, but it will be a long week of sitting on the sidelines while other teams get to make their case to dance.
A non-conference win over Oklahoma along with a key victory over Creighton is keeping Xavier in the field for now but finishing the season with five losses in seven games is not ideal, especially when three come against teams that aren’t projected to make the field. The Musketeers are stuck in the 7-10 game in the Big East Tournament, where they have to avoid a landmine loss against Butler before getting a third shot at Creighton.
The last team in the field right now is Boise State, which suffered a brutal Quadrant 4 loss to Fresno State at home to end the regular season. The defeat dropped the Broncos to the No. 4 seed in the Mountain West Tournament, where they have to tangle with a dangerous Nevada team to earn the right to face San Diego State in the semifinals.
Bubble Watch – First 4 out
Saint Louis, Utah State, Seton Hall, Memphis
The Billikens saw their A-10 tournament run come to an end with an 18-point loss to St. Bonaventure, a defeat that could leave them on the outside looking in, which would be a disappointment for a talented team that was hurt severely by COVID pauses. Saint Louis would be well-advised to try and find an impromptu non-conference game this week to try and add another good win to their resume.
Utah State is the Mountain West’s fourth team on the bubble and has an elite player in Neemas Queta but has no quality wins outside of the conference, although a sweep of San Diego State is helpful. As the second seed in the conference tournament, the Aggies need to find a way to get past Colorado State and earn a trip to the finals to improve their at-large positioning.
The biggest faller over the past few weeks is Seton Hall, which is now out of the field thanks to a brutal four-game losing streak. The Pirates are now staring at a must-win game against St. John’s in the Big East Tournament which could knock them out for good if they lose it.
Memphis was so close to stealing a win in Houston on Sunday before Tramon Mark’s buzzer-beating three drove a dagger into their at-large push. The good news is the Tigers could get another shot at the Cougars in the AAC semis, a game they have to win to have a shot at ending up on the right side of the bubble.
Bubble Watch – Next 4 out
Syracuse, St. John’s, SMU, Belmont
The Orange did a good job to finish the season by beating North Carolina and completing a sweep of Clemson, giving them some room to make a push in the ACC Tournament. Beating NC State in the 8-9 game is a must as well as finding a way to take out Virginia in the quarterfinals, which could be enough to separate Syracuse in a weak bubble crop.
St. John’s also sneaks back onto the page after a big win over Seton Hall on Saturday to wrap the regular season. There are some bad losses on the Red Storm’s resume but a win over the Pirates in the Big East Tournament would give St. John’s a third shot at Villanova, which could be vulnerable after losing star guard Collin Gillespie for the season, and open a path to the finals as a potential bid thief.
SMU has good metrics and few good wins, something that wasn’t helped by an extended COVID pause. The Mustangs will go over a month without a game heading into the AAC Tournament and can’t see Houston until the final, so the auto-bid appears to be the only way forward for SMU.
The last team on the page is Belmont, which went 24-3 during the regular season but lost the OVC Tournament in the final to Morehead State. The metrics are heavily against the Bruins but the eye-test shows that this is a quality basketball team, something that could help Belmont out if some of the mediocre power conference teams on this list flop in their conference tournaments.
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