March Madness: How many Big Ten teams will make the NCAA Tournament?

The Big Ten has been America’s deepest conference but how many of its teams will reach March Madness and play in the NCAA Tournament?

Finding a way to navigate the Big Ten has been a challenge for its 14 teams this season. The nation’s deepest conference from top-to-bottom is loaded with teams that will be seeded highly on Selection Sunday, a fact that will be evident as the Big Ten Tournament takes center stage during Championship Week.

There were points during the season where it looked like at least 10 teams would make the field of 68 out of the Big Ten, but that number has fluctuated in recent weeks. Let’s take a look at how each team stands heading into the conference tournament, starting at the top with Michigan.

How many Big Ten teams will reach March Madness?

Michigan Wolverines – Lock

The Big Ten regular-season champions lost only one game prior to last week, posting a 7-2 record against Quadrant 1 opposition and checking in at No. 3 on the NET Rankings. KenPom is also high on the Wolverines, who rank as the third-most efficient team in the country.

The only question Michigan is facing right now is whether Eli Brooks’ ankle injury will linger into the NCAA Tournament. Even if the Wolverines stumble in Indianapolis they have done enough to land on the top line in March Madness.

Illinois Fighting Illini – Lock

The Fighting Illini have come on strong down the stretch, topping Michigan and Ohio State on the road in the final week of the regular season to secure the final spot on the top line entering this week. Illinois is currently fourth in the NET rankings and is 9-5 in Quadrant 1 games, which stands as the highest Quad 1 win total of anyone in the country.

The Big Ten Tournament will offer Illinois the opportunity to potentially jump Michigan in the S-curve if they can win the league’s automatic bid. Either way, the Illini are safely in the field.

Iowa Hawkeyes – Lock

The Big Ten’s third lock is Iowa, which has avoided its seemingly annual February swoon to finish in third place in the regular season. The Hawkeyes have a loaded roster with National Player of the Year candidate Luka Garza surrounded by a cast of excellent shooters.

Iowa also rates highly in both the NET (No. 6) and KenPom (No. 4), and a tidy 7-5 record in Quadrant 1 games shows they can handle the elite competition. If the tournament started today Iowa would be entrenched on the two-line and can stay there with at least a run to the Big Ten semifinals.

Purdue Boilermakers – Lock

The Boilermakers don’t have quite the same cachet as the Big Ten’s top teams but they have developed into a very difficult out. Matt Painter has done a fantastic job retooling a roster that lost a ton of talented pieces a year ago into a Top 25 outfit that went 13-6 in the Big Ten and swept Ohio State.

Purdue did get a tough draw in the Big Ten Tournament, staring at a quarterfinal matchup with Ohio State before potential matchups with Michigan and Illinois to win the event. Finding a way to effectively navigate that gauntlet could showcase some Final Four upside for this team.

Ohio State Buckeyes – Lock

The end of the season has been tough for the Buckeyes, who dropped their final four games to fall off the top line in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State’s body of work is still tremendous, however, as the Buckeyes went 7-6 in 13 Quadrant 1 games while splitting their season series with Illinois and Iowa.

The Big Ten Tournament is important for Ohio State, which has to at least get to a semifinal rematch with Michigan to avoid dropping off the two-line. There is nothing to worry about in terms of an at-large appearance, which is definitely coming Ohio State’s way.

Wisconsin Badgers – Lock

The final Big Ten lock is Wisconsin, which is still a very good team that has been relatively disappointing compared to its lofty preseason expectations. The Badgers went just 4-9 in Quadrant 1 games with their best win coming against Loyola-Chicago in the non-conference portion of the schedule.

The metrics are also solid for Wisconsin, which is No. 26 in the NET and No. 11 in KenPom, which combined with the body of work puts the Badgers in line for a No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Sweet 16 is still a strong possibility for this group but a first-round flameout can’t be ruled out.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights – Should Be In

Rutgers was poised to make its first NCAA Tournament since 1991 last March and now can celebrate that accomplishment on Selection Sunday. The only reason the Scarlet Knights aren’t a lock is a bad loss to Nebraska last week, which is temporarily delaying the inevitable given solid metrics and a win over Illinois to highlight their resume.

Rutgers drew the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and can officially secure a lock by knocking off Indiana on Thursday. A loss won’t knock the Scarlet Knights out but it would cost them a seed line or two depending on how the rest of the bubble plays out.

Maryland Terrapins – Should Be In

The Terrapins’ roster is certainly a unique one as most of their rotation players are between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-7, which has made Mark Turgeon’s coaching job more challenging. Maryland has put together some good wins this season but a tough finish with losses to Northwestern and Penn State have at least raised the possibility of a miss.

The Big Ten Tournament brings an 8-9 matchup with Michigan State, who the Terrapins handled convincingly at the end of February in College Park, and a win there will lock up Maryland. A loss shouldn’t kill the Terrapins barring really strange circumstances but it would be enough to hurt their seeding.

Michigan State Spartans – Bubble

The Spartans were left for dead in mid-February but have had a typical Tom Izzo-esque renaissance, going 5-2 down the stretch with wins over Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State. That trio of victories came when each team was inside the top 5, an impressive stat when no other team in the country has more than one top-5 win.

Michigan State is a bubble team in name only but will graduate to should be in territory if they can top Maryland in the 8-9 game of the Big Ten Tournament. A loss could mean a bid in the First Four but few bubblers can top the resume that the Spartans can offer up.

Indiana Hoosiers – Out

The Hoosiers were safely in the field in mid-February but a stretch of six losses in seven games has really sunk Indiana. Archie Miller is firmly on the hot seat as his team really needs a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament to get into the field.

First up for the Hoosiers is a matchup against Rutgers before a potential shot at Illinois in the quarterfinals. Winning both games would merely get Indiana to .500 so winning the auto bid is the only way forward here.

Penn State Nittany Lions – Out

The best thing in Penn State’s favor is the NET, which has given them a solid rating of 40, which puts the Nittany Lions ahead of teams that are in the projected field like Missouri and Virginia Tech. The big issue here is a 10-13 overall record, which hurts a team that has good wins over Virginia Tech, Wisconsin and Maryland on its resume.

Penn State has to play on Wednesday against Northwestern before earning another shot against Wisconsin. The easiest way forward for the Nittany Lions would be to just win the auto bid by claiming the Big Ten Tournament title, which definitely won’t be easy.

Northwestern Wildcats – Out

The Wildcats have played hard this season but have simply been overwhelmed by the strength of the Big Ten. Winning the automatic bid is the only way forward for Northwestern.

Minnesota Golden Gophers – Out

This team got off to an incredible start with wins over Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa. Unfortunately for the Golden Gophers, all of those wins came at home, a big problem since the NCAA Tournament won’t be held at Williams Arena.

A poor run down the stretch took Minnesota off the bubble but if they can string together a few neutral-site wins in Indianapolis they could make things interesting. The automatic bid is still the likeliest ticket for the Golden Gophers, who would have to win five games in five days to dance.

Nebraska Cornhuskers – Out

See Northwestern.

All told, the Big Ten should send nine teams to the NCAA Tournament barring a bid thief like Indiana or Minnesota emerging. The league is very top-heavy, however, with four legitimate contenders to become the first Big Ten team to cut down the nets since Michigan State did back in 2000.

For more NCAA basketball news, analysis, opinion and features, check out more from the FanSided college basketball section to stay on top of the latest action.