NCAA Tournament bubble watch: Who’s in and who’s out ahead of final weekend action?

The final Bubble Watch of the season resets the last few at-large spots ahead of Selection Sunday.

Championship Week has been absolutely wild so far, featuring plenty of thrilling games, buzzer-beating shots, and resume-building wins. There have also been heartbreaking losses leaving teams on the bubble hoping for some luck ahead of Selection Sunday.

There is also some added intrigue this year since the first four teams out of the field can be tapped as replacement teams if a squad that makes the tournament cannot compete due to COVID-19 issues. This is becoming more relevant given the events at the ACC Tournament, where Duke and Virginia both had to withdraw after having positive tests within their Tier 1 personnel.

There has also been plenty of movement on the bubble compared to where we were at the beginning of the week, making a second edition worth doing before the action tips off today. Let’s look at the 16 teams closest to the cut line, beginning with the last four byes.

Bubble Watch — Last four byes

VCU, UCLA, Michigan State, Drake

The Rams are still alive in the A-10 Tournament, waiting to play St. Bonaventure on Sunday for a chance to claim the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. A loss there won’t hurt VCU, which should be good regardless.

UCLA is starting to get a bit nervous after fading down the stretch, dropping four in a row to end the regular season and getting knocked out in their first game of the Pac-12 Tournament by Oregon State. A win over Colorado is the best thing on the Bruins’ team sheet, which could end up sliding into First Four territory depending on how results from around the country play out.

Losing to Maryland in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament wasn’t ideal for Michigan State but their strong body of work over the past two weeks shouldn’t knock the Spartans out. Few bubble teams can match a trio of victories against Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois (albeit all at home), but with no bad losses on their team sheet Tom Izzo’s squad should at least make the First Four.

This week’s developments have been positive for Drake, which has seen several noteworthy bubble teams fall, making the Bulldogs’ 24-4 record against Division I opponents look very good. There is room to fall into the First Four for the Bulldogs but they should hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

Bubble Watch — Last four in

Louisville, Colorado State, Utah State, Syracuse

The Cardinals lost their first game in the ACC Tournament, which could make things uncomfortable for a Louisville team whose resume doesn’t look so sturdy upon deeper examination. The extent of Louisville’s good wins are a two-point win against Virginia Tech, a one-point victory against Seton Hall, and beating Western Kentucky, leaving the Cardinals vulnerable to getting passed if a lot goes wrong.

Beating Fresno State was a necessary step for Colorado State, which can feel more secure about its standing in the field based on developments around them. Tonight’s game against Utah State is basically a play-in for the winner while the loser has to sweat out the rest of the weekend.

Speaking of the Aggies, Utah State has done good work down the stretch, ripping off five straight wins. That run includes an emphatic victory over UNLV in the Mountain West Tournament but they need to add a win over the Rams to their sweep of San Diego State to get in the field.

There may not be a bigger swing of fortune for a bubble team than the one Syracuse experienced on Thursday when Reece Beekman nailed a buzzer-beating three to help Virginia knock out the Orange. A win would have put Syracuse on firmer ground but they now have the potential to get lapped by a team still playing this weekend.

Bubble Watch — First four out

Saint Louis, Ole Miss, Boise State, Memphis

The Billikens have been idle for a week after losing to St. Bonaventure in the A-10 Tournament while head coach Travis Ford looks for another game. Finding that game and winning it could be important in a bubble where one more good result could put Saint Louis in the field.

The SEC could get a seventh team in the field if Ole Miss continues its postseason surge with a win over South Carolina in the conference tournament. Beating LSU today would send the Rebels to the semifinals and a run to the finals would probably mean beating Arkansas, which would be enough to get Kermit Davis’ team in.

The Broncos are in deep trouble after losing to Nevada for a third time in the first round of the Mountain West Tournament. The Wolf Pack aren’t a bad team but having three losses against one team that won’t make the field isn’t a good selling point for a Boise State team that also has a bad Quadrant 4 loss to Fresno State on its resume.

Memphis is set to take the court today for the first time since having their hearts broken by a buzzer-beater in Houston on Sunday. The bubble has played out nicely for the Tigers, who can earn a rematch with the Cougars in the semifinals, which would be the kind of signature win that could put them over the top.

Bubble Watch — Next four out

Seton Hall, Xavier, SMU, Belmont

The team with the most potential movement here is Seton Hall, which beat St. John’s to knock the Red Storm off the bubble in the Big East Tournament. The Pirates lost a Quadrant 1 opportunity when Villanova was upset by Georgetown but the upshot is that Seton Hall has an easier path to the final. Getting there and losing would leave Seton Hall at 15-13 so the auto bid is the likeliest path in.

Xavier has faded badly down the stretch, getting bounced in the first round of the Big East Tournament by Butler, leading the program to search for a game to try and bolster their at-large chances. The Musketeers should get on the phone with Saint Louis to try and set up a game since it would be in both programs’ interest to take this opportunity to pick up a win against a fellow bubbler.

SMU hasn’t played Feb. 8 due to a COVID pause and is on this page solely due to decent metrics. The only shot the Mustangs have a quality win would come against Houston in the AAC final and at that point, it would be better off to just win the automatic bid.

We’ll close out the bubble watch with a shoutout to Belmont, which dominated the OVC only to lose in the conference tournament. Two of the Bruins’ three regular-season losses came without star center Nick Muszynski, which should factor into the committee’s thinking when weighing Belmont’s ability to beat good teams in the tournament.

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