March Madness 2021: Ranking each region by degree of difficulty to reach Final Four

Which NCAA Tournament region has the most difficult path to the Final Four in March Madness?

The time has come to examine the NCAA Tournament bracket and make your picks for who is going to the Final Four in Indianapolis. All 67 games in the tournament will take place in Indiana as part of a March Madness bubble but other than that the selection committee treated the event like any other, seeding the teams into four regions and making a few questionable choices along the way.

Despite the committee’s best efforts to adhere to its seeding curve to balance the brackets, the strength of the Big Ten and Big 12 helped create some paths to the Final Four that are more difficult than others. Let’s take a look at each region’s path to the Final Four from easiest to hardest, starting with the West Region.

March Madness region rankings

4. West Region

The top overall seed, Gonzaga, plays in the West Region and appropriately got an easier draw than the other No. 1 seeds. The Bulldogs have already faced the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in their region during the regular season, winning handily over Iowa (coming off of a COVID pause no less), Kansas and Virginia.

There are also COVID concerns facing both the Jayhawks and Cavaliers, both of whom had to withdraw from their conference tournaments after positive tests, increasing the likelihood they could be replaced by Louisville or Colorado State. Anything short of a Final Four trip for Gonzaga would be a major disappointment.

3. South Region

The South Region is extremely top-heavy with a stacked top three seeds in Baylor, Ohio State and Arkansas. Going beyond those three, however, and there is plenty of room for upsets in the rest of the draw.

Purdue did well in the Big Ten to earn the No. 4 seed but isn’t as battle-tested as the league’s top dogs while Villanova lost Collin Gillespie to a season-ending injury and hasn’t looked the same without him. The South also has a couple of high-major teams coming off of down years, such as Wisconsin and Florida, making this only a slightly tricky path for Baylor to follow.

2. East Region

The second-most difficult region is the East, where Michigan is a vulnerable top seed since Isaiah Livers’ health is an open question. Even if Livers is good to go, the Wolverines will have their hands full with a strong 2-3 combo of Alabama and Texas while Florida State and Colorado could be in line to push Michigan in the Sweet 16.

There are also some very dangerous teams that have flown under the radar of late, including UConn, LSU, St. Bonaventure and Georgetown, which just won four games in four days to steal the Big East’s automatic bid. There is plenty of potential for chaos in the East bracket.

1. Midwest Region

One of the annual staples of March Madness that we missed out on this year was John Calipari coming on ESPN to complain about how Kentucky’s draw was unfair. That honor could fall to Illinois this year as the Fighting Illini were given a ridiculously hard path to get to the Final Four.

Houston is no pushover as a No. 2 seed while West Virginia is the No. 3. Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State could be awaiting the Fighting Illini in the Sweet 16 if they can get past Loyola-Chicago in the Round of 32, a top 10 team according to the metrics that got extremely underseeded as an 8.

Add in San Diego State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee and Rutgers to the list of teams that are capable of going on deep runs out of the Midwest. This region is the most stacked in the bracket and is by far the one with the most difficult path to the Final Four.

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